LordoftheDice

Below are some blunders from a recent money session against LordoftheDice.

I am on roll in the first position. Cube action?

is lordofthedice score: 51 pip: 126

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 130 score: 48 is Chutzpah

XGID=--a-BBC-AAABe--C-b-b-a-bb-:0:0:1:00:48:51:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.28% (G:17.60% B:0.31%)	69.88% (G:18.95% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.72% (G:3.72% B:0.05%)	30.12% (G:4.47% B:0.07%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.547	+1.090
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.798 (-0.078)
Double/Take:	+0.876
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.124)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

I missed a strong double here.  Although I am down a bit in the race, I have a very strong position.  I have blots but most likely I will close one or two of the 8/9/10 points next turn.  After this, Lord is under pressure to throw a good roll.  Even if he rolls a joker and hits me I have a return shot at his blot, or if he escapes the race is close and I have plenty of game left.

************
Next position I have 22 to play.

is lordofthedice score: 55 pip: 120

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 127 score: 52 is Chutzpah

XGID=--A-b-ECB---bB--Bb-cba-ab-:0:0:1:22:52:55:3:0:10

to play 22

1.	XG Roller+	13/9(2)	eq: +0.257
	Player: Opponent: 57.90% (G:5.82% B:0.12%) 42.10% (G:5.27% B:0.07%)
2.	XG Roller+	16/14(2) 13/11(2)	eq: +0.150 (-0.107)
	Player: Opponent: 54.57% (G:3.81% B:0.10%) 45.43% (G:4.38% B:0.04%)
3.	3-ply	13/11(2) 7/3	eq: +0.072 (-0.185)
	Player: Opponent: 52.84% (G:5.20% B:0.13%) 47.16% (G:6.22% B:0.05%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

I went with the half-way move, 16/14(2), 13/11(2).  This has the merit of keeping some contact on his midpoint while aiming a builder at the 5-point.  But it misss the mark conceptually.

When ahead race, when behind keep contact.  This is the most basic concept in backgammon, yet I continue to butcher it!  I am ahead one pip after the roll, which means I am really down since Lord will be on roll. The best move is this 13/9(2) which forms a 4 block in front of his rear anchor while keeping maximim pressure on his midpoint and more outfield control.

*************
Later in the same game I have a 63 to play.

is lordofthedice score: 55 pip: 104

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 116 score: 52 is Chutzpah

XGID=--A-bBDBB--Bb-B----abbbbb-:0:0:1:63:52:55:3:0:10

to play 63

1.	XG Roller+	11/8 11/5	eq: +0.349
	Player: Opponent: 59.79% (G:5.19% B:0.12%) 40.21% (G:3.63% B:0.06%)
2.	XG Roller+	14/11 14/8	eq: +0.173 (-0.176)
	Player: Opponent: 54.74% (G:3.69% B:0.10%) 45.26% (G:4.03% B:0.02%)
3.	4-ply	11/2	eq: +0.235 (-0.113)
	Player: Opponent: 57.04% (G:5.29% B:0.15%) 42.96% (G:5.42% B:0.03%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

I made the same mistake.  14/11, 14/8 looks pretty.  It prepares to disengage while giving me spares to play with.  Yet it's wrong for the same reason as above.  I am slightly behind in the race and want to keep contact.  My pay lets Lord off the hook by giving him free moves off the midpoint while he waits for a a big double.  Much better was 11/8, 11/5 forcing Lord to throw a good number else crunch his forward position else take a big risk by leaving the back anchor.  In short, my play puts Lord under no pressute at all!

*************
Still later in the same game.  I am on roll.  Cube action?

is lordofthedice score: 55 pip: 69

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 79 score: 52 is Chutzpah

XGID=--BBaCDBB-----a-----cbbbd-:0:0:1:00:52:55:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	76.58% (G:3.91% B:0.08%)	76.25% (G:3.93% B:0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23.42% (G:1.65% B:0.02%)	23.75% (G:1.83% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.555	+1.093
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.653 (-0.324)
Double/Take:	+0.977
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.023)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

I missed a monster cube here.  It's barely a take.

I must have overrated the pipcount, where I am 10 pips down.  But mostly this is just an illusion.  After the roll the race will be very close, plus his low pip count is partly a mirage due to the wastage on the ace-point. 

I have good diversification of numbers.  Low numbers point of his head while big numbers are good for racing.  I count 14 numbers which point on his head, and 55 and 66 are pretty good too.  When almost half the numbers lose the market, that's a sign you should be cubing.

**************
In the next position, LordoftheDice has just doubled.  Take or Drop?

is lordofthedice score: 55 pip: 102

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 125 score: 54 is Chutzpah

XGID=--BBBCB-----b--c-b-bDbbb--:0:0:-1:00:54:55:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	74.18% (G:4.61% B:0.08%)	74.07% (G:4.72% B:0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	25.82% (G:2.42% B:0.03%)	25.93% (G:2.41% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.506	+1.009
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.795 (-0.037)
Double/Take:	+0.832
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.168)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

I dropped but apparently the position is a super-easy take.  I have a 5-point board, so any hit is a winner.  What I didn't like was the 4 men on the 5-anchor.  I thought this really forced me to perform next roll.  I guess I overemphasized this factor in deciding to drop.  I pop out next roll with any 4 or 6, plus 22 and 25.  Other numbers play inside.  If I pop out and get hit I will still reenter just over 50% of the time so that's not killer.  The gammons are still pretty low.  Another factor is Lord has an extra outside point, the 10 point to clear.  So even if he clears the midpoint the game is not over yet.
************
In the next position I own the cube and am on roll.  Cube action?

is lordofthedice score: 56 pip: 157

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 122 score: 54 is Chutzpah

XGID=aaBBB-BC----bBb-bb-c-bAA--:1:1:1:00:54:56:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65.14% (G:40.45% B:1.18%)	65.34% (G:40.39% B:1.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.86% (G:7.49% B:0.40%)	34.66% (G:7.43% B:0.39%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.640	+1.289
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.852 (-0.148)
Redouble/Take:	+1.042 (+0.042)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

I was surprised to learn the is a redouble/pass.

I am up in the race, have him outboarded and he is in the air against my 4 point board.  I suppose this is pretty scary.  So scary in fact that is is a close but proper drop.

I was focused on the fact that Lord has a pretty nice offensive structure which will give good counterplay should he anchor somewhere.  Also I have two men to escape and I thought I wasn't really threatening anything until I escaped one of them.  Improper judgment.  Also I seem to have underrated my gammons.  Computer says I gammon him 40% of the time - I would have never guessed the number was so high.

************
So I chose to roll.  How do you play 62?

is lordofthedice score: 56 pip: 157

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 122 score: 54 is Chutzpah

XGID=aaBBB-BC----bBb-bb-c-bAA--:1:1:1:62:54:56:3:0:10

to play 62

1.	XG Roller+	22/20 7/1*	eq: +0.842
	Player: Opponent: 64.11% (G:42.52% B:0.77%) 35.89% (G:7.66% B:0.40%)
2.	XG Roller+	13/11 13/7	eq: +0.655 (-0.187)
	Player: Opponent: 57.79% (G:31.11% B:1.49%) 42.21% (G:9.06% B:0.42%)
3.	4-ply	13/11 7/1*	eq: +0.804 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 62.86% (G:43.62% B:0.82%) 37.14% (G:9.68% B:0.65%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

Hopefully you did better than I.

I went for 13/11, 13/7.  Playing safe while aiming for the 5-point.

Best was 13/11, 7/1*.  Also aiming for the 5-point but putting a second checker up against a 4.5 point board.  It will be do or die for Lord next turn.

*************
Next position I have 11 to play.

is lordofthedice score: 61 pip: 122

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 160 score: 60 is Chutzpah

XGID=----B-D-B--AcCab-b-eABb---:0:0:1:11:60:61:3:0:10

to play 11

1.	XG Roller++	8/7(2) 6/5(2)	eq: -0.667
	Player: Opponent: 31.96% (G:4.48% B:0.13%) 68.04% (G:11.77% B:0.19%)
2.	XG Roller++	11/9 6/5(2)	eq: -0.679 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 31.83% (G:4.54% B:0.14%) 68.17% (G:12.05% B:0.24%)
3.	XG Roller++	21/20 8/7 6/5(2)	eq: -0.693 (-0.026)
	Player: Opponent: 31.32% (G:4.72% B:0.11%) 68.68% (G:11.65% B:0.25%)
4.	XG Roller++	21/20 11/10 6/5(2)	eq: -0.708 (-0.040)
	Player: Opponent: 31.02% (G:4.53% B:0.10%) 68.98% (G:11.30% B:0.17%)
5.	XG Roller+	21/20(2) 6/5(2)	eq: -0.878 (-0.210)
	Player: Opponent: 25.52% (G:2.47% B:0.07%) 74.48% (G:6.09% B:0.07%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

I advanced the anchor, picked up the blot and made the 5-point.  21/10(2), 6/5(2).

All the best plays involve making the 5-point and keeping my men on both his 20 and 21 points.

I can make the 5-anchor and leave my man on his 4-point... or I can keep the 4-anchor and leave my man on the 5-point.  The equities are close either way. 

The main point - once again - is when behind in the race keep contact!!  When will I ever learn?

*************
Later in the same game I rolled a joker 56 from the bar.  How best to play it?

is lordofthedice score: 61 pip: 88

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 134 score: 60 is Chutzpah

XGID=--aBBCB-A----BAa-c-cA-bbcA:0:0:1:65:60:61:3:0:10

to play 65

1.	XG Roller+	Bar/20 14/8	eq: +0.660
	Player: Opponent: 69.84% (G:7.85% B:0.23%) 30.16% (G:6.02% B:0.04%)
2.	XG Roller+	Bar/20 8/2*	eq: +0.522 (-0.138)
	Player: Opponent: 67.74% (G:18.22% B:0.50%) 32.26% (G:12.25% B:0.11%)
3.	1-ply	Bar/20 13/7	eq: -0.159 (-0.819)
	Player: Opponent: 49.87% (G:8.28% B:0.24%) 50.13% (G:24.50% B:0.48%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

I hit him loose, Bar/20, 8/2*.  My thinking was this puts tremendous pressure on Lord to come in, else I cube him out.  Even if he hits, I reckoned I had the anchor plus over half the rolls to reenter and keep the game going.

Better was Bar/20, 14/8.  To be honest, I am not sure why.  Perhaps this move makes a better structure while taking less risk.  Next roll he cleans up the blot and then I begin the containment phase.  I slowly imrove the position - hit loose with a 3 else jump out with both back men on a big number else bring a guy down from the outfield into attacking range with medium numbers.  I should try to ease into a cube instead of putting the game on the line all at once?  Not sure.

**********

Next position I have just rolled a joker 44.  How to play it?

is lordofthedice score: 62 pip: 153

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 118 score: 62 is Chutzpah

XGID=--ABabD-BB--cD-a--acbb----:0:0:1:44:62:62:3:0:10

to play 44

1.	XG Roller+	13/9(4)	eq: +1.000
	Player: Opponent: 77.67% (G:10.99% B:0.09%) 22.33% (G:1.83% B:0.06%)
2.	XG Roller+	13/9 8/4*(2) 6/2	eq: +0.910 (-0.090)
	Player: Opponent: 73.89% (G:16.27% B:0.20%) 26.11% (G:2.62% B:0.05%)
3.	2-ply	8/4*(2) 6/2(2)	eq: +0.779 (-0.221)
	Player: Opponent: 69.01% (G:17.60% B:0.22%) 30.99% (G:4.38% B:0.20%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

I overplayed the position, moving 13/9, 8/4*(2), 6/2.  This is very strong, putting a guy in the air against a 4-point board but misses the essence of the position.  After my play, Lord has a chance to simply enter after which he take my cube.

The superior 13/9(4) prepares to simply double him out next turn.

I missed a small cube before the roll.  Interestingly the best play after 44 with the cube turned is still the simple 13/9(4).  I don't win enough gammons to justify the big play.  Best is to try and roll home the win safely.

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Same game.  33 to play.  Safe or greedy?

is lordofthedice score: 62 pip: 113

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 49 score: 62 is Chutzpah

XGID=-ABFBbC-----a-----bcbcb---:2:-1:1:33:62:62:3:0:10

to play 33

1.	XG Roller+	3/Off(4)	eq: +1.282
	Player: Opponent: 96.74% (G:35.80% B:0.10%) 3.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller+	6/3(2) 6/Off	eq: +1.171 (-0.111)
	Player: Opponent: 100.00% (G:17.14% B:0.00%) 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.	4-ply	6/Off 3/Off(2)	eq: +1.215 (-0.068)
	Player: Opponent: 96.86% (G:28.83% B:0.03%) 3.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

Here ripping 4 is clear, as the extra gammons more than compensate for the occasional loss.