SteamSax

What follows are blunders from a match against SteamSax.

I trail 7 away 5 away and have just been doubled.  Take or Drop?

is STEAMSAX score: 2 pip: 140

7 point match

pip: 159 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a-aB-C-C--CcB---cabb---bB:0:0:-1:00:0:2:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.26% (G:42.00% B:0.53%)	64.18% (G:41.98% B:0.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.74% (G:8.79% B:0.48%)	35.82% (G:8.85% B:0.49%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.596	+1.245
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.689 (-0.061)
Double/Take:	+0.751
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.249)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

I totally misjudged this position and dropped.

2 on the bar against a 3 point board, plus 10 men in the zone usually spells D-R-O-P for me.

And my judgment is correct as far as it goes.  XG++ gives this as a small pass for both money and at the 7 away 7 away score. 

I'm not sure I really understand it, but apparently the recube leverage to 4 is worth a lot here.  I suppose many of the games I win will often be on a 4 cube, which is good.

Also important to note is that I have both the 11 point and the 4 point made, so I have a good offense.  Also I have three flexible spares, which is unusual for a blitz. 

Also worth noting is that Steve has the ace point and his builder distro is not ideal.  While not huge, it helps my equity here.

Lesson?  Well my mental reference (2 on the bar against 3 point board with 10 in zone equals DANGER) is actually pretty good.  But this is not the end of the story.  I need to be on my toes and refine my initial judgments to consider the score as well as the location of all the checkers on the board.  In this particular case my offense was unusually good and I need to note his ace point is bad.

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In the next position I am on roll trailing 7 away 4 away.  Cube action?

is STEAMSAX score: 3 pip: 155

7 point match

pip: 160 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=--b-BBBB---AcCa--cAea---B-:0:0:1:00:0:3:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.18% (G:23.44% B:1.41%)	70.22% (G:23.78% B:1.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.82% (G:6.89% B:0.32%)	29.78% (G:6.92% B:0.33%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.583	+1.246
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.902 (-0.098)
Double/Take:	+1.166 (+0.166)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

This is an obvious double and a big pass.  Unfortunately I didn't double here.  Not sure what I was thinking as I have better board and prime plus 2 blots to shoot at.  Steve has an anchor and a close race.  Not much to hang your hat on.

These first two positions remind me of my chess days, which were often plagued by fear and lack of confidence.  I overestimate my opponent's attacks while underestimating the strength of my own attacks.  How frustrating.

****************

Here I trail 5 away 2 away and have 52 to play.

is STEAMSAX score: 5 pip: 83

7 point match

pip: 84 score: 2 is Chutzpah

XGID=-ADCB-C-------b--bbcBaabb-:0:0:1:52:2:5:0:7:10

to play 52

1.	XG Roller+	20/13	eq: -0.337
	Player: Opponent: 38.88% (G:2.15% B:0.02%) 61.12% (G:2.91% B:0.06%)
2.	XG Roller+	6/1 3/1	eq: -0.507 (-0.170)
	Player: Opponent: 34.36% (G:0.96% B:0.01%) 65.64% (G:2.95% B:0.05%)
3.	4-ply	20/15 3/1	eq: -0.366 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 38.11% (G:6.54% B:0.17%) 61.89% (G:7.54% B:0.15%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the howler 6/1, 3/1.  Looking at this match a week later, the right play seesm obivous.  Run Forrest Run!!  Why the heck am I staying put?  The race is close, he has two inner board blots, and I have a 4 point board. 

***************

Next position I trail 3 away 2 away and have a 32 to play.

is STEAMSAX score: 5 pip: 131

7 point match

pip: 150 score: 4 is Chutzpah

XGID=---BBBBb----cD---bbdB-A-b-:0:0:1:32:4:5:0:7:10

to play 32

1.	XG Roller+	13/8	eq: +0.089
	Player: Opponent: 47.94% (G:13.83% B:0.38%) 52.06% (G:10.92% B:0.21%)
2.	XG Roller+	22/20 13/10	eq: -0.104 (-0.193)
	Player: Opponent: 44.03% (G:9.32% B:0.24%) 55.97% (G:7.22% B:0.10%)
3.	4-ply	13/11 13/10	eq: +0.047 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 47.12% (G:12.71% B:0.32%) 52.88% (G:12.02% B:0.22%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played 22/20, 13/10.  This is big error in concept.  I am behind in the race and need the contact.  13/8 is much better.  I have a strong 4 point board and Steve is a bit stripped here.  My guy on the 3 point is annoying Steve and I certainly shouldn't lift it out of the way so he play his awkward rolls behind me.

*************
Last position. Same game.  I trail 3 away 2 away and have 33 to play.

is STEAMSAX score: 5 pip: 95

7 point match

pip: 124 score: 4 is Chutzpah

XGID=---BCCB-----bC-b--ccB-bab-:0:0:1:33:4:5:0:7:10

to play 33

1.	XG Roller+	13/7 5/2 4/1	eq: -0.650
	Player: Opponent: 31.02% (G:2.81% B:0.04%) 68.98% (G:3.19% B:0.07%)
2.	XG Roller+	20/17(2) 13/7	eq: -0.943 (-0.293)
	Player: Opponent: 26.13% (G:1.09% B:0.02%) 73.87% (G:1.96% B:0.02%)
3.	4-ply	13/4 5/2	eq: -0.633 (+0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 30.36% (G:2.44% B:0.03%) 69.64% (G:2.28% B:0.02%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the same error in concept, advancing the anchor with 20/17(2), 13/7. 
Down in the race, make pace!  Or stay back when behind.  Painful to admit, but I am still making elementary errors.