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May 2, 2012

Replies to 21S

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 164
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 167
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-aa---E-C---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 50.14% (G:12.95% B:0.51%) 50.09% (G:13.01% B:0.53%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 49.86% (G:13.54% B:0.54%) 49.91% (G:13.61% B:0.53%)
  Cubeless Equities -0.003 -0.009
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.003
Double/Beaver:-0.758 (-0.755)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.003)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 30.0%
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02



Replies to 21S Error Key Tie Small Medium Blunder
Per XG opening Book < .005 < .02 < .06 > .06
General Notes
Always make a point
Hit two with 41 - generally right when opponent splits with an ace
Never two down, b/c leaves too many indirect shots.  Split even with 54.
Split with 62, a distraction play.  Run with 63, probably to duplicate 1's and 3's but Split is close.
22 Near, 33 Both and 44 Botha are the 'Default plays'.  There is nothing better here.
Reply Roll BEST 2nd 3rd
Point Making Rolls 31 P 8/5, 6/5            
                 
42 P 8/4, 6/4        
                 
53 P 8/3, 6/3 S 24/21, 13/8 0.0012    
                 
61 P 13/7, 8/7        
                 
Split or Slot 21 S 24/23, 1311 U 24/21 0.0012      
                 
41 K 6/2*/1* S 24/23, 13/9 0.0407    
                 
51 S 24/23, 13/8 R 24/18 0.0406    
                 
Split or Two Down 54 S 24/20, 13/8 R 24/15 0.0126      
  coming under the gun sucks, but everything else sucks more            
52 S 24/22, 13/8 D 13/11, 13/8 0.0223    
                 
43 Z 24/21, 13/9 X 24/21, 6/2* 0.0006    
                 
32 S 24/21, 13/11 U 24/22, 24/21 0.0163    
                 
6-X Rolls 65 R 24/13 S 24/18, 13/8 0.0277      
                 
64 R 24/14*        
                 
63 R 24/14 S 24/18, 13/10 0.0041    
  Run to duplicate 1's and 3's            
62 S 24/18, 13/11 R 24/16 0.0448    
                 
Doubles 11 e 24/22, 6/5(2)            
                 
22 N 13/11(2), 6/4(2) E 24/22(2), 6/4(2) 0.0371 U 24/20(2) 0.0372
                 
33 B 24/21(2), 13/10(2) E 24/21(2), 6/3(3) 0.0266    
                 
44 B 24/20(2), 13/9(2) E 24/20(2), 6/2*(20 0.0216 A 8/4(2), 6/2*(2) 0.0417
                 
55 A 8/3(2), 6/1*(2)        
                 
66 B 24/18(2), 13/7(2)        
                 

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