Dougie post 2

What follows are more errors from my money session with Dougie.

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Dougie is on roll.  Cube action?

is dougie score: 6 pip: 149

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 165 score: 4 is Chutzpah

XGID=-b-B-BC-a---bE--bA-cbc--AA:0:0:-1:00:4:6:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.15% (G:36.95% B:2.65%)	67.35% (G:39.25% B:2.83%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.85% (G:8.41% B:0.54%)	32.65% (G:8.39% B:0.58%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.649	+1.356
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.839 (-0.161)	±0.016 (+0.823..+0.855)
Double/Take:	+1.093 (+0.093)	±0.031 (+1.062..+1.124)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
515 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 46 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

I took a bad one here.  Board strength is equal and he still has two men on the ace point.  These are the positive aspects of the position.  But I am down the race, have one man on the bar and Dougie is shooting at a second blot.  Most likely I will have a second man on the bar next turn - desperately trying to anchor.  I do have legitimate winning chances in this position - 33% per the computer.  The problem is I get gammoned too often to justify a take,

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Centered cube.  How to play this tricky 22?

is dougie score: 8 pip: 153

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 150 score: 5 is Chutzpah

XGID=-B-a-aC-CA--eC---bBbbbA---:0:0:1:22:5:8:3:0:10

to play 22

1.	XG Roller++	13/11(2) 13/9	eq: +0.035
	Player: Opponent: 50.45% (G:15.58% B:0.45%) 49.55% (G:13.40% B:0.53%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/7 9/7	eq: -0.075 (-0.110)
	Player: Opponent: 48.05% (G:12.02% B:0.22%) 51.95% (G:13.02% B:0.52%)
3.	XG Roller++	18/16(2) 13/9	eq: -0.084 (-0.119)
	Player: Opponent: 48.65% (G:12.07% B:0.38%) 51.35% (G:15.73% B:0.52%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

I advanced my back anchor and made the 9 point, 11/16(2), 13/9.  I must have figured up in the race, race.  But the race is close.

Better was 13/9, 13/11(2).  Probably this move is superior because it makes a better structure and gives me more flexibility in playing future rolls.  Another factor may be that I am abandoning my back man a bit.  For example, if he gets attacked I can't connect with a 7 to the bar point (once I advance it to the 9 point). 

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I just sent a slightly early cube and now have another 22 to play.

is dougie score: 8 pip: 151

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 138 score: 5 is Chutzpah

XGID=aB-a-BB-BB--dB--Bb-cbbA---:1:-1:1:22:5:8:3:0:10

to play 22

1.	XG Roller++	13/11 9/7 5/3*(2)	eq: +0.256
	Player: Opponent: 59.13% (G:36.13% B:0.46%) 40.87% (G:14.31% B:1.19%)
2.	XG Roller++	9/7 8/6 5/3*(2)	eq: +0.234 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 58.62% (G:35.23% B:0.42%) 41.38% (G:14.31% B:0.94%)
3.	XG Roller++	13/11 8/6 5/3*(2)	eq: +0.234 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 58.94% (G:33.78% B:0.45%) 41.06% (G:13.33% B:0.93%)
4.	XG Roller++	13/9 5/3*(2)	eq: +0.219 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 59.70% (G:28.29% B:0.39%) 40.30% (G:11.41% B:0.50%)
5.	XG Roller+	13/11(2) 5/3*(2)	eq: +0.282 (+0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 61.00% (G:32.05% B:0.41%) 39.00% (G:11.38% B:0.58%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

I mistakenly made the 4th point in my board, 8/4(2).  This does not appear amongst the top 5 plays and is a .06 error.   It is a reasonable play, winning 60% with 26% Gammons.
All the better pays involve switching.  Switching captures more gammons.  The most accurate switch, 13/11(2), 5/3(2)*, brings more ammo to remake the 5 point - and also wins more plain games too at 61%.

I forgot one of my own rules - which is always switch!!

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Next I have turned the cube and have a 42 to play.

is dougie score: 10 pip: 163

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 130 score: 7 is Chutzpah

XGID=-baB-BD-B--AbC-a-c-d-b--A-:1:-1:1:42:7:10:3:0:10

to play 42

1.	XG Roller++	8/4 6/4	eq: +0.515
	Player: Opponent: 69.13% (G:28.93% B:2.78%) 30.87% (G:7.16% B:0.36%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/9 11/9	eq: +0.418 (-0.097)
	Player: Opponent: 66.90% (G:24.82% B:2.11%) 33.10% (G:6.80% B:0.29%)
3.	XG Roller++	11/5	eq: +0.406 (-0.109)
	Player: Opponent: 66.31% (G:24.71% B:2.13%) 33.69% (G:6.61% B:0.25%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

I made what I thought was a constructive play with little risk - 13/9, 11/9. 

I don't understand why making the 4 point is best.  The 4 point is obviously desirable, so it is a huge improvement if I get away with it. 6's plus 51 and 54 hit, so 15 hits and 21 misses.  If he does hit I might hit back from the bar which lessens the danger somewhat.  And even if Dougie does hit and I don't hit back I still have the best 4 point board with him having 2 men stuck on the ace point.  Dougie remains under pressure.
Perhaps the principle is when the cube is turned play big to try and shorten the game.  The longer the game goes on, the better for the opponent and the more valuable cube ownership is for him.
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Later in the same game.  A technical play. 61.  What is the best ace?

is dougie score: 10 pip: 129

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 63 score: 7 is Chutzpah

XGID=-dBCCDC------------b-bbbc-:1:-1:1:61:7:10:3:0:10

to play 61

1.	XG Roller++	6/Off 5/4	eq: +1.505
	Player: Opponent: 94.56% (G:57.46% B:5.82%) 5.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller++	6/Off 3/2	eq: +1.474 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 93.90% (G:56.17% B:5.62%) 6.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.	XG Roller++	6/Off 4/3	eq: +1.467 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 93.88% (G:55.76% B:5.36%) 6.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

I played 6/off, 3/2 - keeping even on the back most points.  The principle I was using was 'keep even on the back points.'

However correct was 6/off, 5/4.  The correct principle appears to be 'never bury spare checkers on the deuce point.'

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How do you play this 3rd roll 53?

is dougie score: 10 pip: 157

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 163 score: 9 is Chutzpah

XGID=-b----E-D---eD---b-d---bAA:0:0:1:53:9:10:3:0:10

to play 53

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 13/8	eq: -0.077
	Player: Opponent: 48.48% (G:12.80% B:0.59%) 51.52% (G:16.20% B:0.53%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/20 24/21	eq: -0.109 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 48.19% (G:12.51% B:0.69%) 51.81% (G:17.08% B:0.56%)
3.	XG Roller++	Bar/20 13/10	eq: -0.116 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 47.80% (G:12.87% B:0.69%) 52.20% (G:17.12% B:0.81%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

This seems to come up frequently.  Hopefully I will get it right next time.

I went Bar/20, 13/10 just because the other play looks so darn ugly.  But this play invites an attack on the 5 point while I am outboarded as well exposes a 3rd blot.
In this case, ugly is best.  Bar/22, 13/8.  I think Simbog's principle 'Defence Defence' applies here.

We are on the defensive so a defesive play is called for here.  Stay back out of harm's way while hoping to make an anchor next time. 

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61.  Hit or make a point?

is dougie score: 10 pip: 129

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 156 score: 9 is Chutzpah

XGID=-b----E-D-B-bB--aa-cb-bbB-:0:0:1:61:9:10:3:0:10

to play 61

1.	XG Roller+	24/17*	eq: -0.518
	Player: Opponent: 40.51% (G:9.99% B:0.64%) 59.49% (G:29.61% B:1.13%)
2.	XG Roller+	13/7 8/7	eq: -0.550 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 39.49% (G:9.10% B:0.51%) 60.51% (G:24.13% B:2.22%)
3.	1-ply	8/2 6/5	eq: -1.000 (-0.482)
	Player: Opponent: 32.31% (G:6.49% B:0.33%) 67.69% (G:33.76% B:4.44%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

I made the bar point 13/7, 8/7.  Better was to abandon the anchor and hit with 24/17*.

As a variation, I moved a spare from the 8 point to the midpoint.  Then, it is correct to not hit and instead make the bar point.
My conclusion  -- since I am leaving a shot anyway I might as well hit and hope for the best.

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I just doubled.  How to play 51?

is dougie score: 11 pip: 154

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 147 score: 9 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a--B-CaCAB-dB---bbe-B----:1:-1:1:51:9:11:3:0:10

to play 51

1.	XG Roller+	8/7* 6/1*	eq: +0.243
	Player: Opponent: 60.86% (G:24.43% B:0.59%) 39.14% (G:8.04% B:0.31%)
2.	XG Roller+	9/4 8/7*	eq: +0.154 (-0.088)
	Player: Opponent: 58.83% (G:19.90% B:0.74%) 41.17% (G:7.83% B:0.30%)
3.	3-ply	21/16 8/7*	eq: +0.154 (-0.089)
	Player: Opponent: 60.22% (G:18.75% B:0.97%) 39.78% (G:10.19% B:0.58%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

I hit and lifted, 9/4, 8/7.  This 'safe' play actually leaves more shots than the big and correct play 8/7*, 6/1*.

I think Robertie's principle 'hitting two checkers is often the best way to handle an awkward roll' applies here.  Another principle may be Simborg's 'offense offense.  I have 11 checkers in the offensive zone and this could turn into a powerful attack should Dougie throw one bad roll.  I didn't double to play a wimpy hit and lift did I?  Well, actually, I did but I shouldn't have!!

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Later in the same game and I have a 52 to move.

is dougie score: 11 pip: 130

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 129 score: 9 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a--CBCAB--AbA---ebd-B-a--:1:-1:1:52:9:11:3:0:10

to play 52

1.	XG Roller++	7/5 6/1*	eq: +0.316
	Player: Opponent: 62.87% (G:26.71% B:0.42%) 37.13% (G:7.58% B:0.31%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/11 6/1*	eq: +0.310 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 62.82% (G:25.52% B:0.34%) 37.18% (G:6.83% B:0.25%)
3.	XG Roller++	11/9 6/1*	eq: +0.292 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 62.34% (G:26.74% B:0.49%) 37.66% (G:8.44% B:0.35%)
4.	XG Roller++	7/2 4/2	eq: +0.208 (-0.108)
	Player: Opponent: 60.27% (G:21.03% B:0.34%) 39.73% (G:6.19% B:0.23%)
5.	3-ply	8/1*	eq: +0.220 (-0.096)
	Player: Opponent: 59.92% (G:25.56% B:0.46%) 40.08% (G:9.16% B:0.41%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

I quietly made the 2 point, 7/2, 4/2.  This is a huge mistake.  Even though he has a blot, I can't afford to give a free roll to hit an ace or an escaping six. 

Blitz mode and attack seem to be the priorities here.  I have 11 1/2 men against one in the offensive zone - this is where I should want to fight.  Note how all the top plays involve hitting off the ace point - a recurring weakness of mine is reluctantance to hit loose on the ace point.

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Here is a variation.  Even with no blot on the midpoint and even with no homeboard blot it is still a toss up between hitting loose and making the 4th point in the board.  Hit!!

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 126

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 131 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a--CBCAB---bB---ebc-B-b--:1:-1:1:52:0:0:3:0:10

to play 52

1.	XG Roller++	7/5 6/1*	eq: +0.181
	Player: Opponent: 59.46% (G:21.25% B:0.28%) 40.54% (G:7.37% B:0.26%)
2.	XG Roller++	7/2 4/2	eq: +0.179 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 59.90% (G:18.23% B:0.24%) 40.10% (G:5.85% B:0.17%)
3.	4-ply	13/11 6/1*	eq: +0.135 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 58.64% (G:20.66% B:0.26%) 41.36% (G:9.47% B:0.34%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02