Dmitriy set 1

Dmitriy and I faced off twice at the Fleet Underwood tournament. Below are select errors from the first encounter.


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Score is 9 away 9 away. 31P-31P-44. Your play?

is Dmitriy score: 0 pip: 163

9 point match

pip: 163 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-b---BD-B---eE---b-db---B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:9:10

to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

I moved 13/9(2)-13/5.

Much better is 13/9(2), 9/4(2).

This fundamental mistake made a big impression on me.

While shifting from the 8 point to the 4 point doesn't make a new point, generally speaking inner points are better than outer points.  Also this establishes the rack formation (6/5/4) which is very strong by itself.  Also note the 9/6/5/4 is still a broken four prime as well.

Perhaps a small consideration is that I am frontloading or semi-killing a third builder by pushing 13/5.


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I trail 9 away 8 away and have this 31 to play. Hit or not?

is Dmitriy score: 1 pip: 135

9 point match

pip: 161 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-a--ABC-Ca--cC---abcbBb-A-:0:0:1:31:0:1:0:9:10

to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Everybody knows I'm an ass man. I tapped with 13/9* and was surprised to learn this was a big mistake.

The computer likes simply covering with 8/4 by a wide margin.

Why? To be honest, I don't know. While I am outboarded, I am way down in the race and have an anchor - seems to argue for hitting. Perhaps this just goes to show the power of establishing the rack formation. The 6-5-4 board will make any subsequent hit very strong and the game is still young. Moreover Dmitriy has some garbage to clean up this roll so I have a decent chance of getting a direct shot net turn. Again, if I hit a next time I am in much better containment shape than if I hit a shot now.

Finally, Dmitriy still has to escape that back man before he can even think of doubling. So, a rare case where steady as she goes beats the rash hit.

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Later in the same game and Dmitriy doubles. Take or Drop?

is Dmitriy score: 1 pip: 121

9 point match

pip: 170 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-a--CBBAB---b----bccbBbAB-:0:0:-1:00:0:1:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.84% (G:30.86% B:3.77%)	64.24% (G:31.29% B:3.97%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.16% (G:5.15% B:0.21%)	35.76% (G:5.11% B:0.27%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.620	+1.279
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.853 (-0.053)	±0.014 (+0.839..+0.866)
Double/Take:	+0.906	±0.025 (+0.881..+0.930)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.094)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 35 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

This is a tough one in my opinion.

I dropped. It looks scary. My timing is iffy and this game has G-ball tattooed all over it.

Yet all my checkers are in play and I win a significant amount of the time - take per the computer.  I retain chances to win going forward as well as to play from the double anchor.  Something to remember, not that I will.

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I trail 9 away 7 away and have 42 to play.  Hit loose or extend the prime?

is Dmitriy score: 2 pip: 207

9 point match

pip: 142 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=abbaBBBBB---bB-A-Abc-b--A-:1:-1:1:42:0:2:0:9:10

to play 42

1.	Rollout1	24/22 13/9	eq: +0.988
	Player: Opponent: 76.09% (G:44.33% B:6.23%) 23.91% (G:1.96% B:0.23%) Conf.: ± 0.021 (+0.966...+1.009) - [58.4%] Duration: 3 minutes 53 seconds
2.	Rollout1	17/15 13/9	eq: +0.984 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 75.35% (G:45.08% B:6.71%) 24.65% (G:1.93% B:0.19%) Conf.: ± 0.022 (+0.963...+1.006) - [41.6%] Duration: 3 minutes 46 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/11 7/3*	eq: +0.846 (-0.142)
	Player: Opponent: 72.58% (G:41.44% B:6.99%) 27.42% (G:5.34% B:0.96%) Conf.: ± 0.024 (+0.822...+0.870) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 10 seconds
1 620 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 619 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I hit loose  with 13/11, 7/3*.  Idea was to prevent Dmitriy from making that third anchor at all costs.

However this play does leave seven blots, perhaps a bit much.  The possibility of an accident is real.

On the other hand, he doesn't always make that third anchor.  And even if he does I will probably create at least a 5-prime by making the computer play 13/9 and any other 2.  Strategically Dmitriy will have six checkers behind a 5-prime with iffy timing.  This will be rough for him whether he makes the 3rd anchor or not (and he may not).

So the risk/reward profile on the loose hit just isn't there.

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I lead 5 away 7 away and am being doubled.  Take or Drop?

is Dmitriy score: 2 pip: 119

9 point match

pip: 154 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=--BA-AB-bA-B-C-c-cBbc--bA-:0:0:-1:00:4:2:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.23% (G:34.25% B:1.26%)	69.73% (G:35.73% B:1.42%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.77% (G:5.64% B:0.21%)	30.27% (G:6.28% B:0.36%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.705	+1.499
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+1.009	±0.030 (+0.979..+1.039)
Double/Take:	+1.341 (+0.332)	±0.057 (+1.284..+1.398)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (-0.009)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 2.7%
Rollout details
117 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		72.8%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 52.2 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I scooped like it was nothing.  Boy did I misjudge this one! While I am way down in the race, I thought I had decent contact and a chance to build a board in time for a shot.

As the computer shows, this is already 70/30 with a blitzy amount of gammons to boot.  Huge drop.

However, one small change makes this a bordline take/drop.  Move my blot from the 3 point to cover the 5 point.  Shows once again how important it is to consider the entire board!  Tough game backgammon.

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I trail 5 away 3 away and have 21 to play.

is Dmitriy score: 6 pip: 151

9 point match

pip: 118 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=bB-BB-B-B-AA-Ac-bc-cBb----:1:-1:1:21:4:6:0:9:10

to play 21

1.	XG Roller++	20/18 8/7	eq: +1.249
	Player: Opponent: 75.54% (G:56.78% B:0.63%) 24.46% (G:6.30% B:0.78%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/11 8/7	eq: +1.144 (-0.105)
	Player: Opponent: 73.52% (G:52.69% B:0.53%) 26.48% (G:4.76% B:0.26%)
3.	XG Roller+	20/18 10/9	eq: +1.234 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 76.10% (G:54.61% B:0.63%) 23.90% (G:5.31% B:0.50%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

This a conceptual error on my part. Another learning opportunity. I am totally focused on the offensive side of the board, trying to maximize builders and score a juicy gammon. However, I need a more balanced approach. Dmitriy still retains a broken 4-block against my anchor. It is prudent to move the 2 out now, as I have enough firepower already and 21 doesn't do much to improve this anyway. A lesson on the last phase blitz/scramble.

recapping - my play 13/11, 8/7 gets the game plan wrong. I am all offense when I must be thinking about escaping too.

Better was 20/18, 8/7.


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Later in the same game. The closeout is so close. how to play this 53?

is Dmitriy score: 6 pip: 151

9 point match

pip: 90 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=bBABBBB-A--B--c-bc-cAb----:1:-1:1:53:4:6:0:9:10

to play 53

1.	XG Roller++	20/15 5/2	eq: +1.936
	Player: Opponent: 89.82% (G:79.88% B:0.60%) 10.18% (G:1.52% B:0.09%)
2.	XG Roller++	11/8 11/6	eq: +1.804 (-0.133)
	Player: Opponent: 87.25% (G:75.12% B:0.61%) 12.75% (G:1.75% B:0.08%)
3.	3-ply	20/15 11/8	eq: +1.862 (-0.074)
	Player: Opponent: 89.26% (G:75.78% B:0.86%) 10.74% (G:1.36% B:0.09%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Conceptually I made the same error though there is a tactical element to it.

I moved 11/8, 11/6. This moves builders in range for the cover and I am diversified to boot. 2's and 5's out while 6's and 4's cover.

Yet this is a whopper sized blunder. The tactical switch 20/15, 5/2 escapes my back man now while also giving two direct covers for the last point. Additionally, if Dimo does anchor eventually at least he will be flushed forward. There is much less last ditch contact from the 5 point than the 2 point. A nice technical manuever to keep in mind.

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I trail 5 away Crawford. 62 to play.

is Dmitriy score: 8 pip: 113

9 point match Crawford

pip: 88 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=-CBBaBBA--b-bB-----cAc-bb-:0:0:1:62:4:8:1:9:10

to play 62

1.	XG Roller++	20/14 7/5	eq: +0.187
	Player: Opponent: 58.52% (G:16.42% B:0.29%) 41.48% (G:5.95% B:0.14%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/11 13/7	eq: +0.070 (-0.117)
	Player: Opponent: 52.73% (G:15.51% B:0.28%) 47.27% (G:8.61% B:0.21%)
3.	3-ply	20/18 7/1	eq: +0.106 (-0.081)
	Player: Opponent: 54.74% (G:12.38% B:0.13%) 45.26% (G:8.24% B:0.20%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved timidly 13/11, 13/7.

Better was the brave 20/14, 7/5. Both "Up in the race, race" and "one blot theory" point to this play.

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I trail 3 away post crawford. 43 to play. Hit or cover?

is Dmitriy score: 8 pip: 69

9 point match

pip: 108 score: 6 is Bill

XGID=aB--CAC-A-C-a-A----A-bddc-:1:-1:1:43:6:8:0:9:10

to play 43

1.	XG Roller++	19/12*	eq: +0.881
	Player: Opponent: 71.83% (G:22.23% B:0.62%) 28.17% (G:11.15% B:0.24%)
2.	XG Roller++	10/6 8/5	eq: +0.799 (-0.082)
	Player: Opponent: 71.25% (G:18.72% B:0.50%) 28.75% (G:4.17% B:0.05%)
3.	2-ply	19/15 8/5	eq: +0.617 (-0.264)
	Player: Opponent: 67.71% (G:13.15% B:0.49%) 32.29% (G:3.38% B:0.03%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

This one should have been a cinch but I blew it with 10/6, 8/5.  I was thinking I needed the 5 point to win so let's make it now. Also this gives him many more dancing rolls and I may pick up the second man next time.  Wrong!


Two men back (19/12*) scores more gammons but it also wins more games too.

The hit puts enormous pressure on Dmitriy to roll an immediate five.  And even if he does roll a five the game isn't over.  I am favored to come back in and Dimo still has to traverse the whole board with two men before he can bearoff - not an easy task.