Crash 3/5 Frank #1

I played Frank twice at our weekly tournament dated March 5.  Frank showed his class in this match, posting a 1.8 PR!!  I have selected some of my errors from the first match below.  These are a series of checker play errors from a holding game and also from a backgame.

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In the first position I trail 3 away 6 away and have 44 to play.

is Frank score: 4 pip: 121

7 point match

pip: 134 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=---B-BCbD---bB----bdcBb---:1:-1:1:44:1:4:0:7:10

to play 44

1.	XG Roller++	21/17(2) 13/9(2)	eq: -0.026
	Player: Opponent: 51.31% (G:3.68% B:0.09%) 48.69% (G:3.08% B:0.08%)
2.	XG Roller++	21/13(2)	eq: -0.043 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 51.64% (G:0.95% B:0.02%) 48.36% (G:0.99% B:0.01%)
3.	XG Roller++	21/17(2) 8/4(2)	eq: -0.048 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 49.91% (G:5.24% B:0.12%) 50.09% (G:5.76% B:0.07%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I grabbed my back checkers and immediately ran to the midpoint.  Then I started thinking...I am sort of behind in the race - after the roll I will be up on 3 but it will be Frank's turn.  Maybe racing isn't the best gameplan here.  So I moved 21/17(2) and thought about the other fours.  8/4(2) making the board is very tempting.  This gives me a strong  board and I figured with his next moves he will either crash his board or run and leave me a shot.  This is the move I played but it is wrong and instructively so.

I get partial credit by jumping out to the 17 point but the other half of the play should have been 13/9.  I exert plenty of pressure on Frank's position from the outfield but - and this is the key - I maintain timing to play on my side of the board.  With six checkers on my 8 and 9 points I should be able to outwait Frank (barring a double from his of course).  Being aware of the race and gameplan is a good thing.  Even though I got this one wrong, at least I didn't just run to the midpoint and pick up my dice! 

******

Very next roll of the same game.  I trail 3 away 6 away and have 64 to play.

is Frank score: 4 pip: 114

7 point match

pip: 118 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=---BBBCbB---bB---Badbab-a-:1:-1:1:64:1:4:0:7:10

to play 64

1.	XG Roller+	17/13 17/11	eq: +0.066
	Player: Opponent: 56.06% (G:2.46% B:0.08%) 43.94% (G:1.81% B:0.02%)
2.	XG Roller+	8/2 6/2	eq: +0.018 (-0.048)
	Player: Opponent: 51.84% (G:7.79% B:0.20%) 48.16% (G:7.29% B:0.10%)
3.	4-ply	13/3	eq: +0.028 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 52.03% (G:8.10% B:0.29%) 47.97% (G:6.94% B:0.09%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the board with 8/2,6/2.  Not terrible, but once again I failed to grasp the proper gameplan and nor recognize the tactical opportunites present in the position.

Compared to the prior roll I have gained 3 pips.  So now I will be up 6 pips after the roll.  With this modest racing lead I should consider breaking contact into a straight race.  Indeed XG shows 17/13, 17/11 as the best play.  My timing will now likely run out before Frank's does.  So in a sense this is a Pay Now Pay Later decision.  And Frank's board is double blotted so I might as well leave the shot now.  After all I am likely to leave a shot later anyway when Frank's board will have improved.  Of course the paynow play doesn't just win when it works but is most logical given gameplan and tactical configuation of the given position.

So in the first position, contact favored me.  Now contact favors him.  ABC or 'Always be Counting' the race sounds like a new mantra for me!!

*******
Still later in the same game.  I trail 3 away 6 away and have 22 to play.

is Frank score: 4 pip: 100

7 point match

pip: 102 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=--CBBBBb----bB---B-bbabbb-:1:-1:1:22:1:4:0:7:10

to play 22

1.	XG Roller++	13/9(2)	eq: +0.179
	Player: Opponent: 58.39% (G:8.11% B:0.13%) 41.61% (G:3.23% B:0.07%)
2.	XG Roller++	17/13(2)	eq: +0.085 (-0.093)
	Player: Opponent: 56.99% (G:1.76% B:0.03%) 43.01% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)
3.	4-ply	17/15(2) 13/11(2)	eq: +0.101 (-0.078)
	Player: Opponent: 56.31% (G:5.38% B:0.13%) 43.69% (G:2.88% B:0.02%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I felt like an idiot for staying back earlier (playing for contact) and happily and quickly moved to the midpoint, 17/13(2).  Frank even quipped that the 'dice had bailed me out.'  I'm not sure if he was serious or goading me into the play. At any rate, I once again made the wrong play. 

I do have a slight race lead which argues for running.  I am a 57-43 favorite after this play.  Yet this play is still a mistake.  Had I paused to notice how stripped out Frank's position was, I might have found the correct play 13/9(2).  Barring a double, Frank will either be leaving me a direct shot (good for me) or he will crashing his board (also good for me).  Even if rolls small (good for him) or a double (also good for him) I still have those spares from the 9 point to play (good for me!).
These holding games should be simple but there is plenty of room for error!!  Take your time.

*********

Next I trail 6 away Crawford and have 64 to play.

is Frank score: 6 pip: 156

7 point match Crawford

pip: 163 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=-a--aBD-B---dE--ab-db---B-:0:0:1:64:1:6:1:7:10

to play 64

1.	XG Roller++	24/14	eq: +0.029
	Player: Opponent: 45.35% (G:9.62% B:0.36%) 54.65% (G:15.11% B:0.60%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/18 8/4*	eq: +0.025 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 43.44% (G:12.35% B:0.63%) 56.56% (G:22.63% B:1.84%)
3.	XG Roller++	24/18 13/9	eq: -0.004 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 42.96% (G:10.77% B:0.54%) 57.04% (G:19.26% B:1.15%)
4.	XG Roller++	13/7 8/4*	eq: -0.007 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 41.88% (G:12.29% B:0.56%) 58.12% (G:22.75% B:2.54%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played 13/7, 8/4*.  While this isn't a whopper I thought it worthwhile to investigate further.  This is an error I probably wouldn't have made a year ago and seems to be a case of 'a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.'  My mindset was this is a gammon-go score so go balls to the wall for the attack.  Hence tap that ass and down is an automatic play for me.  Yet it's wrong. 

The computer thinks I need to get that back checker moving.  24/4 Run is best.  24/18, 8/4* 2nd and 24/18, 13/9 3rd.  I'm not really sure what's going on here.  Perhaps the attack is wrong simply because it is unlikely to work (I leave tons of return shots) and even when it does work I don't gammon too much anyway.  Frank has the 5 point after all, which is always big in minimizing gammons.

So perhaps 24/14 run is best by default.  You gotta leave a shot so might as well run and play with one blot and possibly escape a guy.

24/18, 8/4*  creates some chaos but gives some fallback to hit back or make the bar should my attack fail.

24/18, 13/9 leads with the chin but at least unstacks the midpoint.

**********

Later in the same game and I have 62 to play.

is Frank score: 6 pip: 133

7 point match Crawford

pip: 219 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=---a-CB-----cCaAab-cbbBBB-:0:0:1:62:1:6:1:7:10

to play 62

1.	XG Roller++	24/18 15/13	eq: -0.141
	Player: Opponent: 39.58% (G:5.35% B:0.28%) 60.42% (G:35.27% B:3.46%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/18 5/3*	eq: -0.167 (-0.026)
	Player: Opponent: 38.61% (G:4.83% B:0.23%) 61.39% (G:37.68% B:5.12%)
3.	XG Roller++	24/16*	eq: -0.173 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 37.52% (G:6.02% B:0.29%) 62.48% (G:34.05% B:3.74%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Let's first just say that these 'super backgames' are really difficult to play. 
I moved 24/16*/14*.  My logic was that I could take a stab at winning going forward while keeping the backgame as a fallback plan. 

The computer likes 24/18, 15/13 not hitting anything.  I am not confident in my assessments but here is my current thinking.  What strikes me is that the computer is leaving the back anchor, not the front anchor.  Timing is always key in a backgame.  24/18 hopes to possibly make Frank's barpoint, giving me an important lifeline to keep the timing going.  I also keep the 3-point.  Should I get hit (likely) I keeping the 3 point is important.  From here I have 4's and 6's to pop out.  By jumping out Frank gets to fight for 3 points to prime me in.  If he wins any of the 9, bar or 3 points then I am worse off than now.  It appears by leaving the 3 point I give him extra chances to attack on the 3 point (without risking anything btw) and should he win the 9 or the bar it is relatively worse for me holding 1-2 points than holding 2-3 points.

So all in all my timing is decent for a 2 point backgame but probably not a 3 point super backgame.  23 is the best backgame in this position.  I should just jump out and not hit and trust my timing to hold.

Note the alternative plays try to win going forward but keep the 2-3 points as fallbacks.   I would describe them as better interpretation and implemenation of my 'try to win going forward' plan. 

24/18, 5/3* puts my only bad checker on the 5-point into the game.

24/16* also hits a checker and creates more chaos in the outfield while there is little downside for me.


*************

Same game.  I trail 6 away Crawford and have 31 to play.  Hit or don't hit?

is Frank score: 6 pip: 153

7 point match Crawford

pip: 203 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=-a-a-CB--a-AcCA--b-cbbCB--:0:0:1:31:1:6:1:7:10

to play 31

1.	XG Roller++	14/11 5/4	eq: -0.155
	Player: Opponent: 38.15% (G:6.47% B:0.29%) 61.85% (G:30.76% B:2.65%)
2.	XG Roller++	14/13 11/8	eq: -0.194 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 36.38% (G:6.16% B:0.29%) 63.62% (G:30.54% B:2.46%)
3.	XG Roller++	13/9*	eq: -0.202 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 35.72% (G:6.62% B:0.32%) 64.28% (G:34.10% B:3.38%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

My mindset was sill to try and win going forward - with the backgame to fall back on.  This is the wrong approach, and really even the wrong question.  Timing seems to be key question -  Do I want to hit or not hit?  And also, Do I want to get hit or not get hit?

I think the answer here is that winning going forward is not too likely.  And my timing is shaky - 50 pips really isn't enough.  Based on timing considerations alone - hitting is out of the question.  so 5/4 is the ace activating this guy and then 14/11 is the best 3 - making a point and cleaning up a blot.

*********

Another backgame play.  I still trail 6 away Crawford and have 33 to play.

is Frank score: 6 pip: 115

7 point match Crawford

pip: 184 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=----aCCB-a-B---a-bcbbbBBaA:0:0:1:33:1:6:1:7:10

to play 33

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 11/8(2) 6/3	eq: -0.270
	Player: Opponent: 33.52% (G:4.72% B:0.20%) 66.48% (G:29.24% B:1.74%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 7/4*(2) 6/3	eq: -0.279 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 32.40% (G:5.74% B:0.28%) 67.60% (G:32.91% B:2.32%)
3.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 11/8(2) 5/2	eq: -0.292 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 32.67% (G:4.28% B:0.17%) 67.33% (G:30.48% B:1.96%)
4.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 11/8 7/4*(2)	eq: -0.325 (-0.055)
	Player: Opponent: 30.43% (G:5.27% B:0.25%) 69.57% (G:33.54% B:2.35%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

My backgame is in full crisis mode.  I am very close to being completely primed in and cracking.
I played Bar/22, 11/8, 7/4*(2) which seems like an 'automatic' play.  Automatic but wrong. 
Approaching this fresh, through the prism of timing - I now think that not hitting should be 'automatic.'  My simplistic approach is to ask 'Do I want him to play or not play?'  I definitely want him to move here and pray my timing holds up.  Hitting him doesn't help at all.  Winning going forward is a pipe dream now.  I give Frank no bad rolls and several jokers such as dancing.  Once again, my takeaway (though not sure I am right) is I need Frank to play his pips and hope he rolls big and me small as my best chance to win from here.

Hence the best play is Bar/22, 11/8(2), 6/3.  This allows Frank to play and gives him 44 as a horror roll.
***********

One last backgame checker play from the same game.  I trail 6 away crawford and have 65 to play.

is Frank score: 6 pip: 108

7 point match Crawford

pip: 164 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=----BCCaA--A-aAa-bcbbbBBa-:0:0:1:65:1:6:1:7:10

to play 65

1.	XG Roller++	14/3	eq: -0.413
	Player: Opponent: 27.47% (G:2.96% B:0.08%) 72.53% (G:22.67% B:1.06%)
2.	XG Roller++	14/9 8/2	eq: -0.424 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 27.02% (G:2.81% B:0.08%) 72.98% (G:23.65% B:1.16%)
3.	XG Roller++	11/5 8/3	eq: -0.432 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 26.65% (G:2.78% B:0.07%) 73.35% (G:24.04% B:1.12%)
4.	XG Roller++	14/8 11/6	eq: -0.442 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 26.24% (G:2.61% B:0.06%) 73.76% (G:21.62% B:0.87%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played the wimpy 14/8, 11/6.  Not terrible but on principle I would like to get hit here.  So 14/3 is entirely logical.  Put my checker on the next best available point and who cares if he hits?  He probably won't but what's the downisde?