Baileys 3/5/14 versus Roger

Below are selected errors from a match against Roger in the weekly Baileys tournament.


************

I lead 6 away 7 away and have 65 to play.  I want to point or hit loose but rolled this brick instead.  What to do?

is Roger score: 0 pip: 101

7 point match

pip: 128 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=----aCEB-B-Ab----c-bBc-bb-:0:0:1:65:1:0:0:7:10

to play 65

1.	XG Roller++	11/5 6/1	eq: -0.306
	Player: Opponent: 39.79% (G:5.96% B:0.12%) 60.21% (G:6.26% B:0.13%)
2.	XG Roller++	11/5 9/4*	eq: -0.366 (-0.060)
	Player: Opponent: 38.87% (G:7.32% B:0.21%) 61.13% (G:12.97% B:0.18%)
3.	3-ply	7/1 6/1	eq: -0.590 (-0.284)
	Player: Opponent: 33.65% (G:4.97% B:0.11%) 66.35% (G:11.52% B:0.17%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I hit loose anyway with 11/5, 9/4*  The problem is I break the prime, leave two blots and 17 shots.  Too rich.



Best  was the wimpy 11/5, 6/1.  Roger doesn't always escape, when I can hope to roll a better attacking number next time.

***************

Next roll.  Another 65 to play.

is Roger score: 0 pip: 97

7 point match

pip: 117 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=----ADEBaA--b----c-bBc-bb-:0:0:1:65:1:0:0:7:10

to play 65

1.	XG Roller++	9/4 7/1	eq: -0.498
	Player: Opponent: 35.02% (G:2.28% B:0.03%) 64.98% (G:3.38% B:0.15%)
2.	XG Roller++	9/3 6/1	eq: -0.508 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 34.36% (G:1.94% B:0.03%) 65.64% (G:2.36% B:0.06%)
3.	XG Roller++	20/9	eq: -0.634 (-0.136)
	Player: Opponent: 30.81% (G:2.96% B:0.09%) 69.19% (G:5.29% B:0.06%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I got "creative," breaking anchor with 20/9.  I was trying to put direct pressure on his outfield blot when the risk wasn't too big.  Roger only has one builder in range.

But this is crazy!!  I need the anchor, I need the contact.  So stay I must.  The race isn't hopeless so I should stay on the anchor until the bitter end, building up the board in the process.  9/4, 7/1.

 ****************

 Score is 6 away 6 away.  Cube action?

is Roger score: 1 pip: 146

7 point match

pip: 137 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=-a--BaDBB---eC----Bcc--b--:0:0:1:00:1:1:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.44% (G:22.20% B:0.65%)	66.52% (G:22.24% B:0.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.56% (G:7.63% B:0.23%)	33.48% (G:7.62% B:0.23%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.501	+1.069
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.722 (-0.084)
Double/Take:	+0.806
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.194)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

 Another roll, another missed double.

The gammon value is slightly elevated (about .55) and there are too many gammons to pass up,  I need to cube to activate those gammons.  Also, even if things don't work out, it will be along time before Roger can ever recube.

**********

I lead 4 away 6 away.  Roger doubles.  Take or Drop?

is Roger score: 1 pip: 85

7 point match

pip: 157 score: 3 is Bill

XGID=---aBBBB-B---B-b---bcbBcbA:0:0:-1:00:3:1:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	58.00% (G:33.95% B:0.23%)	58.18% (G:33.94% B:0.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	42.00% (G:5.60% B:0.15%)	41.82% (G:5.61% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.479	+0.983
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.497 (-0.191)
Double/Take:	+0.687
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.313)
Best Cube action: Double / Taker

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

This position has gammon danger written in large capital letters.  I dropped.

And yet it is a take.  I get gammoned a lot but I also win a lot.  Even though this is a triple whopper I don't feel too bad - I think this is a tough one.

*****************

I lead 3 away 5 away and have 53 to play from the air.  Keep in mind Roger will likely double for the match next turn.

is Roger score: 2 pip: 71

7 point match

pip: 73 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=-BE-C-D----a---b---b-bccbA:2:-1:1:52:4:2:0:7:10

to play 52

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/20 6/4	eq: -0.818
	Player: Opponent: 31.86% (G:0.93% B:0.01%) 68.14% (G:0.79% B:0.01%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/18	eq: -0.865 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 30.10% (G:0.18% B:0.00%) 69.90% (G:0.56% B:0.00%)
3.	3-ply	Bar/20 4/2	eq: -0.863 (-0.045)
	Player: Opponent: 30.07% (G:1.27% B:0.01%) 69.93% (G:1.08% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

It's a take after either play so the pending 8 cube doesn't really matter.

 I moved Bar/18 while the best play is Bar/20, 6/4.

I thought not getting hit was the most important thing in this position.  After Bar/18 I count 17 hits (13 threes plus 61 ad 52) while after Bar/20, 6/4 I count 20 hits (15 fives plus 63 and 33 and 11).

Also Bar/18 advances the most in the race.

Yet bar/20, 6/4 is significantly better.  I think the difference is that when you do get hit you'd rather get hit inside than outside.  Of the 20 hitters when you stay put on the 5 point, I count 8 which leave a return shot (41 32 65 63).  By comparison, I get no direct returns when hit on the bar point.

Considering how 61 and 43 play could be a factor as well.  If I stay back on the 5 point then I get a shot with these rolls while I am on the bar the other way.