Dougie post 1

Below are selected errors from an online money session versus Dougie.

I hold the cube and am on roll.  Cube action?

is dougie score: 0 pip: 147

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 129 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=aaBABBC---B-c----c-ccB-aA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	74.38% (G:49.60% B:2.53%)	74.43% (G:49.41% B:2.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	25.62% (G:5.23% B:0.25%)	25.57% (G:5.22% B:0.26%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.954	+1.905
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+1.126
Redouble/Take:	+1.723 (+0.597)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (-0.126)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 17.4%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

I doubled him out when I am way too good.  I have him outboarded, am up in the race, and have significant threats.  Obviously Dougie is dropping.  But what can  really go wrong here?  Not too much.  My rolls are well diversified.  1's and 2's hit a second checker while 3's and 7's make a 5 point board.  Most likely I have a cash ro a very strong recube even if things go bad - so all in all a clear play on.

**************

Cube in the middle.  I have 64 to play.  Your move?

is dougie score: 0 pip: 94

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 94 score: 2 is Chutzpah

XGID=-A-C-aD-E-B---a--b-bccba--:0:0:1:64:2:0:3:0:10

to play 64

1.	XG Roller++	8/4 8/2	eq: +0.316
	Player: Opponent: 60.01% (G:0.58% B:0.01%) 39.99% (G:0.97% B:0.02%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/2 6/2	eq: +0.308 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 59.47% (G:0.54% B:0.01%) 40.53% (G:0.97% B:0.02%)
3.	XG Roller++	10/6 10/4	eq: +0.236 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 57.36% (G:0.26% B:0.00%) 42.64% (G:0.47% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

I figured up in the race, race - even though a small lead.  So I moved 10/6, 10/4.  The computer prefers either triple slotting or making the 2 point.  To be honest, I haven't learned anything from this problem because I have no idea what the computer is up to.

The best I can come up with is that I need to fill in the gaps in my board for the bearoff - why it likes 8/4, 8/2 best.  It's unlikely that I leave a shot here anyway so I might as well prepare for the bearoff.

The alternative 8/2, 6/2 fills in a gap, makes a point and puts some pressure on his 5 point blot.  I will have some 'pick, pass and cover' joker rolls. 

*************

early game 64 to play.

is dougie score: 0 pip: 175

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 156 score: 3 is Chutzpah

XGID=-aaaB-C-CA--dD---c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:64:3:0:3:0:10

to play 64

1.	XG Roller++	21/15 13/9	eq: +0.599
	Player: Opponent: 64.25% (G:18.10% B:0.95%) 35.75% (G:7.58% B:0.28%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/2* 6/2	eq: +0.574 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 61.23% (G:24.61% B:1.63%) 38.77% (G:8.47% B:0.35%)
3.	3-ply	13/9 8/2*	eq: +0.503 (-0.095)
	Player: Opponent: 61.19% (G:21.33% B:1.33%) 38.81% (G:8.64% B:0.36%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

First off, this is a borderline Double / Take.  I did not double.

I pointed on his head, 8/2, 6/2* which is a decent play.  Making a point and putting him in the air, how bad could that be?

The computer thinks the best play is 21/15, 13/9.  Why?

The 9 point starts a compact structure - 4 parts of a prime,  and I have a block his guy on my 3 point six away.  All my point are in front of him - contrasted with making the 2 point which is attack oriented and not prime oriented.  Also, there is duplication at play.  Many of his hitting 3's  - 31, 32, 34 all either make a point or anchor and it's unclear if Dougie should even hit.

Not a big equity drain, but some interesting concepts at play here.

**********
51 to play.  centered cube.

is dougie score: 0 pip: 125

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 131 score: 3 is Chutzpah

XGID=-bBCB-C-----bB---b-bbBcbA-:0:0:1:51:3:0:3:0:10

to play 51

1.	XG Roller++	21/15	eq: -0.328
	Player: Opponent: 42.87% (G:15.44% B:1.24%) 57.13% (G:27.74% B:1.64%)
2.	XG Roller+	21/16 3/2	eq: -0.293 (+0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 43.50% (G:15.08% B:1.16%) 56.50% (G:27.07% B:1.45%)
3.	XG Roller+	13/8 3/2	eq: -0.415 (-0.087)
	Player: Opponent: 39.29% (G:13.42% B:0.65%) 60.71% (G:24.04% B:1.04%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

I made a serious error this time.  Fear got the best of me, as I was afraid to leave the anchor.  I played the lame 13/8, 3/2.  Of course this play is actually much more dangerous than my 'safe' play anyway.  He hits me with any ace, dueuce, or 43 44 66.  After this it's do or die from the bar - and perhaps death even if I do come in.  Lesson - don't be afraid!!

Much better was 21/15 or 21/16, 3/2.  21/16, 3/2 makes the most sense to me as we duplicate 4's everywhere.

**********
Later in the same game.  I got away with my bonehead play and things are looking good.  How to play 62?

is dougie score: 0 pip: 161

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 110 score: 3 is Chutzpah

XGID=bbCBBBB-A---b--A---bcAbbA-:1:-1:1:62:3:0:3:0:10

to play 62

1.	XG Roller++	24/16	eq: +1.143
	Player: Opponent: 80.48% (G:52.76% B:8.55%) 19.52% (G:1.07% B:0.07%)
2.	XG Roller+	24/18 15/13	eq: +1.142 (0.000)
	Player: Opponent: 80.34% (G:52.92% B:8.70%) 19.66% (G:1.09% B:0.07%)
3.	XG Roller+	24/18 8/6	eq: +1.123 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 79.93% (G:52.11% B:8.53%) 20.07% (G:1.05% B:0.03%)
4.	XG Roller+	21/15 8/6	eq: +1.087 (-0.056)
	Player: Opponent: 78.87% (G:51.26% B:8.35%) 21.13% (G:1.17% B:0.02%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

I played 21/15, 8/6.  Who knows why?  It doesn't make that much difference but wrong is wrong and let's try to see why.
Best is 24/16.  All the superior plays involve running the back checker.  And that's the key here.  My biggest liability is the man on the 24 point.  So that is the 6, and the 2 really doesn't matter much.  The lesson.  At this phase of the game, your goal is to bring all men home safe.  Start with the back most man when possible.

***********

Still later in the same game. 11 to play.

is dougie score: 0 pip: 157

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 73 score: 3 is Chutzpah

XGID=-dCBBBCB---Aa-a----bc-bb--:1:-1:1:11:3:0:3:0:10

to play 11

1.	XG Roller+	11/7	eq: +1.159
	Player: Opponent: 83.76% (G:49.24% B:5.18%) 16.24% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller+	11/10 7/6 7/5	eq: +1.062 (-0.097)
	Player: Opponent: 80.43% (G:46.67% B:5.82%) 19.57% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
3.	4-ply	11/8 6/5	eq: +1.112 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 81.90% (G:48.64% B:5.49%) 18.10% (G:0.35% B:0.02%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

I precleared 11/10, 7/6, 7/5.  I figured the bar was a liability so I might as well clear it now.

This is wrong for several reasons.  First, I give the 64 joker for free.  Of course the game is far from over if Dougie hits it, but why leave it?  Second, my play blots after 66 or 55 while 11/7 is totall safe next roll. 
Most important, 11/7 kills sixes next turn and hopes to force Dougie to crunch his board.  While this isn't too likely, it could happen and that's the concept.  Dougie is more likely to crunch than I am to leave the a shot on the bar point.  Sloppy play by me.

************

Later in the same game and Dougie had hit one blot and now is aiming at a second.  Cube action?

is dougie score: 0 pip: 93

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 45 score: 3 is Chutzpah

XGID=-aCC-A---a---------cbccb-A:1:-1:-1:00:3:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	82.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	82.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	17.10% (G:1.09% B:0.06%)	17.01% (G:1.21% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.647	+1.294
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.908 (-0.092)
Redouble/Take:	+1.182 (+0.182)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

I took a bad one here.

If things go 'well' for me, the best I can hope for is to have one man closed out.  Then I am roughly 70-30 underdog.  The one or possibly several free chances he has at a second blot just push his winning chances too high.  Drop.

***********
How do you play this 3rd roll 62?

is dougie score: 4 pip: 156

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 160 score: 3 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a----E-D---fD---c-e--A-A-:0:0:1:62:3:4:3:0:10

to play 62

1.	XG Roller+	22/16 13/11	eq: -0.073
	Player: Opponent: 48.30% (G:10.93% B:0.34%) 51.70% (G:12.09% B:0.47%)
2.	XG Roller+	24/22 13/7	eq: -0.095 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 46.18% (G:10.93% B:0.31%) 53.82% (G:8.94% B:0.29%)
3.	4-ply	24/16	eq: -0.095 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 47.53% (G:9.73% B:0.32%) 52.47% (G:11.60% B:0.38%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

I slotted the bar point and anchored up - 24/22, 13/7.  A reasonable play, but probably not correct.  24/16, 13/11 is the computer's play.  The race is close - if he misses me we each have escaped one man and the game is about even.  I am down in the race, so contact is good even though I put a blot in front of a heavy point.  If he hits, he has no board and the game continues.  13/11 starts to make offensive progress on my side of the board.  The 3 point anchor - while an improvement, isn't much of a prize.