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June 5, 2012

Crash 6/4 Faris

I recorded my match versus Faris from the weekly tournament last night.  Below are selected errors from this match.
********

First game of 7 point match, centered cube.  How should I pay 53?
is Faris

score: 0
pip: 115
7 point match
pip: 117
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=--B-BBB-C-AcaB---c-bbbbA--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:7:10
to play 53

1.XG Roller++23/15eq: -0.685
Player:
Opponent:		31.32% (G:1.22% B:0.02%)
68.68% (G:8.07% B:0.10%)
2.XG Roller++8/5 8/3eq: -0.739 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:		29.32% (G:4.14% B:0.06%)
70.68% (G:8.16% B:0.27%)
3.XG Roller++10/7 8/3eq: -0.760 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:		29.02% (G:3.37% B:0.05%)
70.98% (G:7.78% B:0.18%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 10/7, 8/3, staying back while starting the next point in my board.
I figured barely up in the race, jumping into a doubleshot that is likely to fail isn't the way to go.  But it is!!  XG says I should make a break for it with 23/15.

I suppose this is an example of Pottle's Law. Always run the back checker.  The race is close and if he misses I should be a small favorite owning the cube in a longish race.  But if hits I am mostly screwed.  Easy take so I suppose I should run and put the pressure on Faris to perform.
Faris has a proper double after either play so I don't feel too bad about this one.  I think the question is - which play is most likey to not get the cube?

I am not sure of the answer, but Faris didn't double when I stayed back so at least my play gets this bonus.
Interestingly, the computer says the 2nd best play is to simply make the 3 point!!  The difference?  I have 2 covers after my play versus 2 covers for XG's play - but my fives are duplicated.  I have 5's out and 5's to cover.  Advantage XG.

************
Later in the same game.  I popped a joker and have been Too Good the past few rolls.  How to play this lemon 44?
is Faris

score: 0
pip: 128
7 point match
pip: 90
score: 0

is Bill
XGID=a-BBBBCC---c----ab-bbbbA--:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:7:10
to play 44

1.XG Roller+7/3 6/2 5/1(2)eq: +0.420
Player:
Opponent:		54.92% (G:23.36% B:0.04%)
45.08% (G:3.82% B:0.11%)
2.XG Roller+7/3(3) 6/2eq: +0.191 (-0.229)
Player:
Opponent:		52.82% (G:25.99% B:0.12%)
47.18% (G:7.00% B:0.27%)
3.4-ply7/3(2) 5/1(2)eq: +0.193 (-0.227)
Player:
Opponent:		50.84% (G:21.37% B:0.06%)
49.16% (G:4.70% B:0.15%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made a double whopper, moving 7/3(2), 6/2.  I wanted to keep the prime and kill sixes.  My mindset was if he dances I double next roll.

Similar strategy, but better execution would have been 7/3, 6/2, 5/1(2).  This also keeps a 5 point board and prepares to double next roll should Faris dance.  The key difference is flexibility.  If I don't roll a 5 my rolls play much better and I will hold the 5 point board for longer.
***********
Later in the match.  I trail 5 away 4 away and have 41 to play.

is Faris

score: 3
pip: 144
7 point match
pip: 138
score: 2

is Bill
XGID=-b--BBDBA---bB---cbd-b--B-:0:0:1:41:2:3:0:7:10
to play 41

1.XG Roller++24/20 8/7eq: +0.468
Player:
Opponent:		60.16% (G:21.15% B:1.36%)
39.84% (G:13.28% B:0.56%)
2.XG Roller++13/8eq: +0.426 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:		59.83% (G:19.12% B:1.21%)
40.17% (G:12.10% B:0.78%)
3.XG Roller++24/20 6/5eq: +0.382 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:		58.61% (G:21.23% B:1.67%)
41.39% (G:15.66% B:0.81%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the bonehead play 24/20, 6/5.  I was feeling the heat of his offense and wanted to make a stand right here and now.  But this is simply the wrong strategy.

Recalling my post about Mochy's priming versus Blitz structure, I should have recognized I am fighting Prime versus Blitz.

Mochy advises....

** never split runners
** low anchor is fine
** slot

Faris's strucutre looks like a Prime but it's really not.  He doesn't have the 5 point made and isn't too likely to make it.  Rather he is ready to attack me so splitting my man is really leading with the chin.
Moreover, my 41 roll plays constructively.  13/8 extending the prime is the natural play and I should have made it.  Instead I panicked and commited a near whopper.

***********
I trail 4 away 3 away and am on roll.  Cube action?

is Faris

score: 4
pip: 150
7 point match
pip: 130
score: 3

is Bill
XGID=-AB-abCAB-BabC---b-caab--A:0:0:1:00:3:4:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 56.12% (G:25.05% B:0.87%) 56.00% (G:25.00% B:0.88%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 43.88% (G:12.70% B:0.56%) 44.00% (G:12.85% B:0.57%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.202 +0.925
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.497 (-0.155)
xg Double/Take:+0.652
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.348)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I missed a strong cube here.  Even though Faris is double blotted in his home board, I didn't think I was threatening much.  Even if I hit ....

** Faris is anchored on my 5 point
** I have the lame duece point made
** I have a blot on the ace point.
** I am one hell of a long way from winning this game

Indeed, for money this would be a terrible cube.  I am only a small favorite.

The reason this is a strong cube is mostly the scoreboard.

** My gammon value is nearly 1.0.  Perfect efficiency since a gammon wins me the match.
** Faris's recube is crippled.  My match equity at 4 away crawford is 19% so Faris will wait and wait before he ever recubes and puts the match on the line.  Hence even when things go sour early I might get lucky later on and win anyway.
** Faris has 4 blots.  This is probably the biggest key to the position.  Even though I am barely a favorite, there are variations where I scoop those blots and roll home to a match winning gammon.  25% of the time per XG - a significant amount of the time!!!
********
I trail 4 away 2 away and am on roll.  Cube action?
is Faris

score: 5
pip: 153
7 point match
pip: 165
score: 3

is Bill
XGID=-a---aEBB-A-cB---e-e-A--B-:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 54.27% (G:18.09% B:0.71%) 54.09% (G:18.26% B:0.69%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 45.73% (G:13.20% B:0.91%) 45.91% (G:13.24% B:0.92%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.037 +0.639
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.566 (-0.073)
xg Double/Take:+0.639
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.361)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Yes this is a technical double, and a fairly large one at that.  I absolutely knew this was a cube but didn't double anyway on the logic this is too easy a take.  I'd prefer to give Faris a tougher decision. 

Is this a mistake or not?  Hard to say.  In the actual match I was rewarded as Faris took a monster drop later on.  Yet this is definitely wrong not to cube here. 

********
Score is 2 away 2 away and I have 33 to play.  Your move?
is Faris

score: 5
pip: 163
7 point match
pip: 156
score: 5

is Bill
XGID=-b----E-C---eF---b-db---A-:0:0:1:33:5:5:0:7:10
to play 33

1.XG Roller+13/10(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.415
Player:
Opponent:		57.37% (G:16.12% B:0.94%)
42.63% (G:10.44% B:0.33%)
2.XG Roller+24/15 13/10eq: +0.200 (-0.215)
Player:
Opponent:		53.54% (G:9.87% B:0.36%)
46.46% (G:11.66% B:0.34%)
3.4-ply13/7(2)eq: +0.334 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:		55.93% (G:13.79% B:0.55%)
44.07% (G:10.65% B:0.33%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing. 

My first instinct was to make the best play - 13/10(2), 6/3(2).  This unstacks the heavy midpoint and sixpoint while making two new points at the same time and it leaves no blots.  What could be better?  well, nothing of course.

I talked myself out of this play by some faulty reasoning.  This is essentially DMP and I am way up in the race.  Uo in the race, race.  So let's run and if I get away with it, I have a large advantage.

But my play is an if play.  I get benefits from it if it works but if it doesn't work I am screwed.  And actually, even when I get away with it the game is hardly over.  I still have to clean up the blot and I have stacks and no points.  Faris has the 5 point made already and I really don't want to get hit - now or later.
On the other hand, the obvious 13/10(2), 6/3(2) is great for me no matter what Faris rolls.  This play improves my position for sure, now and in the future. 

Recapping, this is one of those errors I would have never made as a beginner or intermediate.  Ooops!!!

*************
Later in the same game.  I have cubed so it really is DMP now.  11 to play.

is Faris

score: 5
pip: 145
7 point match
pip: 139
score: 5

is Bill
XGID=-a----E-C-B-dEa--c-db-----:1:-1:1:11:5:5:0:7:10
to play 11

1.XG Roller+10/9(2) 6/5(2)eq: +0.371
Player:
Opponent:		68.57% (G:7.18% B:0.12%)
31.43% (G:2.31% B:0.05%)
2.XG Roller+8/7(2) 6/5(2)eq: +0.317 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:		65.86% (G:8.60% B:0.15%)
34.14% (G:3.69% B:0.09%)
3.4-ply8/5 6/5eq: +0.319 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:		65.96% (G:6.89% B:0.14%)
34.04% (G:2.87% B:0.07%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I played 6/5(2), 8/7(2) with the logic that this improves my position the most and puts great pressure on Faris to roll well now.  ie, I am trying to just wrap up the game.

But, I already have a large advantage so I need to balance risk and reward.  I am up in the race so the strategy should simply be to come home safe.  I REALLY don't want to get hit here. so just play tight.  6/5(2), 10/9(2) also improves the structure but leaves no blots.  The only drawback is it leaves 65 and 64 as good rolls for Faris.  But even in this case I would still be a slight favorite to win the race.

So all in all my play fails the Risk/Reward test and basic DMP strategy.

**********
Later in the same game.  DMP scenario and I have 33 to play.

is Faris

score: 5
pip: 98
7 point match
pip: 98
score: 5

is Bill
XGID=-B-aBBCC----bC-----dc-bba-:1:-1:1:33:5:5:0:7:10
to play 33

1.XG Roller++13/10 6/3*(3) eq: +0.458
Player:
Opponent:		72.91% (G:5.52% B:0.06%)
27.09% (G:2.42% B:0.04%)
2.XG Roller++7/4 6/3*(3) eq: +0.438 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		71.91% (G:5.41% B:0.06%)
28.09% (G:2.72% B:0.05%)
3.XG Roller++13/10(3) 7/4eq: +0.423 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		71.15% (G:2.09% B:0.04%)
28.85% (G:0.31% B:0.01%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I made the wimpy play.  13/10(3), 7/4.  I thought I was ahead enough in the race to just take no chances and try to roll home to a simple race win.  And while my play wasn't terrible - the race is close enough that it pays to slow Faris down.

Therefore, the best play was the point-switch 13/10, 6/3*(3).  This puts Faris on the bar against a 4 point board and is very strong.  Faris has a couple jokers from the bar.  But, this should be compared to the jokers I give Faris by not hitting.

In the match, Faris punished me for my mistake by rolling boxes - winning the race and the match.

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