WestWingFan

Below are errors from an online match versus WestWingFan.

First Game of 7 point match and I have 44 to play.

is westwingfan score: 0 pip: 144

7 point match

pip: 121 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=---CbBC-BBa-cB----bcb-b-A-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:7:10

to play 44

1.	XG Roller++	9/1(2)	eq: -0.265
	Player: Opponent: 41.83% (G:11.38% B:0.17%) 58.17% (G:10.37% B:0.38%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/5(2)	eq: -0.334 (-0.068)
	Player: Opponent: 39.30% (G:10.54% B:0.23%) 60.70% (G:8.31% B:0.27%)
3.	XG Roller++	13/9 13/1	eq: -0.352 (-0.086)
	Player: Opponent: 39.11% (G:10.25% B:0.21%) 60.89% (G:9.09% B:0.30%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 13/9, 13/1 trying to keep the 4-point block - the only asset I really have in this position.
Superior was 9/1(2).  I believe the reason is my stranded backman.  I don't expect to land safely on the midpoint.  This is evey unlikely.  Rather, I believe it is important to impede somewhat WestWing's containment efforts.  My play totally abandons the outfield after which WestWing can completely spread out his men in the containment effort.  By holding the midpoint I at least keep WestWing honest.

**************
Next game I trail 6 away 7 away and have 52 to play from the air.

is westwingfan score: 1 pip: 174

7 point match

pip: 168 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-b--a-E-C---cE-a-d-d----AA:0:0:1:52:0:1:0:7:10

to play 52

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/20 6/4*	eq: +0.037
	Player: Opponent: 50.51% (G:13.94% B:0.82%) 49.49% (G:13.72% B:0.67%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 13/8	eq: -0.037 (-0.074)
	Player: Opponent: 48.99% (G:12.71% B:0.60%) 51.01% (G:14.15% B:0.56%)
3.	4-ply	Bar/18	eq: -0.032 (-0.069)
	Player: Opponent: 49.49% (G:12.27% B:0.62%) 50.51% (G:14.77% B:0.55%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played the superwimpy and nonconstructive Bar/12, 13/8.  This lame move creates stacks, strands my backmen a bit and perhaps most importantly puts no pressure on the opponent.  WestWing now has the full roll to do something good his next turn.

Bar/20, 6/4* takes half the roll away from WestWing while attempting to do several good things.  I unstack the heavy 6-point, attack his blot on the 10-point and attempt to make an advanced anchor.  You are supposed to take your risks when the game is young and undeveloped.  I really should know better than this.

**************
This was an interesting position from later in the same game.  WestWingFan is on roll.  Cube action?

is westwingfan score: 1 pip: 131

7 point match

pip: 144 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-b--BbCBC---aC--A---bbbbbA:0:0:-1:00:0:1:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.71% (G:45.60% B:0.30%)	64.89% (G:45.68% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.29% (G:7.13% B:0.39%)	35.11% (G:7.04% B:0.40%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.743	+1.547
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.775 (-0.225)
Double/Take:	+1.168 (+0.168)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

WestWing missed a strong double here.  I certainly don't want the cube here, and doubling gives me a chance to make a mistake by taking.

I have a rule of thumb: Always pass on the bar against a 5-point board!!  There are exceptions of course, but a 5-point board is just so strong that you better have super-awesome compensation elsewhere on the board to justify a take.

Here I actually have good compensation in terms of 4 men back behind my good offensive structure.  Also, the 6-hole is open - the most favorable opening.  But the key is that loose blot.  About 1/3 of the time I am rolling with two in the air, and another third of the time he misses but I dance again and my blot is still vulnerable - perhaps to a double shot.  I win a decent percent of the time but the gammons are too high.

*************

Here is an easy one.  I trail 7 away 4 away, have already doubled and have 55 to play.

is westwingfan score: 4 pip: 132

7 point match

pip: 131 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=---BBcB-D-a-bC---B-bab-bb-:1:-1:1:55:0:4:0:7:10

to play 55

1.	XG Roller+	13/8(2) 13/3	eq: +0.231
	Player: Opponent: 60.94% (G:7.16% B:0.17%) 39.06% (G:5.82% B:0.09%)
2.	XG Roller+	13/3 8/3(2)	eq: +0.095 (-0.136)
	Player: Opponent: 53.97% (G:9.50% B:0.29%) 46.03% (G:11.63% B:0.21%)
3.	3-ply	13/3 6/1(2)	eq: +0.085 (-0.146)
	Player: Opponent: 54.33% (G:7.76% B:0.17%) 45.67% (G:10.32% B:0.09%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

This mistake is so embarassing I almost didn't post it.  Better to bury it and move on!!  I am sure no one but I would play the obviously stupid 13/3, 8/3(2).  The worst distribution ever!!  Plus it still leaves me 2 points to clear.

55 isn't the double I wanted but I need to recognize the positive attributes.  The superior and totally obvious play 13/8(2), 13/3 clears one of my problem points and gives me some stall time while I wait for thenext double.  Additionally, WestWingFan's position is a bit stripped and he may leave a shot or two while I hold the back anchor.

*************

Later in the same gain I got the chance to completely blow doublenicks again. 

is westwingfan score: 4 pip: 111

7 point match

pip: 106 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=--BCBcC-B---aB-----b-e-bbA:1:-1:1:55:0:4:0:7:10

to play 55

1.	XG Roller+	Bar/20 13/8 13/3	eq: +0.513
	Player: Opponent: 72.01% (G:10.04% B:0.16%) 27.99% (G:1.23% B:0.02%)
2.	XG Roller+	Bar/15 13/8(2)	eq: +0.381 (-0.132)
	Player: Opponent: 68.29% (G:5.46% B:0.15%) 31.71% (G:1.16% B:0.01%)
3.	4-ply	Bar/20 13/8(2) 6/1	eq: +0.449 (-0.064)
	Player: Opponent: 69.25% (G:10.07% B:0.15%) 30.75% (G:2.29% B:0.04%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

This was case of playing too quickly.  I moved Bar/15, 13/8(2) leaving a direct shot when it wasn't necessary.  Instead I could have played Bar/20, 13/8, 13/3.  This takes advantage of the fact that WestWingFan's builders are too far advanced to cause me any trouble.

**************
In the next position the score is 3 away 3 away and I have 33 to play.

is westwingfan score: 4 pip: 144

7 point match

pip: 147 score: 4 is Chutzpah

XGID=-aaB-BC-B-A-bC--ad-bbb--B-:0:0:1:33:4:4:0:7:10

to play 33

1.	XG Roller+	8/2*(2)	eq: +0.210
	Player: Opponent: 51.63% (G:25.81% B:1.42%) 48.37% (G:14.96% B:0.91%)
2.	XG Roller+	13/7(2)	eq: -0.167 (-0.376)
	Player: Opponent: 45.93% (G:17.29% B:1.13%) 54.07% (G:18.06% B:1.34%)
3.	1-ply	13/7 10/7 6/3	eq: -0.212 (-0.422)
	Player: Opponent: 45.12% (G:15.34% B:0.83%) 54.88% (G:18.06% B:1.07%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Sometimes it really hurts to look at my blunders.  The right play seems so obvious now I wonder what I was thinking?  8/2*(2) puts a man in the air while making a 4 point board.  Pretty good for one roll, right?

Instead I made the boneheaded play 13/7(2).  Priming is simply the wrong idea here as I am ahead in the race.  But more importantly I leave a direct shot for free and give my opponent the freedom of his whole roll to do something good.  If he doesn't hit me he might make his bar point or anchor on his side of the board.  Other than big doubles it is hard to think of a bad roll.  On the other hand, I can think of at least 16 bad numbers if I put him on the bar against my 4-point board.

This match is one of despair and hope.  Despair that I want to make such terrible plays, much less actually make them!  Hope that despite these frequent and ridiculous errors, my PR was actually a respectable 4.1 for this match.  If I can somehow reduce my trips to burger king, there is hope for my game yet.