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April 24, 2012

4 Away 4 Away

Continiung to look at all scores in 5 point match. 

One thing I don't understand is how Stick gets takepoint of 22.5%  I show takepoint as 19%.  Perhaps one of my knowledgeable readers can explain it to me.


Mochy video

Goal: Win 4 points

When to double
RACE: similar to money
BLITZ: double very early because gammon value is almost 1

When to take
RACE: low takepoint because redoubling to 4 is strong
BLITZ: drop gammonish cubes.  border line decision in money game will be monster pass at 4 away 4 away

Kit Woolsey article

1.       Take low-gammon games deeper than for money b/c of the powerful recube.  Note the recube takepoint is 33%

2.       Drop gammonish games b/c the 50% equity of 3away 4away isn’t that bad, and the gammon value is too high.

3.       Never double a backgame!

Stick Gammon village article.


Initial Cubes

1.      Dead cube takepoint is very high, ~ 29%. 

a.      Note ‘dead’ means  no recube, like a last roll position

2.      Live cube takepoint is 22.5% per Stick

a.      [NOTE – I have 19% on my match equity chart.  Why the difference?

b.      Live cube doesn’t factor in gammons]

3.      Gammon value is almost 1.0

4.      Basic strategy is to double early, especially in gammonish positions;  you would love to win 4 points to win the match.

5.      Note this is similar to 2 away 4 away where the trailer doubles very early on gammon threat and leader drops quickly.

6.      Rule of thumb for early doubling:

a.       60% Wins + 20% Gammons and < 10% Opponent gammons = Borderline No double / Take

b.      65% Wins + 25% Gammons and < 10% opponent gammons = Borderline double / Drop

7.      Stick claims race takepoint for long race is similar to money (~22%) because of the enormous recube vig.  Recall opponent’s 33% recube takepoint is very high.

Early Cube Examples

1.      51S-55A-F-C? 

a.       $:  No Double / Take by .06

b.      At 4a 4a: Double / Take  (.65 ND .85 DT)

c.       Takeaway – blot on 2 point is Double / Take

2.      32S-55A-F-C?

a.       $: Borderline Double / take

b.      4a 4a: Borderline Drop


Takepoint on a recube is 33% - so recube vig is significant.  Fast recube, fast pass!!


1.      8 roll position is redouble / borderline pass

2.      7 roll position is redouble / drop

3.      Most standard holding games are drops on the recube

4.      Most Prime vs Primes are drops on the recube (33% is a lot when cube ownership and gammons are worthless)

5.      Recube that containment game early!!  Example had only 4 point block and minus 40 pips but the threat to point on blot and /or just hit loose followed by miss is too volatile.  Redouble / Take.

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