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February 28, 2012

Replies to 21$

Continuing to look at opening replies with my new format.

Replies to 21$ Error Key Tie Small Medium Blunder
Per XG opening Book < .005 < .02 < .06 > .06
General Notes
Hit if you can except 11 b/c opponent has good sixes from bar
Counterslot with 21 even though opponents numbers are diversified.  (but Split is only a small error)
Split with non-6 2's and 3's that miss.  Stick explains that opponent covers 5 pt with 31 of 36 rolls so you need to split now!
63 Run is best, duplicating 1's and 3's.  63S gives too many hit and cover numbers but counterslotting Z is only a small error
62S sucks beats 62Z.  62R seems to diversify opponents good numbers
24/21(2), 8/5(2) is a rare time when you make 5 pt with 33.  Reason is opponent would rather cover 5 point than hit you with a 7
Reply Roll BEST 2nd 3rd 4th
Point Making Rolls 31 H 24/20* P 8/5, 6/5 0.1132            
                       
42 H 24/20*, 13/11          
                       
53 P 8/3, 6/3 S 24/21, 13/8 0.033      
                       
61 P 13/7, 8/7          
                       
Split or Slot 21 $ 13/11, 6/5 S 24/23, 13/11 0.0061            
  counterslot                  
41 U 24/20*, 24/23          
                       
51 S 24/23, 13/8 $ 13/8, 6/5 0.0217      
                       
Split or Two Down 54 H 24/20*, 13/8 R 24/20*/15 0.007            
  Hit and Stay only small error              
52 S 24/22, 13/8 D 13/11, 13/8 0.0238 $ 13/8, 6/4 0.0284  
                       
43 S 24/20*, 13/10 U 24/21, 24/20* 0.002      
                       
32 S 24/21, 13/11 D 13/11, 13/10 0.0247 Z 24/22, 13/10 0.0287  
                       
6-X Rolls 65 R 24/13                  
                       
64 K 24/20*/14          
                       
63 R 24/15 Z 24/21, 13/7 0.0078 S 24/18, 13/10 0.0228  
  Run with 63                  
62 S 24/18, 13/11 Z 24/22, 13/7 0.0127      
  But Split with 62                  
Doubles 11 N 8/7(2), 6/5(2) H 24/20* 0.0415            
  Don't hit b/c opponent has good sixes                  
22 e 24/20*, 6/4(2)          
  hit and make a home board point squeezes most equity from this great roll                  
33 C 24/21(2), 8/5(2) B 24/21(2), 13/10(2) 0.0319 E 24/21(2), 6/3(20 0.0439  
  you can make 5 point b/c opponent has loose blots, and won't hit you if he rolls a 7 anyway                  
44 B 24/20*(2), 13/9(2) C 24/20*(2), 8/4(2) 0.047      
                       
55 P 13/3(2)          
                       
66 B 24/18(2), 13/7(2)          
                       

2 comments:

  1. Nactation note:
    21$-22E is correct since 24/20* hits a checker. e is 24/22(2) 6/4(2)
    Dmitriy

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    Replies
    1. Are you sure? I thought capital E was each, or up and down. And that lower case e represents the variant, in this case hit and make an inner point.

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