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March 1, 2012

Replies to 51$

Replies to 51$ Error Key Tie Small Medium Blunder
Per XG opening Book < .005 < .02 < .06 > .06
General Notes
51$ is one of the weaker slotting plays since opponent only has 1's and 3's to cover.
Always hit except with 11.  Reason is you are ahead in the priming game after making the bar and 5 points.
Counterslot again with 21 and 51. 
Also counterslot with 52 and 32 though splitting is also OK.  Reasons: duplication and you be bold against the weaker slotting tries
43 Split beats 43U since there is no blot on 9 point to contest
Run with both 63 and 62; theme again to jump over opponent's offense
33 Cross (up and make the 5 pt) beats E by a significant margin.  Unsure why this is so much better compared to 41$
Reply Roll BEST 2nd 3rd 4th
Point Making Rolls 31 H 24/20*                  
                       
42 H 24/20*, 13/11          
                       
53 P 8/3, 6/3 S 24/21, 13/8 0.0358      
                       
61 P 13/7, 8/7          
                       
Split or Slot 21 $ 13/11, 6/5 S 24/23, 13/11 0.022            
  counterslot.  Probably b/c he only has 2 covers                  
41 U 24/20*, 24/23          
                       
51 $ 13/8, 6/5 S 13/8, 24/23 0.0047      
  counterslot b/c of duplication again but split is tied                  
Split or Two Down 54 H 24/20*, 13/8 R 24/20*/15 0.0154            
  Hit and Stay                  
52 $ 13/8, 6/4 S 24/22, 13/8 0.0039 D 13/11, 13/8 0.0262  
  counterslot and split are tied                  
43 S 24/20*, 13/10 U 24/20*, 24/21 0.022      
      2 Up is wrong now compared to vs 41$. perhaps b/c we are splitting into stacks now            
32 $ 13/10, 6/4 S 24/21, 13/11 0.0006 Z 24/22, 13/10 0.0072 D 13/11, 13/10 0.024
  gives you good sixes plus dups opp's hit and covers                  
6-X Rolls 65 R 24/13                  
                       
64 R 24/20*/14 X 24/20*, 13/7 0.0636      
                       
63 R 24/15 $ 13/4 0.0274 S 24/18, 13/10 0.0299  
  trying to jump past his offensive structure                  
62 R 24/16 S 24/18, 13/11 0.018 $ 13/5 0.038  
                       
Doubles 11 N 8/7(2), 6/5(2) H 24/20* 0.0801            
  don't hit b/c you you have superior priming game and he may not cover                  
22 e 24/20*, 6/4(2)          
  hit and make a home board point squeezes most equity from this great roll                  
33 C 24/21(2), 8/5(2) E 24/21(2), 6/3(2) 0.0184      
  Up and make 5 pt.  Not sure why making 3 pt is worse here compared to 41$                  
44 B 24/20*(2), 13/9(2)          
  more G's compensates for less wins                  
55 P 13/3(2)          
                       
66 B 24/18(2), 13/7(2)          
                       

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