Crash 3/5 - Walt

Below are selected errors from my match against Walt from the weekly Crash Landing tournament dated March 5.

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7 away 7 away.  Cube Action before the roll?  Then how to play 53?

is Walt score: 0 pip: 156

7 point match

pip: 143 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-a-b-BC-CB--bC---Bddb-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71.88% (G:12.68% B:0.45%)	72.02% (G:12.41% B:0.45%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28.12% (G:5.11% B:0.14%)	27.98% (G:5.06% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.518	+1.055
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.828 (-0.028)
Double/Take:	+0.856
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.144)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed a small but clear double here.  I have a strong position already so I guess the question is how often do I lose the market on the next exchange?  61 42 plus 66 44 33 22 are very good, as is 64 followed by miss.  Also any roll where I volunteer a shot on the back anchor and he misses would be game over.  So I have some threats.

Also important - Even if things go immediately sour for me, Walt is one hell of a long way from a recube.  So if I roll great Walt is screwed and even my bad rolls play OK and even if I leave an immediate shot and get hit the game is far from over.  All this adds up to a cube.

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is Walt score: 0 pip: 156

7 point match

pip: 143 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-a-b-BC-CB--bC---Bddb-----:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:7:10

to play 53

1.	XG Roller+	17/9	eq: +0.859
	Player: Opponent: 71.88% (G:13.01% B:0.46%) 28.12% (G:5.27% B:0.13%)
2.	XG Roller+	13/5	eq: +0.747 (-0.111)
	Player: Opponent: 69.91% (G:12.06% B:0.44%) 30.09% (G:5.51% B:0.15%)
3.	2-ply	13/10 6/1*	eq: +0.574 (-0.285)
	Player: Opponent: 65.98% (G:13.01% B:0.42%) 34.02% (G:7.94% B:0.23%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

So I held the cube and then rolled 53.  I mistakenly played the whopper 13/5.  Better was to 'pay now' with 17/9.  Why?

Well first off my man goes to a good spot.  From the 9 point I will have builders on the midpoint, 9 and 8 points aiming at the bar, and also builders on the 9,8 and 6 points aiming at the 4 point. 

In contrast, my play 13/5 misplaces a spare too deep.  I would rather make the bar than the 4 point if I have a choice.  It also leaves me stripped on the midpoint and 17 points.

Also important is Walt's stripped midpoint.  Walt has 5's to hit - but if he misses it is game over.  And when Walt is 'lucky' and does hit, it isn't necessarily a prize either.  Most of his hitting 5's leave several return shots from the bar and/or completely give up outfield control. 

Perhaps most important is that Walt only has a 2 point board - not too menacing.  Most likely I will reenter immediately if hit, which seems to make a big difference.  See variants below. 
...Variants ...

(1) Move Walt's spare from bar to midpoint. 
Still a correct but borderline Double / Take
Still correct to 'pay now' with 17/9
(2) Move Walt's spares from 8 point and 7 point to make his 4 point.
Small No Double / Take
The wimpy 13/5 is now correct

(3) Keep position the same but give me 43 or 51 to play.
Still correct to pay now in each case.
43.  Play 17/13, 17/14
51.  Play 17/11

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I lead Walt 3 away 7 away, own the cube and have 62 to play.

is Walt score: 0 pip: 87

7 point match

pip: 138 score: 4 is Bill

XGID=-B-aBCC------A--A-bccdC-b-:1:1:1:62:4:0:0:7:10

to play 62

1.	XG Roller++	22/14	eq: -0.386
	Player: Opponent: 38.19% (G:2.67% B:0.04%) 61.81% (G:18.35% B:0.41%)
2.	XG Roller++	22/16 6/4	eq: -0.441 (-0.055)
	Player: Opponent: 33.93% (G:2.37% B:0.03%) 66.07% (G:15.29% B:0.26%)
3.	4-ply	22/16 5/3*	eq: -0.384 (+0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 40.56% (G:3.32% B:0.04%) 59.44% (G:22.92% B:0.45%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Containment game.  The best way to win must be to spread out my guys with 22/14.  But what about the gammons?  I got a case of gammonphobia and played the cautious 22/16, 6/4. 

In this case the gammons are mostly an illusion.  The manly play wins about 4% more often and gets gammoned about 3% more.  Walt's gammon value is only marginally higher than for money so this still a good ratio.

... Variant ...

(1) Move Walt's spares from 4 point to close the 2 point.  ie, a 5-point board.
It's still right to play big according to XG, even against the 5 point board.  This result surprises me - going to have to ponder this one for a while.