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March 21, 2012

Replies to 62S

I continue to look at replies to specific rolls.  The next several posts will look at replies to 6X rolls - meaning split to the 18 point and down from the midpoint on 62, 63, or 64.

Replies to 62S Error Key Tie Small Medium Blunder
Per XG opening Book < .005 < .02 < .06 > .06
General Notes
Most of these are easy - referencing rules from the Opening Reply project.
Generally hit with 42 and point with 31
Hit and Down if you hit with and ace.  Hit and split if you hit with a six.
Doubles are obvious.  Near with 11 and 22, Point with 33, Up & Down with 44, Attack with 55, and 6's are practically forced
Fives.  Point with 53. Hit with 51 (Kill is an overplay).  Hit and Split with 52 and 54 - you need to distract opponent by taking away half roll
Reverse split with 43.  Don't come under the gun and duplicate opponent's Twos
32 is interesting.  UP and WILD are tied.  Perhaps you focus on defensive or offensive progress while opponent can't do everything next roll.
Reply Roll BEST 2nd 3rd 4th
Point Making Rolls 31 P 8/5, 6/5 X 24/21, 8/7* 0.0303            
                       
42 H 13/7* P 8/4, 6/4 0.0282      
                       
53 P 8/3, 6/3 S 24/21, 13/8 0.0113 X 24/21, 6/1* 0.0299  
      3 pt doesn't do much, splitting is OK wrong concept but not terrible      
61 P 13/7*, 8/7          
                       
Split or Slot 21 H 13/11, 8/7* X 24/22, 8/7* 0.0338            
                       
41 H 13/9, 8/7* X 24/20, 8/7* 0.0061      
                       
51 H 13/7* K 8/7*, 6/1* 0.05      
                       
Split or Two Down 54 X 24/20, 6/1* S 24/20, 13/8 0.0318            
                       
52 X 24/22, 6/1* S 24/22, 13/8 0.0081      
      not that wrong              
43 Z 24/21, 13/9 U 24/20, 24/21 0.0102 S 24/20, 13/10 0.0483  
            don't come under the gun      
32 U 24/21, 24/22 W 24/21, 6/4 0.0049 S 24/21, 13/11 0.0121 Z 24/20, 13/10  
                       
6-X Rolls 65 K 13/7*, 6/1* D 13/8, 13/7* 0.0557            
                       
64 H 24/14*          
                       
63 X 24/21, 13/7* H 13/10, 13/78 0.0499      
                       
62 X 24/22, 13/7* H 13/11, 13/7* 0.0112      
                       
Doubles 11 N 8/7*(2), 6/5(2)                  
                       
22 N 13/11(2), 6/4(2) U 24/20(2) 0.0406 B 24/22(2), 6/4(2) 0.0444  
                       
33 P 13/7*(2) n1 13/7*, 8/5(2) 0.0152 n2 13/7*, 6/3(2) 0.0257  
  Make a point, start a prime, no blots not bad, but P is better            
44 B 24/20(2), 13/9(2)          
                       
55 A 8/3(2), 6/1*(2)          
                       
66 O 24/18(2), 13/7(2)          
                       

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