Crash 3/7 Emil

I recorded my matched at the Crash Landing from Monday.  Below are errors from my match against Emil.

***********
First game of 7 point match.  and I have 66 to play.

is Emil score: 0 pip: 98

7 point match

pip: 89 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-BABBbB-CB-------Abbbcc-a-:0:0:1:66:0:0:0:7:10

to play 66

1.	XG Roller++	17/11 9/3(2) 8/2	eq: +0.184
	Player: Opponent: 55.05% (G:2.57% B:0.03%) 44.95% (G:3.51% B:0.10%)
2.	XG Roller++	9/3(2) 8/2(2)	eq: +0.108 (-0.076)
	Player: Opponent: 50.41% (G:3.72% B:0.04%) 49.59% (G:9.22% B:0.28%)
3.	4-ply	17/11 8/2(3)	eq: +0.151 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 52.54% (G:2.67% B:0.03%) 47.46% (G:4.40% B:0.11%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 9/3(2), 8/2(2) thinking this gave the least shots and also duplicated his 3's to hit and cover.  If missed I double next time.

Better was 17/11, 9/3(2), 8/2.  This leaves only 1 more shot but plays with only 1 blot.  I think the biggest reason is the cube.  Assuming Emil misses the shot - after my play, the position is double / take while after the computers play it is double / pass.  So my play only gets a double-in when it works while the computers play gets a double-out. 

************

Next game I lead 6 away 7 away and have 43 to play.

is Emil score: 0 pip: 143

7 point match

pip: 132 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=--aC--E-BA-adB---c-d-Bb---:0:0:1:43:1:0:0:7:10

to play 43

1.	XG Roller++	9/5 8/5	eq: +0.224
	Player: Opponent: 52.70% (G:17.88% B:0.25%) 47.30% (G:6.70% B:0.26%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/10 13/9	eq: +0.164 (-0.060)
	Player: Opponent: 52.66% (G:12.99% B:0.17%) 47.34% (G:5.38% B:0.20%)
3.	XG Roller++	9/2*	eq: +0.156 (-0.067)
	Player: Opponent: 51.90% (G:16.84% B:0.27%) 48.10% (G:8.48% B:0.33%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the quiet play 13/10, 13/9 while the correct play is to make the 5-point.

I think the default position should be 'always make the 5 point unless there is a damn good reason not to.'

Here making the 5-point leaves a direct shot (15 total shots) while I am up in the race and don't rally want to get hit. 

On the other hand, the wimpy play leaves 4 shots (53, 26) but that's not the end of the story.  I need to add 7 escaping rolls (36, 54, 56, 55) so the 'wimpy play' gives him 11 really good rolls.  So the ''safe play' saves only 4 rolls.

Let's also consider Magriel's Safe vs Bold criteria.  I have an anchor and two back to 1 man back which suggets an attacking pay.  But I am up in the race which suggests a safe play.  This seems mixed.

Another rule of thumb says prime two checkers and attack one which suggests attack.  Mochy's structure analysis also suggests attack.  This is the mental key for me.  I am not in a position to prime here.  I am stacked and gapped and lack spares.  In short I am unlikely to prime.  Also even though up in the race I am not in a position to race.  My guys on the 4 anchor are stuck until I roll a double or until they can camoe out safely - like after I work Emil over a bit with an attack.  So by making the 5-point I create a threatening board and am poised to attack next turn.  I won't like it if I get hit but if I do then the game simply continues.

One more thing to note is the gammon differential.  Both plays win about the same % but making the 5- point wins more gammons.  Perhaps this is the real reason the 5-point is best though I don't tend to think that way.

*********
Next I lead 2 away 7 away and have 61 to play.

is Emil score: 0 pip: 129

7 point match

pip: 113 score: 5 is Bill

XGID=--BBacCCB----B--b--b-cAbb-:0:0:1:61:5:0:0:7:10

to play 61

1.	XG Roller+	7/1 2/1	eq: +0.129
	Player: Opponent: 58.23% (G:16.70% B:0.50%) 41.77% (G:12.21% B:0.20%)
2.	XG Roller+	8/7 8/2	eq: +0.032 (-0.098)
	Player: Opponent: 55.03% (G:16.19% B:0.64%) 44.97% (G:11.86% B:0.12%)
3.	2-ply	7/1 3/2	eq: -0.144 (-0.273)
	Player: Opponent: 51.96% (G:10.18% B:0.22%) 48.04% (G:13.39% B:0.24%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I incorrectly cleared the 8 point.  My thinking was I would be attacked next turn and did not want a blot on the ace point in case I hit back.  Also, I figured the 8 point wasn't worth much and I would create some spares to play by piling up on the 7 point.

Much better was 7/1, 2/1.  I guess my baby prime is actually an asset and I shouldn't give it up.  Specifically, it seems to make some of his 4's decent rolls like 41 and 43 which would be duds if I kept the 8 point.

************
I lead 5 away post-crawford and already hold the cube.  I have a 21 to play.

is Emil score: 2 pip: 94

7 point match

pip: 136 score: 6 is Bill

XGID=-a--BBCCA-A--A----cdbbabB-:1:1:1:21:6:2:0:7:10

to play 21

1.	XG Roller++	13/12 10/8	eq: -0.139
	Player: Opponent: 51.79% (G:8.71% B:0.29%) 48.21% (G:13.47% B:0.86%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/22* 8/7	eq: -0.274 (-0.135)
	Player: Opponent: 52.63% (G:15.02% B:0.80%) 47.37% (G:24.24% B:1.93%)
3.	4-ply	10/8 6/5	eq: -0.128 (+0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 52.89% (G:8.49% B:0.24%) 47.11% (G:14.05% B:1.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the monster blunder 24/22*, 8/7.  I thought this gave me the most chances to win and that the gammons weren't too bad. 

What a misjudgment!!  13/12, 10/8 is by far the way to go.  It wins a smidgen less but gets gammoned only about 1/2 as often.  Oops!  Even though I have 2 back to 1 back, and even though his 6's are killed, counterpriming is a promising way to win.  I got a solid 5 prime already built and some spares to play. 

**********
I lead 3 away post-crawford and hold a 2 cube.  I just rolled a brick - 43.  How to play it?

is Emil score: 4 pip: 149

7 point match

pip: 163 score: 6 is Bill

XGID=--a---EaD---bCb--bbeB-A---:1:1:1:43:6:4:0:7:10

to play 43

1.	XG Roller++	13/6	eq: -0.341
	Player: Opponent: 41.09% (G:8.91% B:0.26%) 58.91% (G:8.14% B:0.26%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/5 8/4	eq: -0.463 (-0.122)
	Player: Opponent: 40.75% (G:9.64% B:0.34%) 59.25% (G:13.88% B:0.45%)
3.	XG Roller+	13/10 6/2*	eq: -0.427 (-0.086)
	Player: Opponent: 40.29% (G:8.92% B:0.29%) 59.71% (G:11.63% B:0.35%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I jumped off the bridge, playing 13/10, 6/2*.  This play really has nothing going for it.  I don't really even want to make the 2 point.  I give him an extra blot to shoot at on the 10 point and I strip the midpoint to boot.  I was counting on the fact that I already had an anchor, combined with Emil having no board, could afford me the liberty to play boldly here.

Apparently this is just not the case.  The computer prefers the quiet and lame looking 13/6.  Looking at the numbers I don't really understand why this is such a big error.

*************
Later in the same game and I have 66 to play.

is Emil score: 4 pip: 48

7 point match

pip: 105 score: 6 is Bill

XGID=-CBBBB----A-----b---cBAee-:1:1:1:66:6:4:0:7:10

to play 66

1.	XG Roller+	21/9(2)	eq: -0.430
	Player: Opponent: 29.88% (G:1.67% B:0.03%) 70.12% (G:1.36% B:0.01%)
2.	XG Roller+	21/3 10/4	eq: -0.530 (-0.101)
	Player: Opponent: 27.61% (G:1.74% B:0.04%) 72.39% (G:4.13% B:0.02%)
3.	4-ply	21/15 21/9 10/4	eq: -0.439 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 29.55% (G:1.52% B:0.03%) 70.45% (G:1.52% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I commited another whopper here.  I went for maximum contact, moving 21/3, 10/4.  It turns out this actually loses more and gets gammonded more too - always a bad combination!  My play gives too many extra point or pick and pass rolls in exchange for too few double shots.

Better was simply 21/9(2).  This maintains contact at a reasonable cost.