CSI Jeb - post 1

Below are selected errors from my finals match against Jeb at CSI.  I will follow up with more in a second post.

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Opening game of match.  Score is 15 away 15 away and I am on roll.  Cube action?

is Jeb Horton score: 0 pip: 139

15 point match

pip: 145 score: 0 is Bill Calton

XGID=-aaB-BDB----bBb--b-d-ABab-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:15:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.88% (G:28.60% B:1.36%)	67.80% (G:30.03% B:1.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.12% (G:8.53% B:0.25%)	32.20% (G:8.84% B:0.27%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.575	+1.188
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.808 (-0.137)
Double/Take:	+0.946
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.054)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed a strong cube here.  I think I missed it because I am behind in the race (I have 3 back to Jeb's two back) and I am not really threatening much.  But my position is solid - I have decent structure and have Jeb outboarded.  What I failed to appreciate is just how weak Jeb's game is.  He has the ace point made and a blot/semi-dead checker on his 2 point.  He is stripped on 3 points - the midpoint, 11 point and 8 points.  Also, Jeb is not anchored in my home board. 

Mostly a double based on 'ugly.'  I might get lucky and launch a succesful attack - note again the blot in Jeb's home board which might get picked up in an eschange of hits.  Or, I might just play quietly and Jeb's game continues to crack.  Unless he rolls well he will be leaving more blots and/or further comprimising his position soon.

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I lead 13 away 15 away and am on roll.  Cube action?

is Jeb Horton score: 0 pip: 118

15 point match

pip: 91 score: 2 is Bill Calton

XGID=aBBBBBBA-------b-bcccBa---:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:15:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	55.43% (G:17.14% B:0.03%)	55.62% (G:16.63% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	44.57% (G:7.21% B:0.25%)	44.38% (G:7.25% B:0.24%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.209	+0.414
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.109	±0.009 (+0.100..+0.118)
Double/Take:	-0.038 (-0.147)	±0.013 (-0.051..-0.025)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.891)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 34 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I doubled and Jeb dropped (by far the biggest error of the match).

My thinking (and maybe Jeb's as well) was that sixes are killed and fives escape so it must be a cube.  To be honest, I probably would have passed also.   It's hard to believe Jeb wins 44% of the time like the computer says.

++++

So I played the position out against the computer 20 times. 
1: Lost.  rolled immediate 5 but still cracked.  XG entered and counterattacked my straggler.
2: Lost.  rolled immediate 5 but still cracked.  XG entered and counterattacked my straggler.
3: Lost.  rolled 33 and cracked first roll
4: Won.  cracked and left shot immediately but XG missed and I rolled 55 to escape and cover.
5: Won 4 points.  escaped immediately and gammoned that ass.
6: Lost. rolled immediate 5 but still cracked.  XG missed first shot but hit a shot as I was bearing off and won anyway.
7: Won.  I rolled 61 to leave instant shot but won anyway.
8: Lost 4 points.  immediate 5 but then 44 to crack.  Lost 4 points on a recube.
9: Won.  Escaped both men easily.
10: Lost. immediate crash 43 followed by 61 from the bar to hit me.
11: Lost.  immediate crash 64 followed by XG hitting me.
12. Lost.  immediate 5 but still crashed later and got hit.
13. Lost 4 points.  escaped one man then cracked.  XG got the recube in as he attacked my lone straggler succesfully.
14.  Won 4 points.  escaped both and rolled home to a gammon.
15.  Won 4 points.  escaped both and rolled home to a gammon.
16.  Won 4 points.  escaped both easily and won a G-ball.
17. Won 4 points.  escpaed one man.  then 66 followed by a clutch 5 to escape and good rolling to not leave a shot during bearoff.
18.  Won.  double 55 first roll
19.  Won 4 points.  immediate 5 then another 5 then gammon.
20.  Lost.  31, 31, 32, 64, redouble / drop.

Overall...  10 wins (including 5 gammons) and 10 losses (including 2 losses on 4 cube)
The first thing I learned was that sixes are not killed!! What a terrible oversite.  In fact sixes are terrible!!
Second.  I can roll an immediate 5 and still crack.
XG can often recube from the bar.  Example - if I leave a shot and have only a four point board.
Often I crack immediately on the first roll - not good.

In short, there is plenty of counterplay left in the position.
*******

I lead 10 away 15 away.  Jeb is on roll.  Cube action?

is Jeb Horton score: 0 pip: 138

15 point match

pip: 139 score: 5 is Bill Calton

XGID=aA--C-C-BB--dBa--a-dbb--B-:0:0:-1:00:5:0:0:15:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.80% (G:22.12% B:1.63%)	65.17% (G:22.55% B:1.68%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.20% (G:11.65% B:0.35%)	34.83% (G:11.96% B:0.40%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.407	+0.892
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.701 (-0.060)	±0.011 (+0.689..+0.712)
Double/Take:	+0.760	±0.016 (+0.745..+0.776)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.240)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 14 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Jeb doubled and I dropped.  I was playing too timid trying to protect the lead.
Looking at the positives of the position...

It's only a one shot to hit... I have good offensive structure.  I have an anchor to cut down on the gammon threat somewhat.  Jeb has a nice 3 point board but I am not primed in.  Lot's of ways for me to win, even if I do get hit immediately.

***********

I lead 10 away 14 away, own the cube and have 51 to play. 

is Jeb Horton score: 1 pip: 118

15 point match

pip: 146 score: 5 is Bill Calton

XGID=-B---aD-DA-A---bbc-d-cB-A-:1:1:1:51:5:1:0:15:10

to play 51

1.	Rollout1	11/5*	eq: -0.517
	Player: Opponent: 29.18% (G:6.16% B:0.15%) 70.82% (G:20.35% B:0.80%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.524...-0.509) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 10 seconds
2.	Rollout1	9/4 6/5*	eq: -0.589 (-0.072)
	Player: Opponent: 29.64% (G:6.16% B:0.22%) 70.36% (G:27.27% B:1.61%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.597...-0.581) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 41 seconds
3.	Rollout1	11/6 9/8	eq: -0.606 (-0.089)
	Player: Opponent: 21.89% (G:2.90% B:0.08%) 78.11% (G:11.33% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.612...-0.600) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 32 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the hopeless 'give up' play 11/6, 9/8.  I probably overemphasized my lead and also the made ace-point.  Meaning, even I fall into a backgame - I figured it couldn't be that good with questionable timing and the ace point made.

But playing this soft is just ridiculous.  How the hell do I expect to win after this wimp ass play?  And my lead is not that large either.

I have an anchor, which cuts back on the gammons lost somewhat.  Strategically it also makes sense to attack the lone checker.  I have Jeb outnembered 12 to 1 on my side of the board and eqaul board strength.  I have to attack and hope for the best.  There is no other play really.
*************

Same game.  I trail 10 away 14 away and own the cube.  I just rolled 35 from the bar.  Hit or don't hit?

is Jeb Horton score: 1 pip: 69

15 point match

pip: 127 score: 5 is Bill Calton

XGID=-BB-A-D-C------a-a-cccBbbA:1:1:1:53:5:1:0:15:10

to play 53

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/17*	eq: -0.743
	Player: Opponent: 25.87% (G:3.40% B:0.06%) 74.13% (G:31.93% B:0.65%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 8/3	eq: -0.980 (-0.237)
	Player: Opponent: 9.72% (G:0.11% B:0.00%) 90.28% (G:18.22% B:0.21%)
3.	2-ply	Bar/22 6/1	eq: -1.040 (-0.297)
	Player: Opponent: 7.15% (G:0.11% B:0.00%) 92.85% (G:18.40% B:0.18%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

At least I got this one right!
Hit risks the gammons but also gives very real chances to win.  According the XG, you trade 13% extra Gammon losses for 16% extra wins.  Since a win is twice as good as a gammon loss (at least for money) this is a great trade.

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Next roll (Jeb bounced last turn).  How to play 32?

is Jeb Horton score: 1 pip: 86

15 point match

pip: 119 score: 5 is Bill Calton

XGID=aBB-A-D-C------a-A-cccBbb-:1:1:1:32:5:1:0:15:10

to play 32

1.	XG Roller++	17/15* 4/1	eq: +0.016
	Player: Opponent: 48.27% (G:7.06% B:0.10%) 51.73% (G:12.62% B:0.34%)
2.	XG Roller++	17/14 6/4	eq: -0.070 (-0.086)
	Player: Opponent: 43.88% (G:6.94% B:0.12%) 56.12% (G:11.43% B:0.29%)
3.	4-ply	17/15* 15/12	eq: -0.081 (-0.097)
	Player: Opponent: 46.47% (G:9.63% B:0.13%) 53.53% (G:19.14% B:0.45%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the board with 17/14, 6/4.

Far better was 17/15*, 4/1. 

I think the problem with my play is simply that I only have one blot back.  It's just too unlikely that I come around and keep his lone man contained.

It won't be easy to scramble home with only a 3 point board either.  But, Jeb will have two blots back and that is huge and gives me a fighting chance.