Crash 3/5 Frank #2

Below are errors from my second match against Frank from 3/5.  Frank played at a very high level, scoring 2.67 PR according to my XG!!

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Opening game.  7 away 7 away I have already turned the cube and have 61 to play.  Stay or leave the anchor?

is Frank2 score: 0 pip: 122

7 point match

pip: 117 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-B-BBBB-b---bC---bbdB-ba--:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:7:10

to play 61

1.	XG Roller++	13/6	eq: -0.098
	Player: Opponent: 52.22% (G:7.81% B:0.15%) 47.78% (G:5.43% B:0.09%)
2.	XG Roller++	20/13	eq: -0.129 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 50.95% (G:10.55% B:0.14%) 49.05% (G:7.71% B:0.12%)
3.	4-ply	13/7 3/2	eq: -0.122 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 51.50% (G:7.46% B:0.06%) 48.50% (G:5.53% B:0.11%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I ran with 20/13 and to be honest I am not sure why this is wrong.  I am up in the race, albeit by not a lot, I have a menacing 5 point board and Frank has a blot in his board.  I am likely to have to break sooner or later anyway, so why not now?

Perhaps the reasons are: I am not really that far up in the race after all.  When I don't get pointed on, Frank waits and improves his board.  Then next time I really need to perform.  I need another 7 to jump to safety else Franks next hit will spell curtains for me. 

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Same game.  7 away 7 away and I have turned the cube.  33 to play.  Pay now or pay later?

is Frank2 score: 0 pip: 107

7 point match

pip: 99 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=-B-BBBB-bA--bD----acaacb--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:7:10

to play 33

1.	3-ply	13/10(4)	eq: +0.403
	Player: Opponent: 73.28% (G:3.94% B:0.14%) 26.72% (G:0.81% B:0.01%)
2.	3-ply	13/7 9/6 5/2	eq: +0.308 (-0.096)
	Player: Opponent: 70.04% (G:1.60% B:0.01%) 29.96% (G:0.60% B:0.01%)
3.	3-ply	13/7 9/3	eq: +0.306 (-0.098)
	Player: Opponent: 69.98% (G:1.48% B:0.01%) 30.02% (G:0.53% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I am happy to report that I actually got this one right.  All the conditions are right for paying now.  I am up n the race. If he misses the game is virtually over.  If he hits, well his board is double blotted - he probably won't even hit with 14, 15, 16.

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I lead 5 away 7 away and have 64 to play.

is Frank2 score: 0 pip: 163

7 point match

pip: 160 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=-b----EBB---eD---abcb---B-:0:0:1:64:2:0:0:7:10

to play 64

1.	XG Roller++	13/9 13/7	eq: -0.483
	Player: Opponent: 40.68% (G:12.52% B:0.65%) 59.32% (G:17.46% B:0.98%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/2 6/2	eq: -0.526 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 39.86% (G:12.39% B:0.71%) 60.14% (G:18.52% B:0.96%)
3.	3-ply	13/7 6/2	eq: -0.589 (-0.106)
	Player: Opponent: 38.68% (G:10.62% B:0.62%) 61.32% (G:19.12% B:1.21%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the 2 point and am 'lucky' this play isn't a bigger mistake than the computer analyzes.

I reasoned that I was a dog in a prime versus prime contest since I was up in the race and Frank already has the 5 point made.  But what else is there?

By making the 2 point I even board stength and hope to attack Frank later.  But really this is even less likely to work than the priming attempt.  I give him 43 and 52 for free and my structure is just butt ugly.  He plays off the mid next time and then what do I do next roll?

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Next roll of same game.  Frank rolled 41 and made his 8 point.  Now I have 32 to play.

is Frank2 score: 0 pip: 158

7 point match

pip: 150 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=-bB---DBA---dD---bbcb---B-:0:0:1:32:2:0:0:7:10

to play 32

1.	XG Roller++	24/22 24/21	eq: -0.489
	Player: Opponent: 40.97% (G:11.85% B:0.64%) 59.03% (G:20.38% B:1.00%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/21 13/11	eq: -0.564 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 38.83% (G:11.59% B:0.60%) 61.17% (G:19.46% B:1.22%)
3.	XG Roller++	24/21 8/6	eq: -0.564 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 38.52% (G:11.08% B:0.49%) 61.48% (G:18.86% B:0.84%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Expecting to be attacked and also expexting the cube, I split with the 3 and cleaned up the blot with the 2 - 24/21, 24/22.  This is too stiff and too wimpy. 

Two up is the play - 24/21, 24/22.  I need an anchor now and should seize the opportunity to send two while he has only 9 in the zone.  9 is sort of a alot, but sort of not since he has only one builder not part of the prime.  Also important is that my blot on the 8 point is not really in danger this roll.  61 is blocked and it is unclear if Frank should hit or not with 43 and 52.  And even he does choose to hit then I get a chance to roll either a 4 or 3 from the bar to anchor up.

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Same game.  I lead 5 away 7 away and own the cube.  21 to play from the bar.

is Frank2 score: 0 pip: 135

7 point match

pip: 139 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=-bB---EC-A--bB--a-bbcba-AA:1:1:1:21:2:0:0:7:10

to play 21

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 24/23	eq: -0.354
	Player: Opponent: 35.02% (G:10.67% B:0.58%) 64.98% (G:18.95% B:0.95%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/22*	eq: -0.383 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 35.83% (G:13.68% B:1.38%) 64.17% (G:24.05% B:1.53%)
3.	1-ply	Bar/24 6/4	eq: -0.688 (-0.334)
	Player: Opponent: 27.44% (G:6.93% B:0.44%) 72.56% (G:28.94% B:3.19%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I hit and honestly didn't even consider the other play.

Anchoring up on the duece is best.  Gammons lost appears to be the reason.  I have a window out with sixes from the duece anchor so I suppose the 3 point anchor is only a minor improvement.  So the gain is modest.  Meanwhile there is certainly no gaurantee I will anchor on the 3 anyway so the danger is real.  I definitely want to avoid a gammon if I can.  Hence, anchor and call it a day.  Hopefully I will at least consider the anchor possibility the next time something similar crops up.

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I trail 4 away 5 away and have already doubled.  51 to play.

is Frank2 score: 3 pip: 159

7 point match

pip: 102 score: 2 is Bill

XGID=--ABbbDDB---bB---abbbaa---:1:-1:1:51:2:3:0:7:10

to play 51

1.	XG Roller+	7/6 7/2	eq: +0.312
	Player: Opponent: 64.88% (G:16.78% B:0.25%) 35.12% (G:4.79% B:0.14%)
2.	XG Roller+	7/1	eq: +0.284 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 64.65% (G:15.03% B:0.14%) 35.35% (G:4.95% B:0.16%)
3.	XG Roller+	6/1 2/1	eq: +0.264 (-0.048)
	Player: Opponent: 63.75% (G:15.52% B:0.13%) 36.25% (G:5.09% B:0.15%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 6/1, 2/1.  makes a point and keeps a spare on the 7 point.  Done - pick up the dice.

Best was 7/6, 7/2.  I am guessing the principle is to avoid dumping to the ace point.  This play also makes a point and the 'spare sixes' that I save with my play are going to suck.  My sixes will place a third man on the ace point.  With the computers play, my next 6 goes to the ace and I can hope to make it later, achieving a 4 point board sometime near the time when Frank will have to vacate the mid-point, and/or his 4 and 5 point anchors.  A 4-point board would be a nice asset to have so I can safely hit a shot should Frank leave one a few rolls down the line.

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I lead 4 away Crawford and have 63 to play.

is Frank2 score: 3 pip: 161

7 point match Crawford

pip: 158 score: 6 is Bill

XGID=-b---BD-C-A-dBa--c-cBb--A-:0:0:1:63:6:3:1:7:10

to play 63

1.	XG Roller++	13/7 10/7	eq: +0.161
	Player: Opponent: 61.89% (G:21.71% B:1.36%) 38.11% (G:7.46% B:0.28%)
2.	XG Roller++	20/14* 14/11	eq: +0.092 (-0.069)
	Player: Opponent: 59.70% (G:23.33% B:2.06%) 40.30% (G:9.92% B:0.54%)
3.	3-ply	24/15	eq: +0.089 (-0.072)
	Player: Opponent: 58.43% (G:16.39% B:0.73%) 41.57% (G:7.71% B:0.27%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I hit and ran with 20/14*/11.  Put a third man back and escape a man at the same time - how could that be wrong?

Well, apparently my move wins less and gets gammoned more, a bad combo when playing gammon save!!

Making the prime gives me a strong offensive position.  I can't get primed and should have time to escape later.  Vacating the anchor at a time when he has 3 builders aimed at the 5-point entails some risk, risk which I didn't appreciate at the time.