After the Hit

Phil Simborg and Stick Rice gave a lecture titled "After the Hit" at the Cleveland Open earlier this year.  "After the Hit" refers to scenario where you hit the opponent during the bearoff. They provided tips to playing the containment game as well as cube guidelines for recube actions after a successful closeout.  What follows are my notes from the cube portion of the presentation.

 

First - you need to estimate your winning chances.  See table below.

 

Win Chances for Side Hit during bearoff
Perfect bearoff           (spares on 6,5,4)
Perfect bearoff            (no-miss bearoff)
Men Off	Win Chances Perfect	Weaver Formula  (9X - 23)	Stick Rule of Thumb	Win Chances Ace Point Open
0	3.0%	N/A		2.3%
1	4.3%	N/A		3.0%
2	6.5%	N/A		4.8%
3	10.2%	N/A		7.5%
4	15.4%	N/A		11.4%
5	21.9%	22%		16.5%
6	30.7%	31%	30%	23.7%
7	39.0%	40%	40%	33.0%
8	49.2%	49%	50%	42.8%
9	57.9%	58%	60%	47.3%
10	68.2%	67%	70%	62.1%
11	75.7%	76%		72.6%
12	82.6%	85%		79.1%
13	79.1%	N/A		76.7%
14	91.5%	N/A		91.5%

Perfect, perfect with 5 off is redouble/ close take.

I like Paul Weaver's formula, which is 9 X - 23.  Only applies for 5 men off through 12 off.  Example.  6 off would (9 x6) - 23 or 31%.

I also like Paul Lamford's approximation.  Even though it is too inaccurate to be really useful, it is so easy to remember!!  It is 5-25-75.  5% for one man off.  Then add 5% steps until 5 off or 25%,  Then you add 10% steps until 75%.  Then you add 5% steps again.  So would be 5-10-15-20-25.  Then 35-45-55-65-75.  Then 80-85-90-95.  To be fair he stated to subtract 2-3% win chances when opponent had perfect bearoff (6/5/4 spares).  When you do this his formula is a bit better than the chart would indicate.

Stick further advises these adjustments to the chart:

Each spare away from perfect adds / deducts about 1.25% win chances.  (** applies to both sides)

Deduct 6-7% for open ace point.

Regarding the open ace point, I also like a rule of thumb that Frank Talbot gave me.  He said to treat an open ace point as if you bore off one less man.

***********

Now for the cube guidelines.  First, Phil and Stick reject the old Robertie rule of thumb.  Forget you ever learned to recube when 5 less checkers!

• No Redouble / Take
• 5 fewer checkers off than opponent
• Opponent's checker on bar
• perfect bearoff (all on ace-duece)
• perfect bearoff (6 point open and no gaps)

• Redouble / Take
• 4 fewer checkers off than opponent
• Opponent's checker on bar
• perfect bearoff (all on ace-duece)
• perfect bearoff (6 point open and no gaps)

• Redouble / Pass
• 3 fewer checkers off than opponent
• Opponent's checker on bar
• perfect bearoff (all on ace-duece)
• perfect bearoff (6 point open and no gaps)

• Redouble / Maybe Take or Maybe Pass
• 3 fewer checkers off than opponent
• Opponent's checker on bar
• perfect bearoff (all on ace-duece)
• shot chances.  Depends on how likely you are to hit a shot from the bar

************

With ace point open, you double earlier.

Redouble with 5 fewer checkers off instead of 4.

Generally a take if 7 or more checkers borne off.

Generally a pass if 6 or less checkers borne off.