Fleet Underwood v Felix

What follows are selected errors from match against Felix.

I lead 7 away 9 away and have 42 to play. Hit outside or inside?

is Felix Yen score: 0 pip: 111

9 point match

pip: 159 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=---Ba-CACa--aC--c--cBbb-bA:0:0:1:42:2:0:0:9:10

to play 42

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 13/9*	eq: -0.547
	Player: Opponent: 42.12% (G:10.71% B:0.58%) 57.88% (G:30.63% B:0.93%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 8/4*	eq: -0.655 (-0.108)
	Player: Opponent: 40.47% (G:9.68% B:0.46%) 59.53% (G:31.28% B:0.90%)
3.	2-ply	Bar/23 7/3	eq: -0.856 (-0.309)
	Player: Opponent: 32.31% (G:5.59% B:0.21%) 67.69% (G:20.42% B:0.32%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I hit outside with Bar/23, 13/9*.

Compared to Bar/23, 8/4* the blot count is the same.

Perhaps I counted shots wrong.

I think ....

Shots on 8/4* are 14 fours plus 52 and 16 or 18 total.

Shots on 13/9* are ....
(1/2/4/5 come ins and 5's hit the 9 point or 7)
plus (1/2/4/5 come in and 3's hit the bar point or 8) or 15 so far
plus 16 or 17 total.

So less shots argues for the outside hit.   Also the upside is bigger since I have I am probably better off blocking rather than attacking.

**********************

I lead 7 away 8 away and have 54 to play. Attack or Prime?

is Felix Yen score: 1 pip: 115

9 point match

pip: 132 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=-a---CCBB-B--Baa-cbc-bbA--:0:0:1:54:2:1:0:9:10

to play 54

1.	XG Roller++	6/1* 5/1	eq: -0.234
	Player: Opponent: 45.51% (G:12.58% B:0.32%) 54.49% (G:15.81% B:0.66%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/9 13/8	eq: -0.335 (-0.101)
	Player: Opponent: 44.65% (G:8.88% B:0.48%) 55.35% (G:19.50% B:0.45%)
3.	2-ply	13/8 5/1*	eq: -0.461 (-0.228)
	Player: Opponent: 41.72% (G:9.61% B:0.43%) 58.28% (G:22.18% B:0.90%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I brought two down 13/9, 13/8.  This is the right positional idea but the tactics of this position make pointing on the ace 6/1*, 5/1 better.

The reason are the outside blots on the 10 and 11 point.  I might be able to touch these blots in some variations (or put them in a mixwith a timely double).  Clean up the blot and the priming play is once again better.  Gotta look at the whole board.

**************

Score is 7 Away 7 away and I have 62 to move.  How best to make use of this hitting roll?

is Felix Yen score: 2 pip: 149

9 point match

pip: 169 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=-a----DaCA-BcB-aAc-db---B-:0:0:1:62:2:2:0:9:10

to play 62

1.	XG Roller++	13/7* 9/7	eq: -0.342
	Player: Opponent: 43.25% (G:11.35% B:0.58%) 56.75% (G:20.07% B:1.56%)
2.	XG Roller++	16/10 9/7*	eq: -0.471 (-0.129)
	Player: Opponent: 40.79% (G:10.27% B:0.48%) 59.21% (G:22.17% B:2.01%)
3.	3-ply	24/16	eq: -0.420 (-0.078)
	Player: Opponent: 41.37% (G:8.07% B:0.31%) 58.63% (G:20.02% B:0.78%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 16/10, 9/7*  I was probably worried about the lack of connectivity between the men on the 24 point and the rest of my army.  Therefore I didn't want to break the midpoint.

Better was 13/7*, 9/7.  I think the reason is simple enough.  This hits and makes a point while my pay hits only.  It's not the best block but I have the starting of a 4 point block - my best chance of winning here.

************

Later in the same game.  Things have gone well for me.  Cube action?

is Felix Yen score: 2 pip: 155

9 point match

pip: 144 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=-c--a-DBC-BA-B----dcc---aA:0:0:1:00:2:2:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72.89% (G:20.36% B:1.47%)	72.88% (G:21.90% B:1.80%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.11% (G:6.31% B:0.18%)	27.12% (G:6.53% B:0.22%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.616	+1.294
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.897 (-0.103)
Double/Take:	+1.088 (+0.088)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I must have been spooked by sending a "pointless" double from the air.  But this is not a normal position.

I am up in the race, shooting at a blot.  But more importantly, Felix's position is very weak.  His position is totally disconnected and I am on the verge of forming a strong prime.

So I rolled.

************

And I rolled a joker 33 - and blew it.  Can you do better?

is Felix Yen score: 2 pip: 155

9 point match

pip: 144 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=-c--a-DBC-BA-B----dcc---aA:0:0:1:33:2:2:0:9:10

to play 33

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 11/5 8/5	eq: +1.085
	Player: Opponent: 80.98% (G:25.71% B:1.95%) 19.02% (G:3.39% B:0.09%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 13/10 7/4*(2)	eq: +0.939 (-0.147)
	Player: Opponent: 71.92% (G:27.02% B:2.94%) 28.08% (G:6.95% B:0.24%)
3.	3-ply	Bar/22 11/8 6/3(2)	eq: +0.969 (-0.116)
	Player: Opponent: 74.50% (G:22.04% B:1.68%) 25.50% (G:5.62% B:0.12%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I came in and shifted Bar/22, 13/10, 7/4*(2)  This was a conceptual error on my part.

Seeing this position again six months later I can now see that Bar/22, 11/5, 8/5 forms a nasty broken five prime.  This is the way to try and win this game.

************

I lead 6 away 7 away and have 21 to move versus this well-timed backgame.  Hit or don't hit?

is Felix Yen score: 2 pip: 156

9 point match

pip: 88 score: 3 is Bill

XGID=--bbCDDaD---------abcbb---:1:-1:1:21:3:2:0:9:10

to play 21

1.	XG Roller++	8/5	eq: +0.447
	Player: Opponent: 68.64% (G:22.71% B:0.91%) 31.36% (G:1.82% B:0.06%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/6 5/4	eq: +0.442 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 68.35% (G:23.14% B:0.93%) 31.65% (G:1.94% B:0.07%)
3.	XG Roller++	8/7* 7/5	eq: +0.324 (-0.123)
	Player: Opponent: 62.52% (G:28.21% B:1.61%) 37.48% (G:2.69% B:0.08%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I am confused at this one.  At the time I thought the best way to try and bust the timing was to hit and hope the hit man gets stuck and force Felix to crunch his forward position.  So I hit with 8/7*/5

Apparently this strategy is too speculative to work.

Better was the no hit 8/5.  Granted for the moment Felix has plenty of spare pips to play ... yet this is my best chance to crack the timing.  Felix is down to four checkers on the backgame points and only two spare checkers on the outside.  Once these checkers run out Felix must break one of the forward anchors else crack down his forward position.

From my point of view, I have sixes blocked for the moment and fives play safely to the ace point.  So hope I roll big sixes which slow me down while hoping Felix rolls big sixes also, forcing him to crunch would have been my best way to go.

**************

Later in the same game and I have a technical 32 to play.

is Felix Yen score: 2 pip: 129

9 point match

pip: 64 score: 3 is Bill

XGID=-BbBCDD-aa--------abcbba--:1:-1:1:32:3:2:0:9:10

to play 32

1.	XG Roller++	6/4 6/3	eq: +0.995
	Player: Opponent: 89.29% (G:23.13% B:0.80%) 10.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller++	6/3 5/3	eq: +0.954 (-0.040)
	Player: Opponent: 87.57% (G:23.05% B:0.70%) 12.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.	XG Roller+	5/Off	eq: +0.949 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 86.15% (G:26.15% B:0.93%) 13.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

This isn't a big error but perhaps a fundamental conceptual error.

I moved 6/3, 5/3.  This plays totally safe next turn but is wrong.  Weird.  What's going on?

Apparently 6/4, 6/3 is the way to go.  Even though this risks a bad 64 next turn, this skinnies down to two men on the furthestmost point, preparing to clear next turn.  From a gameplan point of view, I want to simply clear and this play prepared to do so.  The single shot 64 roll is not enough reason to distract from this goal.

**************

I lead 4 away 7 away and have 11 to play.

is Felix Yen score: 2 pip: 118

9 point match

pip: 119 score: 5 is Bill

XGID=---BbBCC--D-a----b-ccbb-A-:0:0:1:11:5:2:0:9:10

to play 11

1.	XG Roller++	10/8(2)	eq: -0.134
	Player: Opponent: 47.58% (G:7.88% B:0.32%) 52.42% (G:11.33% B:0.17%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/23 10/9(2) 6/5	eq: -0.258 (-0.124)
	Player: Opponent: 45.37% (G:7.65% B:0.28%) 54.63% (G:14.64% B:0.23%)
3.	3-ply	10/9(2) 7/5	eq: -0.205 (-0.071)
	Player: Opponent: 46.86% (G:6.89% B:0.22%) 53.14% (G:11.86% B:0.13%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 24/23, 10/9(2) 6/5.  I figured this made the best block.

Best was 10/8(2).  I am not totally sure what is going on but here is a guess.

Probably it's just a matter of keeping my lone man out of harm's way as much as possible.  By scooting up I give him 6's 4's and 3's to attack my lone man whereas by staying back he only has 4's and 5's to attack.

Also by staying back I force him to attack on the point Felix wants less.  The two point is part of the prime while the ace point is only part of the close out.

**************

Later in the same game.  I still lead 4 away 7 away and am being doubled.  Take or Drop?

is Bill score: 5 pip: 112

9 point match

pip: 104 score: 2 is Felix Yen

XGID=---CaCBBaBB-a-----acbbbbA-:0:0:-1:00:5:2:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75.56% (G:21.11% B:0.56%)	75.22% (G:22.93% B:0.59%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.44% (G:6.14% B:0.55%)	24.78% (G:6.86% B:0.54%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.662	+1.413
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.860 (-0.140)
Double/Take:	+1.350 (+0.350)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I took.  Position is a huge drop.

As you can see from the numbers I win a decent amount of the time (25%) but get gammoned too much.  I think the lesson is the excess outside crossovers from my outside prime.  As well as the possibility that I may cough up extra blots if he simply makes the six-prime and I have to take chances to win on my side of the board.

************

Score is 3 away 3 away and I have 41 to play. Hit or make a point?

is Felix Yen score: 6 pip: 139

9 point match

pip: 109 score: 6 is Bill

XGID=a-aB-CBCB---bC--ac-c-bb---:1:-1:1:41:6:6:0:9:10

to play 41

1.	XG Roller++	8/4 5/4	eq: +0.916
	Player: Opponent: 82.27% (G:37.63% B:1.04%) 17.73% (G:2.38% B:0.10%)
2.	XG Roller++	7/2*	eq: +0.824 (-0.092)
	Player: Opponent: 77.36% (G:41.77% B:1.11%) 22.64% (G:4.66% B:0.19%)
3.	3-ply	13/9 7/6	eq: +0.827 (-0.089)
	Player: Opponent: 81.95% (G:29.56% B:0.73%) 18.05% (G:2.31% B:0.07%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Making the solid 5 prime 8/4, 5/4 seems pretty clear yet I didn't do it.

I panicked and went for the closeout with 7/2*

Hitting does win a few more gammons but loses a ton more.  At this score gammon value is like money so I shouldn't go crazy trying to gammon.

Making a 5 1/2 point prime while he is on the bar is pretty darn strong.  This challenges him to roll a two immediately else risk getting gammoned anyway.

Probably I was fixated on not letting him anchor.  But even if Felix does anchor his game still sucks.  Oh well.