Fleet Underwood v Jim

I was fortunate to record all but one match from the recent Fleet Underwood tournament.  All matches are 9 points and the tournament was double elimination.  I intend on reviewing these matches here.  I played Jim Lawrence in round 1.  What follows are selected blunders from this match.

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9 away 9 away and I have 63 to play.

is Jim Lawrence score: 0 pip: 125

9 point match

pip: 115 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=--ACBBB-A--bdB---b-bBcaa--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:9:10

to play 63

1.	XG Roller++	20/14 8/5	eq: +0.448
	Player: Opponent: 63.28% (G:9.04% B:0.18%) 36.72% (G:4.63% B:0.14%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/10 13/7	eq: +0.321 (-0.127)
	Player: Opponent: 59.48% (G:9.20% B:0.14%) 40.52% (G:2.83% B:0.11%)
3.	3-ply	20/14 5/2	eq: +0.345 (-0.102)
	Player: Opponent: 60.49% (G:10.92% B:0.20%) 39.51% (G:6.32% B:0.27%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved two down from the midpoint, 13/10, 13/7.  I considered but rejected the best play 20/14, 8/5.  My strategy was to bide my time and wait for doubles.  Clearing the midpoint gives the most amount of wait time for these doubles to occur.

However, I have a significant race lead, Jim's board is double-blotted, and I have a good board already, so now is the time to make a move.

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I lead 7 away 9 away and have 41 to play.

is Jim Lawrence score: 0 pip: 145

9 point match

pip: 150 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=-Ab--CC-C---bBb--bad--Cb--:0:0:1:41:2:0:0:9:10

to play 41

1.	XG Roller++	8/4 5/4	eq: +0.273
	Player: Opponent: 56.81% (G:20.19% B:0.75%) 43.19% (G:11.07% B:0.44%)
2.	XG Roller++	22/18* 6/5	eq: +0.171 (-0.102)
	Player: Opponent: 55.16% (G:19.29% B:1.02%) 44.84% (G:13.92% B:0.61%)
3.	XG Roller++	22/21 22/18*	eq: +0.137 (-0.136)
	Player: Opponent: 55.13% (G:19.90% B:1.22%) 44.87% (G:16.29% B:1.05%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I couldn't pass up the hit and 6/5 looked insipid so I moved 22/18*, 22/21.

This gains in the race but the gains will probably be short lived.  Jim hits back with all aces from the air, as well as 24, 34, 44, 26, and 36.  So that's at least 20 numbers where the hit accomplishes nothing.  Additionally I leave four blots.  11, 14, 16, and 22 hit two blots!  My conclusion: tactically this blows up in my face a lot so the small pip gain isn't necessary.

Strategically this game is not about pips but position.  41 plays really well by making the 4 point and I should just do that.  This establishes a broken four prime against Jim's back men and makes the "rack" (the best 3 point board 4-5-6).  This is quite strong and long lasting asset for the rest of the game.  Additionally while I have a killed checker on the ace (which argues against priming), Jim has two checkers past my back anchor so I am actually ahead in the priming game. 

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Later in same game.  Cube action?

is Jim Lawrence score: 0 pip: 141

9 point match

pip: 149 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=---cCCBB-----aA-b-ccBB-c--:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.35% (G:19.79% B:0.79%)	70.50% (G:19.60% B:0.73%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.65% (G:5.63% B:0.16%)	29.50% (G:5.62% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.561	+1.124
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.771 (-0.052)
Double/Take:	+0.823
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.177)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed a solid double here.

Position: I have the stronger position for sure.  Jim has 3 men behind my four prime (good), and Jim has 3 checkers on his 2 point (bad)

Pips: I trail in the race;

Threats:  I have a free rolling ace plus some combos to hit Jim's outfield blot.

So I guess 2 of 3 translates to a double.

I figured I was down in the race and still have four guys back ...  how could this be a double?  I probably didn't realize just how bad Jim's position is.  Those 3 guys on the deuce point really blow, and the three men behind my 4 prime could prove a problem as well.  Finally if I hit I rate to dominate the outfield, which would be very strong for me.

***************

Jim doubles.  I lead 6 away 9 away.  Take or Drop?

is Jim Lawrence score: 0 pip: 131

9 point match

pip: 145 score: 3 is Bill

XGID=-a--a-E-D---bD-AAabdb--b--:0:0:-1:00:3:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.73% (G:35.83% B:0.76%)	67.76% (G:36.00% B:0.70%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.27% (G:5.45% B:0.27%)	32.24% (G:5.49% B:0.28%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.651	+1.404
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.856 (-0.144)
Double/Take:	+1.267 (+0.267)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Hopefully everyone dropped that one.  I foolishly took!

I know this position is bad and gammon danger blinking in bright letters ....

But at the same time I was thinking ....

I am not on the bar yet, I could win this.  Too optimistic!

I get hit with all 3's and 4's plus 21 24 22 and 66.  That's a full 27 numbers!  At this point will have 12 or 13 men participating in the blitz.  Very dangerous indeed.

And even if Jim misses I got nothing.  I have no board, no offense.  i will have to somehow tiptoe home dodging bullet after bullet when any subsequent hit puts me back on the G-ball.  Very bad take.

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I lead 5 away 6 away and have 43 to play.

is Jim Lawrence score: 3 pip: 134

9 point match

pip: 154 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=-a-BC-BAB-a-c---AbbdB-AAb-:0:0:1:43:4:3:0:9:10

to play 43

1.	XG Roller++	20/16 4/1*	eq: -0.154
	Player: Opponent: 47.97% (G:17.85% B:0.51%) 52.03% (G:19.39% B:1.02%)
2.	XG Roller++	7/3 4/1*	eq: -0.302 (-0.148)
	Player: Opponent: 44.16% (G:15.46% B:0.41%) 55.84% (G:18.49% B:0.69%)
3.	XG Roller++	23/16	eq: -0.302 (-0.148)
	Player: Opponent: 43.73% (G:12.16% B:0.35%) 56.27% (G:14.74% B:0.34%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the advanced anchor 23/16. True it leaves a direct six shot but I reckoned it was important to fight for the outfield as well as to get that man into the game from the 2 point.

Apparently the correct play is the brave 20/16, 4/1*.  This cold blooded play didn't cross my radar.  After all, it leaves five blots and abandons the anchor at the same time!!

I guess the danger is mostly in your head as this play traded 5% extra winning chances for 5% additional gammon losses.  If you are hit you rate to make an anchor or two somewhere with a playable game.  And you do have the better board.  He might even dance with 9 of his rolls or even miss with a couple others.