Baileys 3/5/14 v Greg Merriman

Here are selected errors from a seven point match against Greg Merriman.  Venue is the weekly tournament at Baileys.


First Game of 7 point match and I am on roll.  Cube action?

is Greg Merriman score: 0 pip: 158

7 point match

pip: 147 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=aa---BD-C---eD--Ac-c-A--b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71.77% (G:20.29% B:0.75%)	72.02% (G:20.08% B:0.72%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28.23% (G:5.47% B:0.11%)	27.98% (G:5.48% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.594	+1.220
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.898 (-0.102)
Double/Take:	+1.014 (+0.014)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed this strong double, which the computer thinks is already a pass.  What's going on here?

Position:  I have the better board  (5 point better than Greg's ace point because I can prime and attack while Greg can only attack)
Pips: I have a small race lead
Threats:  Not much.  I guess to either escape another man, or make another inner point or for Greg to dance again.

So I have the advantage in all phases of the game translates to a must double.  By the same token, with a disadvantage everywhere the take is in question.  Greg is only slightly worse everywhere so I'd probably take.  I guess this shows you the power of the 5 point and at the same time, how bad having the ace point is.

This is all general thoughts, which is how I tend to think about the game.  Looking at the numbers, I already have a 70/30% advantage which is very strong by itself.  Throw in some abvoe average gammons (20%) and that is simply too much.

***************

Later in the same game.  I have doubled and Greg has turned the game around.  How to play these double aces?

is Greg Merriman score: 0 pip: 108

7 point match

pip: 136 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=---B-BCbD----B-a-cbc--Bbb-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:7:10

to play 11

1.	XG Roller++	22/21(2) 6/4	eq: -0.213
	Player: Opponent: 47.46% (G:9.92% B:0.27%) 52.54% (G:7.58% B:0.09%)
2.	XG Roller++	22/20(2)	eq: -0.314 (-0.100)
	Player: Opponent: 43.06% (G:7.78% B:0.21%) 56.94% (G:6.50% B:0.06%)
3.	3-ply	22/21(2) 5/4(2)	eq: -0.279 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 45.24% (G:8.64% B:0.25%) 54.76% (G:7.44% B:0.08%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the best advanced anchor, moving 22/20(2).  Even though I am behind in the race, I thought it made logical sense to gain maximum influence over the outfield.  I am fighting against Greg's anchor on my barpoint after all. 

The best play is 22/21(2), 6/4.  I think at least part of the reason is tactical.  When I advance to the 4 point, I make Greg's sixes a bit awkward.  By advancing all the way his sixes simply dump behind me.  Also, I am down in the race so I want contact.  Advancing to the 4 point is one of those "middling" plays (Robertie's term) which keeps contact and outfield control.

****************

Next I trail 7 away 5 away and have this 61.  Your play?

is Greg Merriman score: 2 pip: 145

7 point match

pip: 142 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-a---BDbC---dD--Ba-ba-b-b-:0:0:1:61:0:2:0:7:10

to play 61

1.	XG Roller++	8/1*	eq: +0.303
	Player: Opponent: 56.35% (G:11.76% B:0.35%) 43.65% (G:10.62% B:0.18%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/2 6/5	eq: +0.209 (-0.094)
	Player: Opponent: 54.45% (G:9.42% B:0.31%) 45.55% (G:10.06% B:0.15%)
3.	3-ply	16/15 16/10	eq: +0.205 (-0.098)
	Player: Opponent: 55.47% (G:8.48% B:0.40%) 44.53% (G:10.79% B:0.11%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I dumped deep with 8/2 and diversified with 6/5.

The computer rates this a whopper sized error and thinks I should just hit loose with 8/1*.

Probably the reason is by not hitting, I give Greg full use of his next roll.  And he is bound to do something good.  Ace's hit.  Sixes jump to the bar point.  Anything else plays down from the midpoint and/or covers his five point.

By contrast when I hit, 4 four numbers dance.  The hitting numbers 14, 15, 16, 12 are a mixed blessing.  They hit but leave return shot for me.  Similarly, other numbers which enter but don't hit don't play so great.  Rolls like 24 for example.  Add it all up and I can clearly see why hitting loose is better here.

***************

Later in the same game.  Cube action?

is Greg Merriman score: 2 pip: 133

7 point match

pip: 133 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-aA-CCBb----cC--B--caAc-b-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.84% (G:26.93% B:0.90%)	64.85% (G:28.44% B:0.83%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.16% (G:9.76% B:0.22%)	35.15% (G:10.29% B:0.25%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.481	+1.041
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.767 (-0.158)
Double/Take:	+0.926
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.074)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

 I missed another strong double.   I wasn't sure what was going on.  The race is close and we both have three point boards.  Even if I hit I figure I have a lot to do still, so better roll.

A superficial analysis.  The race is close, that much is true.  My board is much better than Greg's.  I am shooting at a blot and there are gammons in the air, so I have significant threats.  Probably most important, and what I overlooked, is that Greg's game is very weak.  His front game is overextended, having made the ace point already and with a dilly builder on the 3 point.  Greg's position is stripped and he will need to roll well even if I throw a brick next turn.  It will probably be a long time before Greg can ever recube this position.

**************

After next exchange.  I rolled a joker, hitting and covering.  Cube action?

is Greg Merriman score: 2 pip: 153

7 point match

pip: 130 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=aaB-BCBb----cC--B--cA-c-b-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	76.66% (G:42.11% B:1.41%)	76.79% (G:42.58% B:1.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23.34% (G:5.37% B:0.16%)	23.21% (G:5.28% B:0.13%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.917	+1.955
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+1.165
Double/Take:	+1.851 (+0.686)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (-0.165)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 19.4%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I'm sure all of my readers knew this position was too good.

I didn't.  Having misjudged the first position by not doubling, my evaluation was still off here.  I simply cashed.

Stick's guideline on being Too Good could have helped me here.  Whenever you know the opponent is going to drop in an instant, this is a clue to think real hard about playing on.  After all, after what sequence is Greg going to take next time?  Not too likely (although Greg can be unpredictable so you never know).  Another reason to "slow play" these games is psychological.  Even if the game suddenly swings from Too Good to Double/Take your opponent will probably drop anyway.  It feels like a win to survive the gammon and lose a single game, so most players are happy to drop.  And even if your opponent has the mettle to take, most of the time your error turns into a two point win or even a four point gammon anyway.  Meaning you are more likely rewarded for your mistake than punished.  This is the sort of stuff that makes Ray Fogerlund such an excellent tournament player in my opinion.

*****************

5 away 5 away and I am on roll.  Cube action?

is Greg Merriman score: 2 pip: 161

7 point match

pip: 141 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=--Ba-aDBBAa-eB-----dc---B-:0:0:1:00:2:2:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	58.93% (G:31.08% B:1.33%)	58.97% (G:31.21% B:1.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	41.07% (G:11.53% B:0.73%)	41.03% (G:11.56% B:0.74%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.365	+0.848
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.471 (-0.055)
Double/Take:	+0.526
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.474)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed yet another double.

This one is mostly score based.  For money it's a borderline Double, but at this score the gammon value is elevated at .65  so I must double to activate these gammons.

Another way to look at this is from Mochy's guidelines to 5 point match.  At 5 away you strategy is to win four points!  And you can't score a four point gammon until you send the cube.