GammonsDad - 1st match

What follows are selected errors from my first online match against GammonsDad.  This is from the USBGF internet team tournament.
First game of 7 point match.  I have already sent the cube and have 22 to play.

is GammonsDad score: 0 pip: 113

7 point match

pip: 100 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-B-aB-CBD---bB--a-bcbbb---:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:7:10

to play 22

1.	XG Roller++	13/9(2)	eq: +0.577
	Player: Opponent: 79.92% (G:4.48% B:0.03%) 20.08% (G:0.88% B:0.01%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/11(2) 7/5(2)	eq: +0.562 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 79.52% (G:3.57% B:0.02%) 20.48% (G:0.41% B:0.01%)
3.	XG Roller++	7/3*(2)	eq: +0.548 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 76.54% (G:10.71% B:0.04%) 23.46% (G:2.47% B:0.06%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

This is one of those 'play safe' and just win or 'play greedy' and go for the gammon questions.  Othet than feel, I am not really sure how to decide on something like this.

I switched 7/3*(2) going for the G's.  Turns out this is a small error and that the wimpy 13/9(2) or 13/11(2), 7/5(2) are both better.
Compared to 13/9(2), my play gains 6% gammons at expense of 3.5% wins, slightly less than the 2 for 1 money ratio.  Gammon price is .54 at this score so I would need a hair more than 2 to 1 to make the gammon play right.

++++ Variant.   Keeping pipcount the same, but giving me a 5 point board makes switching clearly correct, and not switching a massive blunder.

**************

I trail 7 away 5 away and am on roll.  Cube action?

is GammonsDad score: 2 pip: 142

7 point match

pip: 119 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a-C-aD-D---bBB--bcea-----:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.14% (G:20.64% B:0.62%)	67.24% (G:22.02% B:0.67%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.86% (G:6.54% B:0.24%)	32.76% (G:6.69% B:0.26%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.491	+1.066
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.759 (-0.173)
Double/Take:	+0.933
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.067)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed a strong double here. 

++ The same position for money is .79 Double / Take (.70 No Double / Take), so the score only partially explains the cube.

I have him outboarded, am up in the race and am sort of shooting at two loose blots.  My structure is awkward, but 11 guys in the zone can turn into a potent attacking force quickly.

Looked at in this light, the double seems more obvious.  Throw in the score deficit and I should be cubing for sure.

I suppose I overemphasized the one negative aspect of my position - that is I am stacked and stripped.

**********
Same position after I didn't cube.  Now I have 61 to play.

is GammonsDad score: 2 pip: 142

7 point match

pip: 119 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a-C-aD-D---bBB--bcea-----:0:0:1:61:0:2:0:7:10

to play 61

1.	XG Roller++	8/2 3/2	eq: +0.796
	Player: Opponent: 67.73% (G:15.83% B:0.40%) 32.27% (G:5.64% B:0.17%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/7 8/7	eq: +0.764 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 66.89% (G:14.70% B:0.66%) 33.11% (G:6.02% B:0.24%)
3.	XG Roller++	14/13 14/8	eq: +0.706 (-0.090)
	Player: Opponent: 66.64% (G:12.35% B:0.26%) 33.36% (G:5.48% B:0.15%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

61 is actually a decent roll but I misplayed it.

Making the duece point is best, and looking at the position now a week later seems rather obvious.  The only purpose in life for my dilly builder on the 3 point is to make the 2 or 1 point.  I have the opportunity to do so now and should seize it.  As a side bonus it puts more pressure on my opponent to anchor up.
Making the bar point is second best.  This gives me decent structure which should make it easier to roll home or attack should GammonsDad miss me next roll.  Also he only has a 1 1/2 point board so his hits are not too dangerous at the moment.

My wimpy play 14/8, 14/13 is the wrong concept.  I clear the rearmost point which is good, but add to my stacks while giving up a point instead of making one.  Ironically I now have less flexibility because my overstacked position has few landing places to run to.

***********
I trail 5 away Crawford and have 42 to play.

is GammonsDad score: 6 pip: 144

7 point match Crawford

pip: 155 score: 2 is Chutzpah

XGID=----BBBbB--BbC-b-d-e----B-:0:0:1:42:2:6:1:7:10

to play 42

1.	XG Roller++	24/20 13/11	eq: -0.055
	Player: Opponent: 46.69% (G:9.67% B:0.31%) 53.31% (G:11.83% B:0.34%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/18	eq: -0.055 (0.000)
	Player: Opponent: 46.74% (G:8.78% B:0.27%) 53.26% (G:10.67% B:0.30%)
3.	XG Roller++	24/22 13/9	eq: -0.056 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 46.58% (G:10.63% B:0.32%) 53.42% (G:11.87% B:0.41%)
4.	XG Roller++	24/22 8/4	eq: -0.075 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 45.63% (G:11.19% B:0.33%) 54.37% (G:12.77% B:0.46%)
5.	XG Roller++	24/20 8/6	eq: -0.076 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 45.63% (G:10.51% B:0.30%) 54.37% (G:12.74% B:0.41%)
6.	XG Roller++	24/20 11/9	eq: -0.084 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 45.18% (G:10.50% B:0.33%) 54.82% (G:12.98% B:0.58%)
7.	XG Roller++	24/22 24/20	eq: -0.088 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 45.12% (G:8.40% B:0.27%) 54.88% (G:11.92% B:0.29%)
8.	XG Roller++	13/9 11/9	eq: -0.096 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 44.63% (G:9.94% B:0.30%) 55.37% (G:12.49% B:0.46%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

While my play wasn't god awful, it is an error of concept and worth exploring.  I made the 8th best play, 13/9, 11/9.  I figured make another point and don't really care if I get hit.  I also don't care if I get gammoned and may be a nuisance on the ace point.  I also don't want him to unload his stacks on my little head.

+++  The plays are similar for money so the gammons aren't the issue.

The most obvious thing to note is that the 7 superior plays all involve splitting one way or another.

Rather than my OTB thinking, perhaps I should been thinking like this ...

My opponent has an anchor, so I need one to.  I have the better board so contact / action favors me.  The risk of splitting is small now.  The race is close so I keep many options open to winning.  I might amchor and win the race or I might anchor and hit a  shot later or I my opponent might leave a blot immediately.  Should I hit I will become an immediate favrite having gained in the race and possessing the better board.  24/18 is the best split probaably because of the distraction factor.  Barring doubles, GammonsDad will not be able to hit me and make a home board point at the same time.  Further he will have to abandon the stripped midpoint or 10 point to hit me.

************

I trail 4 away Post Crawford and have alreaded turned the cube.  43 to play.

is GammonsDad score: 6 pip: 153

7 point match

pip: 135 score: 3 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a-C-bCBC---bBa--b-cbbB---:1:-1:1:43:3:6:0:7:10

to play 43

1.	XG Roller++	22/15	eq: -0.107
	Player: Opponent: 36.86% (G:7.43% B:0.30%) 63.14% (G:22.31% B:0.80%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/1*	eq: -0.122 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 35.89% (G:7.64% B:0.17%) 64.11% (G:17.72% B:0.74%)
3.	XG Roller++	8/4 7/4	eq: -0.136 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 34.64% (G:8.18% B:0.30%) 65.36% (G:18.05% B:0.84%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the 'creative' play 8/4, 7/4 which improves my board but leaves a double shot.

Better was 22/15.  Running seems to be the best.  Given the score, gammons don't count.  Up in the race and the role plays awkward otherwise, it looks like racing is a good idea.  There is a slight duplication of 3's which is probably a small factor as well.