Crash 1-16

I recorded three matched from live play.  These are errors taken from the weekly metro north tournament on 1/16/12.

First position is against Lacey.  I have doubled already and the score is 7 away 7 away.  I must leave a shot with 65.

is Lacey score: 0 pip: 112

7 point match

pip: 98 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-aB-DBBb--C--B---a-bbcbb--:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:7:10

to play 65

1.	XG Roller+	13/2	eq: -0.123
	Player: Opponent: 50.40% (G:7.17% B:0.20%) 49.60% (G:7.70% B:0.12%)
2.	XG Roller+	10/5 10/4	eq: -0.177 (-0.053)
	Player: Opponent: 49.08% (G:7.23% B:0.28%) 50.92% (G:9.94% B:0.25%)
3.	1-ply	13/8 10/4	eq: -0.860 (-0.736)
	Player: Opponent: 32.29% (G:6.63% B:0.24%) 67.71% (G:27.11% B:0.66%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

The choice is between more shots now and less future jeopardy, -or-, less shots now and ongoing shot jeopardy into the future.

I chose 10/5, 10/4 (less shots now), which is a mistake.

My position is so stiff after this play that I will likely leave more shots in the future anyway.  So I might as well go for it now 13/2,  This will be easier to clean up if I get away with it. 

**************
Game two.  I trail 7 away 5 away and am on roll.  Cube action?

is Lacey score: 2 pip: 150

7 point match

pip: 151 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-b-BB-B-B--BcC-a-bad--b-B-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	63.13% (G:24.37% B:2.45%)	63.00% (G:24.28% B:2.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	36.87% (G:11.09% B:0.56%)	37.00% (G:11.12% B:0.57%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.423	+0.901
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.684 (-0.098)
Double/Take:	+0.782
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.218)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed the cube here, which appears to be score based.  For money, it is a borderline No Double / Take.  I have the better board and half the numbers hit (any 6 except 22 plus 54) plus 44 and 41 are pretty good.  Other numbers and the game continues.  I suppose that's reason enough to cube.  It "worked out" for me though, since  Lacey took a .19 drop next turn.  I was rolling home towads a gammon when an accident happened in the bearoff.

******
A few rolls later we arrive at this position.  I am on roll holding a 4 cube and trailing 7 away 5 away.  Cube Action?

is Lacey score: 2 pip: 114

7 point match

pip: 53 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-BBCEab---------b-Abbbb-b-:2:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 4-ply	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	57.21% (G:15.25% B:0.09%)	57.50% (G:17.07% B:0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	42.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	42.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.338	+0.737
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.571 (-0.166)
Redouble/Take:	+0.737
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.263)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

I actually got this one right and recubed to 8. 

I figure if Lacey drops he trails 3 away 5 away.  Taking puts the match on the line so his take point is is his equity at 3 away 5 away or about 35%.  I am a favorite now but he must have a take since he has decent hitting chances.  On the other hand, most likely I win or lose the game on the next exchange (he hits me or he doesn't) so I need to cube now while I am in the window.

**************
In my next match against Brandon, I blew double nicks like I always do.  I lead 6 away 7 away and have 55 to play.

 

is Brandon score: 0 pip: 126

7 point match

pip: 135 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=-aB-B-C-B---bE---cbe-b--A-:0:0:1:55:1:0:0:7:10

to play 55

1.	XG Roller+	13/3(2)	eq: +0.112
	Player: Opponent: 51.78% (G:15.12% B:0.31%) 48.22% (G:9.09% B:0.35%)
2.	XG Roller+	13/3 8/3 6/1*	eq: -0.031 (-0.142)
	Player: Opponent: 48.50% (G:15.61% B:0.24%) 51.50% (G:13.22% B:0.62%)
3.	3-ply	13/3 8/3(2)	eq: -0.047 (-0.159)
	Player: Opponent: 47.96% (G:12.63% B:0.20%) 52.04% (G:9.64% B:0.32%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

I jumped off the bridge, making the 3 point and hitting loose (13/3, 8/3, 6/1*).  I thought I was putting tremedous pressure on Brandon by making a 4 point board and putting him in the air.

This is simply the wrong idea.  Even if Brandon dances I still don't have a cube.  Meanwhile I give him a free shot for no reason, and his entering 5's play OK as well.  So 16/36 he dances and I like it but I still don't have a cube so I don't gain too much.  13/36 times he hits and I am in deep shit.  And the other 7/36 he enters and the game continues.  Too much risk for not enough gain.

Much better was the natural 13/3(2) when the game is about even.

***************
Later in the match versus Brandon.  I lead 2 away 5 away and have 41 to play.

is Brandon score: 2 pip: 159

7 point match

pip: 143 score: 5 is Bill

XGID=-AbB-aC-C---cDb--A-bbab--A:0:0:1:41:5:2:0:7:10

to play 41

1.	XG Roller+	Bar/21* 6/5*	eq: -0.193
	Player: Opponent: 49.84% (G:18.36% B:1.06%) 50.16% (G:16.52% B:0.98%)
2.	XG Roller+	Bar/24 17/13	eq: -0.420 (-0.227)
	Player: Opponent: 45.23% (G:13.48% B:0.60%) 54.77% (G:19.52% B:0.58%)
3.	4-ply	Bar/21* 17/16	eq: -0.212 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 48.75% (G:15.11% B:0.71%) 51.25% (G:15.88% B:0.72%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

This was by biggest blunder of the night.  All those blots scared me and I played the wimpy Bar/24, 17/13.  I figured I was up the race and shouldn't leave 4 blots strewn around the board, especially at this score.

However the natural Bar/21*, 6/5* is still correct.  He doesn't have that much ammunition in the zone so I really don't have that much to be afraid of.  If he rolls a dud I may make the 5-point, a major gain.  And even if he hits, most likely I will be able to at least anchor before he is able to make an effective attack.

***************
Same game.  Score still 2 away 5 away and I have 63 to play.

is Brandon score: 2 pip: 144

7 point match

pip: 109 score: 5 is Bill

XGID=-BbBbBB-B--AaD----abbabb--:0:0:1:63:5:2:0:7:10

to play 63

1.	XG Roller+	13/7 11/8	eq: +0.378
	Player: Opponent: 61.68% (G:25.32% B:1.59%) 38.32% (G:9.87% B:0.18%)
2.	XG Roller+	13/10 11/5	eq: +0.313 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 60.22% (G:23.60% B:1.60%) 39.78% (G:9.79% B:0.18%)
3.	1-ply	11/5 8/5	eq: -0.067 (-0.445)
	Player: Opponent: 52.14% (G:17.72% B:0.80%) 47.86% (G:16.17% B:0.43%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

I counted shots again and went for least shots theory.  Accordinly I played 13/10, 11/5.
Backgammon is rarely so simple as shot counting. 

Here better was 13/7, 11/8.  My play leaves 16 shots (all 6s plus 51 54 33) while the better play leaves 20 shots (all 3s and 5s).  But there is a duplication at stake.  He needs 3's to hit and 3's to cover.  Also at play here is if I am missed I make the bar next turn which would be very favorable to me.  Assuming he doesn't hit and I then cover ...  Brandon will bust his timing and be forced to leave the 4 point at an unfavorable moment.

************
Still later in the same game.  I lead 2 away 5 away and am on roll.  Cube action?

is Brandon score: 2 pip: 100

7 point match

pip: 88 score: 5 is Bill

XGID=-BbB-DC-B----B--b---bccba-:0:0:1:00:5:2:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	78.99% (G:6.19% B:0.14%)	80.41% (G:6.92% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.01% (G:1.05% B:0.03%)	19.59% (G:0.97% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.684	+1.890
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.921 (-0.079)
Double/Take:	+1.259 (+0.259)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

I misjudged the position now, and on the next several subsequent rolls.  This is large double/pass which I missed several times in a row.

I do know that as the leader at 2 away many away (like 5 away or more) you want to double a holding game type position like a money game.  The trailer has a moneyish type take point, since when he rewhips to 4 and wins he doesn't win the match.  So I knew I should double as per money but I just didn't realize how strong my position really was.

I figured I have the open 4 point plus the race isn't gin so my game wasn't that strong.  This judgment was way off as in fact the position is a huge drop.  I guess with the race close Brandon just can't hold everything.  If he runs early then he disengages into an unfavorable race, when the open 4-point won't matter at tall.  On the other hand, if Brandon stays back on the duece point waiting for a shot by the time a shot appears (if it appears at all) then his home board is likely to be crunched.

In short, his "two-way" game of hitting and racing is probably just a mirage.  Something I didn't realize over-the-board.

***********
Next position is against Dmitriy.  First game of 7 point match and I have 52 to play.

is Dmitriy score: 0 pip: 157

7 point match

pip: 158 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-A--b-D-C---dE--ac-eA---A-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:7:10

to play 52

1.	XG Roller+	13/11 6/1	eq: -0.282
	Player: Opponent: 43.47% (G:9.43% B:0.24%) 56.53% (G:14.65% B:0.54%)
2.	XG Roller+	20/13	eq: -0.339 (-0.057)
	Player: Opponent: 43.24% (G:6.28% B:0.15%) 56.76% (G:15.59% B:0.36%)
3.	4-ply	20/18 6/1	eq: -0.299 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 43.34% (G:8.14% B:0.16%) 56.66% (G:15.81% B:0.47%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

I fleed to the midpoint, 20/13.

I noticed that the top 4 plays all involved covering the ace-point.  This seems to confirm the adage that once you hit loose on the ace-point you should generally cover it at the first opportunity.

Placing 6 checkers on the midpoint is very stiff.  Making the ace accomplishes something - in an exchange of hits he may dance on my 2 point board.  I also unstack the midpoint which will diversify good rolls next time.  If I don't get pointed on ... I may anchor next time or make an offensive point.

As always, it pays to take calculated risks in the early game rather than play safe and stiff and drift into bad games later.