GammonsDad - 2nd Match

Below are selected positions from my second online match against GammonsDad.

Score is 5 away 5 away and I am on roll.  Cube action?

is GammonsDad score: 2 pip: 160

7 point match

pip: 151 score: 2 is Chutzpah

XGID=-abB-BC-B---aD--acbe----AA:0:0:1:00:2:2:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.41% (G:26.18% B:2.07%)	66.53% (G:26.45% B:2.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.59% (G:7.93% B:0.38%)	33.47% (G:7.83% B:0.37%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.516	+1.135
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.766 (-0.083)
Double/Take:	+0.849
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.151)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed a strong double here.  I have him outboarded ,am up in the race, and am shooting at a blot with most aces and nines.  In short, an advantage in all phases of the game plus some threats must be a cube.  Especially when you consider that even if things go bad it will be a long time before I get recubed.

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Same position.  How do you play 11?

is GammonsDad score: 2 pip: 160

7 point match

pip: 151 score: 2 is Chutzpah

XGID=-abB-BC-B---aD--acbe----AA:0:0:1:11:2:2:0:7:10

to play 11

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 13/12*	eq: +0.969
	Player: Opponent: 70.08% (G:31.83% B:3.06%) 29.92% (G:5.90% B:0.28%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 13/12*(2)	eq: +0.960 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 70.22% (G:31.82% B:2.85%) 29.78% (G:6.03% B:0.29%)
3.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 13/12* 12/11	eq: +0.949 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 69.49% (G:31.65% B:2.80%) 30.51% (G:6.31% B:0.31%)
4.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 13/12* 6/5	eq: +0.942 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 69.38% (G:31.25% B:2.75%) 30.62% (G:6.51% B:0.32%)
5.	XG Roller++	Bar/24 13/12*(2) 12/11	eq: +0.934 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 69.05% (G:32.27% B:2.96%) 30.95% (G:6.82% B:0.39%)
6.	XG Roller++	Bar/24 13/12*(2) 6/5	eq: +0.931 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 68.60% (G:30.97% B:2.78%) 31.40% (G:6.88% B:0.35%)
7.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 24/23 13/12*	eq: +0.921 (-0.048)
	Player: Opponent: 68.41% (G:30.35% B:2.56%) 31.59% (G:6.96% B:0.33%)
8.	XG Roller++	Bar/24 13/12*(3)	eq: +0.904 (-0.064)
	Player: Opponent: 67.91% (G:30.18% B:2.81%) 32.09% (G:7.14% B:0.36%)
9.	XG Roller++	Bar/24 13/12* 12/11 6/5	eq: +0.904 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 67.37% (G:30.56% B:2.72%) 32.63% (G:7.34% B:0.39%)
10.	XG Roller+	Bar/24 13/12* 8/7(2)	eq: +0.896 (-0.073)
	Player: Opponent: 68.45% (G:30.87% B:2.72%) 31.55% (G:6.89% B:0.34%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Basically anything but my play is OK.  I came in, hit, and shifted from the 8 point to the 7 point.  Bar/24, 13/12*, 8/7.

Sometimes it is nice when every play is better than the one you made since it is easy to figure out your mistake!  I was thinking that shifting to the bar point gave me a more compact prime but this was obviously faulty.

The 8 point is a grat point - six away from his anchor and keeping him hemmed in.  Moreover, I have total domination of the outfield and a good chance of making the bar naturally anyway.
*****

I trail 3 away 4 away and my opponent is on roll?  Cube action?

is GammonsDad score: 4 pip: 132

7 point match

pip: 168 score: 3 is Chutzpah

XGID=----B-C-C--AdCaaac-cAb--B-:0:0:-1:00:3:4:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	74.78% (G:22.98% B:1.75%)	74.31% (G:24.33% B:2.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	25.22% (G:3.39% B:0.12%)	25.69% (G:3.32% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.889	+1.844
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.975 (-0.025)
Double/Take:	+1.258 (+0.258)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I took a bad one here.  More than half the rolls make the 5 point on my head.  Even if he misses I am down ~40 pips with maybe an advanced anchor (if I roll it).  Drop it like it's hot!!

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OK so I took and I have rolled well.  How to play 54 from the air?

is GammonsDad score: 4 pip: 108

7 point match

pip: 173 score: 3 is Chutzpah

XGID=----B-C-C--AbC--acbcac--BA:1:1:1:54:3:4:0:7:10

to play 54

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/20* 20/16*	eq: +0.510
	Player: Opponent: 49.37% (G:14.32% B:0.63%) 50.63% (G:18.41% B:1.53%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/20* 24/20	eq: +0.321 (-0.189)
	Player: Opponent: 44.25% (G:9.68% B:0.31%) 55.75% (G:16.56% B:0.73%)
3.	1-ply	Bar/20* 13/9	eq: +0.047 (-0.462)
	Player: Opponent: 38.96% (G:9.17% B:0.38%) 61.04% (G:24.12% B:2.88%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Errors come in clumps.  I made the anchor Bar/20*, 24/20 when hitting two was correct by a landslide Bar/20*/16*

Not sure what I was thinking at the time.  Looking at it now it seems rather obvious.
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Later in the same game.  I have recubed to 4 earlier and now have 61 to play.

is GammonsDad score: 4 pip: 115

7 point match

pip: 149 score: 3 is Chutzpah

XGID=---aBBCaBB----A--bdbBda--A:2:-1:1:61:3:4:0:7:10

to play 61

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/24 9/3*	eq: +0.159
	Player: Opponent: 57.94% (G:21.93% B:1.18%) 42.06% (G:16.48% B:1.01%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/24 14/8	eq: +0.097 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 54.87% (G:15.88% B:0.73%) 45.13% (G:11.23% B:0.33%)
3.	3-ply	Bar/24 20/14	eq: +0.067 (-0.092)
	Player: Opponent: 53.35% (G:15.84% B:0.99%) 46.65% (G:17.18% B:0.63%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played Bar/24, 14/8.  The idea was to hold my main asset - the prime - while putting pressure on Gammonsdad to roll well.  I probably overemphasized the fact that most of his 4's which anchor on the outside still leave a blot on the inside.

Better was Bar/24, 9/3*.  This also challenges GammonsDad to roll well but I make the first strike.  In addition, I have the better board, an anchor, am down in the race, and opponenet has a home board blot - all classic Magriel indicators that a bold play is called for.