***************
I trail 8 away 7 away and have 41 to play.
is CJC score: 2 pip: 111  
9 point match  
pip: 135 score: 1 is Bill  
XGID=aaCDABbDcbAbbb:0:0:1:41:1:2:0:9:10  
to play 41 
1.  XG Roller++  8/4* 5/4  eq: 0.093  
 
2.  XG Roller++  21/17 7/6  eq: 0.757 (0.664)  
 
3.  2ply  8/7 8/4*  eq: 0.430 (0.337)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
I made the monster blunder 21/17, 8/7. Once again I was paralyzed by fear and wanted to keep the blot count down.
The best play was 8/4*, 5/4. Clearly this has the most upside. Blots be damned, this plays to win rather than playing not to lose. Over and over again lately I am seeing this theme in my games. Note how the wins get jacked up 12% by making the 4 point on her head. On the other hand, the gammons are pretty bad either way. The big play gets gammoned 34% while the wimpy play still gets gammoned 27% anyway.
When in doubt make the DMP play I suppose.
**************
I lead 6 away 7 away and have 42 to play.
is CJC score: 2 pip: 138  
9 point match  
pip: 154 score: 3 is Bill  
XGID=aBBCCbBbbbfBA:0:0:1:42:3:2:0:9:10  
to play 42 
1.  XG Roller++  24/20 22/20  eq: +0.123  
 
2.  XG Roller++  24/18  eq: 0.000 (0.124)  
 
3.  3ply  22/18 8/6  eq: 0.026 (0.149)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
I moved 24/18. The idea has some merit  trying to force contact when she is outboarded. But this is the wrong concept.
Advancing the anchor 24/20, 22/20 is the right idea. I establish the best of the "anchor and gaurd" setups. I am down in the race so the man on 24 point must stay. Also by inching up the 5 point my anchor is not impeded (or blocked six away) which is a nice tip I learned from Julius High recently. Finally by making the 5 anchor I devalue the six stacked men on CJC's six point. These checkers can not now be put to use to make points in front of my anchor.
**************
Score is 6 away 6 away and I am on roll. Cube action?
is CJC score: 3 pip: 125  
9 point match  
pip: 126 score: 3 is Bill  
XGID=aaaEBCBbBAbcbc:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:9:10  
on roll, cube action? 
Analyzed in Rollout  No double  Double/Take 
Player Winning Chances:  71.35% (G:12.24% B:0.56%)  71.43% (G:12.09% B:0.62%) 
Opponent Winning Chances:  28.65% (G:4.06% B:0.00%)  28.57% (G:4.12% B:0.00%) 
Cubeless Equities  +0.527  +1.130 
Cubeful Equities  
No double:  +0.798 (0.115)  ±0.019 (+0.779..+0.817) 
Double/Take:  +0.913  ±0.026 (+0.888..+0.939) 
Double/Pass:  +1.000 (+0.087)  
Best Cube action: Double / Take  
Rollout details  
385 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller  
I rolled. It's been so long I can't remember my thought process. Probably I noticed the race was close, I am outboarded, have a blot to cleanup, and I have only a onepoint board....let's take a roll.
True enough. But let's look at the position another way. Carol's board is overrun with an open 5point. Should an accident happen, Carol won't have anything until the 5 point is filled in.
I am up in the race (not much but up) and have an outside prime. So I may just win a simple race. I have significant blitz and gammon potential here. She has three vulnerable blots which could get scooped up if things go well. From this perspective, the double is clear and the take a tough one.
****************
On the other hand, if you double then you have to know how to play the rolls. How to handle this 21?
is CJC score: 3 pip: 125  
9 point match  
pip: 126 score: 3 is Bill  
XGID=aaaEBCBbBAbcbc:0:0:1:21:3:3:0:9:10  
to play 21 
1.  XG Roller++  6/5* 5/3*  eq: +0.544  
 
2.  XG Roller++  14/13 8/6  eq: +0.423 (0.122)  
 
3.  3ply  6/4* 4/3*  eq: +0.447 (0.097)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
I played the hyperwimpy 14/13, 8/6. Idea was to ease up on a cube. The problem is I am giving Carol the whole roll to do something good. Little numbers anchor up while big numbers run.
The doublehit 6/5*/3* gives Carol less good rolls. It slows her down in the race and gives here less anchoring rolls. Also the hits aren't too devastating either. As noted above, she has the open 5point and will have three men behind a 4prime even if she hits.
***************
I trail 6 away 2 away and have 33 to play.
is CJC score: 7 pip: 121  
9 point match  
pip: 67 score: 3 is Bill  
XGID=aCCBBCAabAbcbbb:1:1:1:33:3:7:0:9:10  
to play 33 
1.  XG Roller++  16/4  eq: +1.226  
 
2.  XG Roller++  16/13 10/1  eq: +1.045 (0.180)  
 
3.  XG Roller+  16/7 10/7  eq: +1.199 (0.026)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
I tried to force the gammon, moving 16/13, 10/1. This trades three extra jokers (51, 52 or 3 more hits than the safe play) for the chance to pick up a second blot.
Turns out the relatively safe 16/4 was best. This gives only 55 as a joker. As you can see by looking at the numbers I win the same amount of gammons either way so less shots is the most important thing. CJC has 8 extra outside crossovers besides the man on the bar. Hard to estimate the gammons over the board, but suffice to say it's a lot.
No comments:
Post a Comment