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February 29, 2012

Replies to 41$

Replies to 41$ Error Key Tie Small Medium Blunder
Per XG opening Book < .005 < .02 < .06 > .06
General Notes
Always hit if you can but 11N is only a small error.  11H is slightly superior b/c opponent has bad 6's from the bar.
Counterslot with 21 and 51.  51$ probably correct owing to the slight duplication of opponent's 4's
43U is a rare case where up is correct.  Reason is probably to molest the builder on the 9 pt
Important to split with 32 and 52.  Logic again is opponent will almost certainly make 5 point, when you are behind in the priming battle.
63R to leap over his offensive structure
33 Up and make an inner point for sure. Making 5 point or 3 point with the other 3's are tied.
44 hit two, then make the 4 point.  This wins more gammons.  Note 13/9(2) with the other 4's wins more plain games.
Reply Roll BEST 2nd 3rd 4th
Point Making Rolls 31 H 24/20*                  
                       
42 H 24/20*, 13/11 U 24/20*, 24/22 0.0128      
                       
53 H 24/16*          
                       
61 P 13/7, 8/7          
                       
Split or Slot 21 $ 13/11, 6/5 S 24/23, 13/11 0.0186            
  counterslot.  There is some duplication to help you (compared to 21$)                  
41 U 24/20*, 24/23          
                       
51 $ 13/8, 6/5 S 24/23, 13/8 0.0059      
  counterslot b/c of duplication again Splitting barely a mistake            
Split or Two Down 54 H 24/20*, 13/8 R 24/20*/15 0.0359            
  Hit and Stay                  
52 S 24/22, 13/8 $ 13/8, 6/4 0.0202      
                       
43 U 24/20*, 24/21 S 24/20*, 13/10 0.0136      
  not sure why up is best.  Perhaps b/c our 10 pt builder is inefficient or perhaps b/c his 9 pt builder is strong                  
32 S 24/21, 13/11 Z 24/22, 13/10 0.0207 D 13/11, 13/10 0.036  
  split against the prime       Down wrong concept        
6-X Rolls 65 R 24/13                  
                       
64 R 24/20*/14 X 24/20*, 13/7 0.0596      
                       
63 R 24/15 S 24/18, 13/10 0.0109      
  trying to jump past his offensive structure                  
62 H 24/16*          
                       
Doubles 11 H 24/20* N 8/7(2), 6/5(2) 0.0056            
  hit b/c opp has bad sixes still, near is only a small error            
22 e 24/20*, 6/4(2)          
  hit and make a home board point squeezes most equity from this great roll                  
33 E 24/21(2), 6/3(2) C 24/21(2), 8/5(2) 0.0013      
  Up and make a home board point is concept.  Opp. Would rather cover than hit you with a 7.  Making 5 point or 3 points are tied.                  
44 c 24/20*/16*, 8/4(2) b 24/20*/16*, 13/9(2) 0.0118 B 24/20*(2), 13/9(2) 0.0473  
  more G's compensates for less wins more plain wins but less gammons not bad but better plays available      
55 P 13/3(2)          
                       
66 B 24/18(2), 13/7(2)          
                       

2 comments:

  1. I quite like your organization of the responses.

    When I reorganized my spreadsheet this way it's easier to see the interesting plays and exceptions.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thank you. Are you willing to share your spreadsheet?

    ReplyDelete