One thing I don't understand is how Stick gets takepoint of 22.5% I show takepoint as 19%. Perhaps one of my knowledgeable readers can explain it to me.
Goal: Win 4 points
When to double
RACE: similar to money
BLITZ: double very early because gammon value is almost 1
When to take
RACE: low takepoint because redoubling to 4 is strong
BLITZ: drop gammonish cubes. border line decision in money game will be monster pass at 4 away 4 away
Kit Woolsey article
1. Take low-gammon games deeper than for money b/c of the powerful recube. Note the recube takepoint is 33%
2. Drop gammonish games b/c the 50% equity of 3away 4away isn’t that bad, and the gammon value is too high.
3. Never double a backgame!
Stick Gammon village article.
4 AWAY 4 AWAY
1. Dead cube takepoint is very high, ~ 29%.
a. Note ‘dead’ means no recube, like a last roll position
2. Live cube takepoint is 22.5% per Stick
a. [NOTE – I have 19% on my match equity chart. Why the difference?
b. Live cube doesn’t factor in gammons]
3. Gammon value is almost 1.0
4. Basic strategy is to double early, especially in gammonish positions; you would love to win 4 points to win the match.
5. Note this is similar to 2 away 4 away where the trailer doubles very early on gammon threat and leader drops quickly.
6. Rule of thumb for early doubling:
a. 60% Wins + 20% Gammons and < 10% Opponent gammons = Borderline No double / Take
b. 65% Wins + 25% Gammons and < 10% opponent gammons = Borderline double / Drop
7. Stick claims race takepoint for long race is similar to money (~22%) because of the enormous recube vig. Recall opponent’s 33% recube takepoint is very high.
Early Cube Examples
a. $: No Double / Take by .06
b. At 4a 4a: Double / Take (.65 ND .85 DT)
c. Takeaway – blot on 2 point is Double / Take
a. $: Borderline Double / take
b. 4a 4a: Borderline Drop
Takepoint on a recube is 33% - so recube vig is significant. Fast recube, fast pass!!
1. 8 roll position is redouble / borderline pass
2. 7 roll position is redouble / drop
3. Most standard holding games are drops on the recube
4. Most Prime vs Primes are drops on the recube (33% is a lot when cube ownership and gammons are worthless)
5. Recube that containment game early!! Example had only 4 point block and minus 40 pips but the threat to point on blot and /or just hit loose followed by miss is too volatile. Redouble / Take.