DT

Below are errors from a match against David Todd from the Cleveland tournament earlier this year.

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First game of 11 point match and I have 31 to play.

is David Todd score: 0 pip: 133

11 point match

pip: 134 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=--Bb-BE-B---cB----bbbbb-B-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:11:10

to play 31

1.	XG Roller++	24/23 8/5	eq: -0.861
	Player: Opponent: 19.31% (G:4.01% B:0.13%) 80.69% (G:32.97% B:1.82%)
2.	XG Roller++	6/2	eq: -0.941 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 13.69% (G:2.30% B:0.06%) 86.31% (G:26.26% B:1.55%)
3.	3-ply	24/23 13/10	eq: -0.917 (-0.056)
	Player: Opponent: 18.22% (G:3.52% B:0.15%) 81.78% (G:34.68% B:2.74%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I am totally in give up or gammon save mode here. 6/2 without even thinking about it.


The computer has brass balls and prefers 24/23, 8/5. This makes a move for an upgraded anchor while DT lacks the ammo to close me out and also duplicates the 5's.

Note the gammons lost (6%) are offset by the increased wins (6%). I have seen this theme before but tread carefully. To my mind, this is one of those exceptions that are hard to find. My guess is this maneuver is usually wrong and horribly so when it is wrong.

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I trail 11 away 7 away and have 61 to play.

is David Todd score: 4 pip: 144

11 point match

pip: 142 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-a-AC-D-B--abC-b-bbe----B-:0:0:1:61:0:4:0:11:10

to play 61

1.	XG Roller++	13/7 4/3	eq: -0.055
	Player: Opponent: 43.61% (G:16.05% B:0.40%) 56.39% (G:12.59% B:0.78%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/2 3/2	eq: -0.186 (-0.131)
	Player: Opponent: 40.51% (G:13.87% B:0.27%) 59.49% (G:13.05% B:0.80%)
3.	3-ply	8/2 4/3	eq: -0.141 (-0.086)
	Player: Opponent: 42.11% (G:14.59% B:0.45%) 57.89% (G:14.24% B:1.04%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the deuce point with 8/2, 3/2.

Better was the aggressive 13/7, 4/3. I think the best way to find this play is Neil Kaz's maxim "where do you want to fight?"

The 6/4/3 board is a much better combo than grandma's gapped teeth 6/4/2. This places pressure on DT to roll a six immediately. And even if he does, DT only has a one point board so there is plenty of play left in the position.

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Later in the same game and I have caught DT on the bar against a 5 point board. Cube action?

is David Todd score: 4 pip: 139

11 point match

pip: 94 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=aBCBB-D-----b--b-cbe----B-:0:0:1:00:0:4:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60.87% (G:24.88% B:0.06%)	60.26% (G:25.23% B:0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39.13% (G:5.65% B:0.19%)	39.74% (G:5.76% B:0.17%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.403	+0.849
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.582 (-0.097)
Double/Take:	+0.679
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.321)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I paused but rolled. I just couldn't believe I was really threatening anything with two men stuck on the ace point and zero connectivity around the board.

Yet this is a significant mistake not to double. I put the position in for money and it is a borderline No double. So this double appears to be mostly score based. Gammons are slight elevated and his recube potential is slightly crippled. Looks like a snore of a take though, especially for DT who never drops anything.

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I trail 11 away 7 away. 32 to play. Stiff or builder action?

is David Todd score: 4 pip: 149

11 point match

pip: 155 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=-b--B-D-C---eD-----bbbbAA-:0:0:1:32:1:4:0:11:10

to play 32

1.	XG Roller++	13/8	eq: -0.398
	Player: Opponent: 38.96% (G:10.63% B:0.49%) 61.04% (G:22.50% B:0.90%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/11 13/10	eq: -0.491 (-0.093)
	Player: Opponent: 37.14% (G:10.70% B:0.54%) 62.86% (G:26.02% B:1.83%)
3.	3-ply	13/10 6/4	eq: -0.446 (-0.048)
	Player: Opponent: 37.78% (G:10.52% B:0.55%) 62.22% (G:24.23% B:1.26%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I went for the builders with 13/11,13/10. My thinking was I should take my chances now while David is stiff himself. He has a very strong position, for sure, but stacked on the midpoint and stuck on the ace he can't really hurt me too much unless he hits a shot now. So I figure I should position myself best for counterplay before it is too late.

The computer thinks prudence is called for with 13/8. I find my arguments above pretty convincing so I am not really sure what is going on here. Perhaps I should just sit back and let him come to me. I am turning 9's and 10's into good rolls which would be kind of blah before? Maybe - not sure about that one.

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Later in same game. Another 32 to play.

is David Todd score: 4 pip: 146

11 point match

pip: 162 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=--aaB-D-C-A-eB-----bbbbBA-:0:0:1:32:1:4:0:11:10

to play 32

1.	XG Roller++	10/8 6/3*	eq: -0.711
	Player: Opponent: 32.50% (G:8.71% B:0.36%) 67.50% (G:28.76% B:2.32%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/11 13/10	eq: -0.804 (-0.093)
	Player: Opponent: 30.31% (G:7.84% B:0.33%) 69.69% (G:26.69% B:1.94%)
3.	3-ply	8/3*	eq: -0.757 (-0.045)
	Player: Opponent: 32.41% (G:8.99% B:0.36%) 67.59% (G:31.48% B:3.03%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

OK so this game makes me queasy after either play but you still need to get the most out of your bad positions too.

I went with the wimpy 13/10, 13/11. I think the problem with this play is I put absolutely no pressure on David whatsoever. He has complete freedom to play all his rolls and they all play well.

Since this is a lopsided score I will be taking deep so I should just buckle up and make the best play to try and win.
Hence the computer's suggestion 10/8, 6/3* This holds the midpoint, unstacks the six point and puts David on the bar. I would retain the best balance of offense and defense while staying in the game for the long-term with this play.

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Still later in the same game. A couple of jokers and I am on the verge of a turnaournd. How best ot move this 63?

is David Todd score: 4 pip: 150

11 point match

pip: 137 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=a-AbBCB-B-Bab-----AbcbbB--:1:1:1:63:1:4:0:11:10

to play 63

1.	XG Roller++	23/17 5/2	eq: +0.658
	Player: Opponent: 58.02% (G:22.91% B:1.07%) 41.98% (G:13.73% B:0.75%)
2.	XG Roller++	10/4 5/2	eq: +0.400 (-0.258)
	Player: Opponent: 49.63% (G:19.35% B:0.74%) 50.37% (G:14.56% B:0.70%)
3.	2-ply	8/5 8/2	eq: +0.349 (-0.309)
	Player: Opponent: 48.47% (G:18.96% B:0.83%) 51.53% (G:15.08% B:0.58%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I was terrified of getting hit here so played 10/4, 6/3. My thinking was why give extra shots when I have a strong cube next time on plenty of rolls?

Apparently the motto was "put em where you want em" when opponent is on bar versus 4 point board. 23/18, 6/3 giving 16, 36, and 33 as extras is the computer move.

Apparently the position after my play and dance isn't as strong as it looks. Is Redouble / Easy take. Perhaps this is influencing the play. Take a calculated risk now to get a better cube next time.

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I lead 4 away 7 away and am on roll. Cube action?

is David Todd score: 4 pip: 142

11 point match

pip: 127 score: 7 is Bill

XGID=-b-B-bC-CB-B-C---a-cbcb---:0:0:1:00:7:4:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.37% (G:9.25% B:0.35%)	66.55% (G:9.24% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.63% (G:7.12% B:0.12%)	33.45% (G:6.66% B:0.09%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.376	+0.932
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.605
Double/Take:	+0.437 (-0.168)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.395)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 23.0%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I went for it and doubled. I was rewarded with a drop but apparently this is a no double. Also no double for money.

Weird. i don't get it. It looks like he has no timing so my position is just very strong. OK so DT can't play a backgame but this isn't the only game plan. He has a death board waiting for me so I will ahve to tiptoe this game home. Considering my lame board and 10 outside men this certainly won't be easy. DT will probably be able to scoot his back man up and hold the 5 point. The race is not hopeless - he can probably win once in a while in the race. Most likely he holds the 5 point and gives me problems bearing in. Even if he has to abandong the 5 point he will have play from the ace point anchor. I still have plenty of gaps in my home board to fill in. And any hit will probably be a game winner now and well into the future.


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I lead 3 away 7 away and have 52 to play owning the cube.

is David Todd score: 4 pip: 137

11 point match

pip: 124 score: 8 is Bill

XGID=aaBB--DAC--Ab--b---cbbb-B-:1:1:1:52:8:4:0:11:10

to play 52

1.	XG Roller++	8/1*	eq: -0.391
	Player: Opponent: 39.56% (G:21.45% B:0.30%) 60.44% (G:23.91% B:2.76%)
2.	XG Roller++	11/9 7/2	eq: -0.612 (-0.221)
	Player: Opponent: 29.27% (G:10.96% B:0.37%) 70.73% (G:22.42% B:1.27%)
3.	XG Roller+	11/9 6/1*	eq: -0.423 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 39.53% (G:21.41% B:0.31%) 60.47% (G:24.17% B:2.64%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I was possesed by fear. 11/9, 7/2 with blot control (and gammon-phobia) on my mind.

8/1* was the way to go. "Two on the bar is better by far." And my game plan, as unlikely as it is, is to attack and try to escape later.

My wimpy play simply hopes to not get gammoned. This is another case of growing a pair and playing to win rather than playing not to lose.