Teknikadam

Below are blunders from an online match versus Teknikadam.

First game of 7 point match and I have 52 to play.

is Teknikadam score: 0 pip: 136

7 point match

pip: 163 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a--B-C-C-A-dC---d-dB--bA-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:7:10

to play 52

1.	XG Roller++	13/11 10/5	eq: -0.025
	Player: Opponent: 49.62% (G:13.23% B:0.35%) 50.38% (G:14.59% B:0.55%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/6	eq: -0.108 (-0.083)
	Player: Opponent: 46.40% (G:11.63% B:0.26%) 53.60% (G:11.27% B:0.33%)
3.	XG Roller++	10/5 8/6	eq: -0.125 (-0.100)
	Player: Opponent: 46.45% (G:12.12% B:0.30%) 53.55% (G:13.39% B:0.45%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

I went with the pedestrian 13/6, not understanding the position.

I have 3 back to 1 back, have a defensive anchor and am downin the race.  These are all classic Magriel indicators that a bold play is called for.  I need to use my checkers aggressively to develop an offense.  13/11, 10/5 puts my limited offensive checkers to best use while the risk/reward is favorable.  I get good sixes whether he hits or not, and again the "cost" of getting hit is low in this position.  This seems to be case of where not taking a risk is the biggest risk of all.

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Later in the same game and I have a 51 to play.

is Teknikadam score: 0 pip: 113

7 point match

pip: 150 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a--BBC-CA--b----d-dCA-ca-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:7:10

to play 51

1.	XG Roller++	21/16 8/7	eq: +0.151
	Player: Opponent: 55.83% (G:13.42% B:0.48%) 44.17% (G:16.70% B:0.33%)
2.	XG Roller++	21/15	eq: +0.108 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 52.82% (G:10.94% B:0.33%) 47.18% (G:10.04% B:0.13%)
3.	XG Roller++	8/7 6/1*	eq: +0.100 (-0.050)
	Player: Opponent: 53.59% (G:15.26% B:0.39%) 46.41% (G:16.87% B:0.44%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Once again my play reveals a lack of understanding.  I moved 20/14 trying to keep contact on his side of the board while duplicating twos.

The best play jumps out to the outfield while slotting the bar.  I have a strong offense and by slotting 8/7 I am threatening to form a solid 5-prime.  I also challenge the outfield.  I think the key here is how weak my opponent's home board is.  He has only a two point board, plus a loosie on the ace and a dilly builder on the 2-point.  Magriels Risk/Reward criteria are once again pointing to a bold play.  4 back to 1, down in the race, I have an anchor, he has a loose blot in his board.  Going from "sucks" to "sucks more" isn't that much of a loss after all.  Meanwhile, the upside potential is very large as I may form a 5-prime next roll.  Even if he hits I may hit back - an exchange of hits definitely favors me.  And even if he rolls a perfecta, say a hit and cover the game isn't over as I will be 75% to reenter when the game still continues as Teknikadam will still have work to do after that.

One last point.  The second best play, 8/7, 6/1* also involves slotting the bar.  Then the top two plays involve a checker play you didn't make (like slotting), this is a big sign you butchered the position.

****************
I lead 6 away 7 away and have a 43 to play.

is Teknikadam score: 0 pip: 141

7 point match

pip: 132 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a---bEBB--CbC---b-c-bc---:0:0:1:43:1:0:0:7:10

to play 43

1.	XG Roller++	13/6	eq: +0.296
	Player: Opponent: 59.57% (G:5.75% B:0.18%) 40.43% (G:7.88% B:0.11%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/10 11/7	eq: +0.080 (-0.216)
	Player: Opponent: 54.72% (G:7.21% B:0.33%) 45.28% (G:13.25% B:0.31%)
3.	3-ply	11/7 6/3	eq: +0.206 (-0.090)
	Player: Opponent: 58.37% (G:5.92% B:0.15%) 41.63% (G:9.76% B:0.11%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

This time I erred the other way.  I played bold when a wimpy play was called for.
The safe but ugly 13/6 is best.  I am up in race and outboarded so my strategy should be to simply try and come home safely.  Don't take unneccessary chances and try to win a clean race.  Even though 13/6 looks bad getting hit is huge so I just can't justify taking that risk here.

I did in fact leave a shot for no reason, moving 13/10, 11/7.  As per above, this the wrong idea.
Note that while volunteering a shot is wrong, my way of leaving a blot is an inferior way to do it!  11/7, 6/3 is best, shifting a spare, unstacking the heavy 6-point while leaving less hitting rolls.  11/8, 6/2 is similar, slotting an inferior point but yielding one less shot.

***************

In the next position I trail 4 away 3 away and am on roll.  Cube action?

is Teknikadam score: 4 pip: 153

7 point match

pip: 130 score: 3 is Chutzpah

XGID=---bC-C-C--AeE---b-bc---a-:0:0:1:00:3:4:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	74.37% (G:6.51% B:0.17%)	74.27% (G:6.30% B:0.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	25.63% (G:2.52% B:0.07%)	25.73% (G:2.44% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.522	+1.163
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.923 (-0.054)
Double/Take:	+0.977
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.023)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed the cube here.  While it isn't a whopper, you always hate to missa cube turn.
I thought I needed to make another point in front of the anchor (9, 7 or 5) before I was really threatening anything.  In fact, it looks like that is exactly the threat!  If I make any of these points then the opponent will probably ahve a drop.  Important is the race lead.  23 pips up against the 3-point game is a lot.

Memo... For money the cube is still correct by smaller. The cube is larger at this special score of 4 away 3 away. My gammon value is .97 or extremely high. Even though the gammon rate is low, the elevated gammon value tilts towards a slightly faster cube at this score.

*****************

Last position.  I lead 3 away Crawford and have 54 to play.

is Teknikadam score: 4 pip: 102

7 point match Crawford

pip: 142 score: 6 is Chutzpah

XGID=-aa-BBC-C---AB---b-d-bBbc-:0:0:1:54:6:4:1:7:10

to play 54

1.	XG Roller++	13/4	eq: +0.401
	Player: Opponent: 70.38% (G:20.23% B:0.75%) 29.62% (G:7.74% B:0.15%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/4 6/1*	eq: +0.344 (-0.057)
	Player: Opponent: 67.75% (G:19.96% B:0.58%) 32.25% (G:12.20% B:0.24%)
3.	XG Roller++	12/7 6/2*	eq: +0.337 (-0.064)
	Player: Opponent: 67.48% (G:19.66% B:0.80%) 32.52% (G:15.77% B:0.24%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

This one isn't a whopper but shows another misunderstanding of when to play bold and when to play safe.

Basically I panicked that I didn't roll a perfecta and hit loose (12/7, 6/2) to try and stop him from escaping.  I was probably overemphasizing the fact that a gammon doesn't matter at this score - so I was taking extra chances to create a strong position quickly.

Still, this is too much risk.  The simple 13/4 wins more.  Let's consider Magriel again.  I have an anchor and am down in the race but have an anchor.  So this is mixed.  But my offense is pretty decent already.  I have a broken 4-prime and strong outfield control.  My opponent's forces are terribly split.  If he doesn't escape then he has to break his board down.  Note he already has one man killed on the ace point.  Also, even if he does pop out to the outfield he is hardly home free.  He has to run the gauntlet past my men in the outfield, which is unlikely.  Even if rolls a joker and hits me in the outfield, I reenter immediately more than half the time - so even his best rolls are not necessarily fatal.