Crash 6/4 Greg

I recorded a second match from the weekly Monday club tournament.  These are selected errors from my Round 2 match versus Greg.

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Opening game of 7 point match.  I own the cube and have 31 to play.

is Greg score: 0 pip: 123

7 point match

pip: 162 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=---aBBB-A---dD--Bc-bBba-b-:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:7:10

to play 31

1.	XG Roller++	13/10 8/7	eq: +0.082
	Player: Opponent: 46.81% (G:10.57% B:0.31%) 53.19% (G:14.06% B:0.23%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/9	eq: +0.044 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 46.32% (G:10.67% B:0.29%) 53.68% (G:16.80% B:0.26%)
3.	XG Roller++	8/4	eq: +0.005 (-0.077)
	Player: Opponent: 43.66% (G:9.69% B:0.24%) 56.34% (G:12.63% B:0.20%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I created a "John Q" builder, opting for the wimpy, stacky, and wrong 8/4.  This doesn't leave a shot, which is good.  But other than that, this play has nothing going for it.

I am downin the race, have an anchor, and opponent has a home board blot.  These are all the classic signals for a bold play.  Thus, 13/10, 8/7 is called for.  I want to keep my checkers in front of Greg for maximum offense and future flexibility.  The downside from being hit is muted while the upside is large.

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Just to re-emphasize how strong the above themes are, take a look at this position.  (the very next roll).  Bill to play 54.

is Greg score: 0 pip: 115

7 point match

pip: 158 score: 0 is Bill

XGID=---aCBB-----bDb-Bb-bBca-b-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:7:10

to play 54

1.	XG Roller++	13/9 13/8	eq: +0.043
	Player: Opponent: 46.30% (G:11.88% B:0.42%) 53.70% (G:17.85% B:0.33%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/4	eq: +0.013 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 43.74% (G:10.32% B:0.33%) 56.26% (G:12.78% B:0.24%)
3.	2-ply	16/7	eq: -0.144 (-0.187)
	Player: Opponent: 41.00% (G:9.91% B:0.46%) 59.00% (G:21.15% B:0.36%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Consistent with my previous play, I played the butt-ugly 13/4.  Which isn't terrible, but once again, let's look at the Magriel Safe vs Bod criteria.

Behind in the race, anchor, blotty home board = Bold play.

The suprising 13/8, 13/9 is best.  The computer just hates to kill checkers and/or stack checkers!!
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I trail 6 away 5 away and am on roll.  Cube action?

is Greg score: 2 pip: 149

7 point match

pip: 143 score: 1 is Bill

XGID=----aBDbD---bD---caea----A:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	63.24% (G:16.70% B:0.58%)	62.94% (G:17.57% B:0.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	36.76% (G:6.82% B:0.19%)	37.06% (G:6.96% B:0.19%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.384	+0.843
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.627
Double/Take:	+0.609 (-0.018)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.373)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 4.3%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Looking at the position.  I am up in the race, have him outboarded, am (slightly) behind in the match, and shooting at several blots.  Looked like opportunity was knocking, so I doubled.

No chance Greg would drop this, so perhaps I should wait.  A tad early on the trigger.

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Next I trail 5 away 4 away and am on roll.  Cube action?

is Greg score: 2 pip: 181

7 point match

pip: 152 score: 3 is Bill

XGID=aa--a-EAD---eC---b-eA---A-:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	63.81% (G:24.73% B:1.44%)	63.91% (G:24.86% B:1.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	36.19% (G:7.31% B:0.27%)	36.09% (G:7.25% B:0.27%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.541	+1.372
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.757 (-0.105)
Double/Take:	+0.862
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.138)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

With a one-point board I wasn't really thinking cube but I should have been.  This is a borderline cube for money but a big cube at this score. 

My elevated gammon value of .77, along with a sizable race lead, 10 men in the zone and Greg having one man up already - translate into a solid cube.  I missed it.

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After not doubling, I have 53 to play.

is Greg score: 2 pip: 181

7 point match

pip: 152 score: 3 is Bill

XGID=aa--a-EAD---eC---b-eA---A-:0:0:1:53:3:2:0:7:10

to play 53

1.	XG Roller+	20/15 7/4*	eq: +0.565
	Player: Opponent: 59.60% (G:20.89% B:1.34%) 40.40% (G:9.05% B:0.34%)
2.	XG Roller+	8/3 6/3	eq: +0.502 (-0.063)
	Player: Opponent: 58.93% (G:21.17% B:1.02%) 41.07% (G:8.51% B:0.30%)
3.	4-ply	7/4* 6/1*	eq: +0.518 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 58.47% (G:21.90% B:0.86%) 41.53% (G:9.14% B:0.39%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the constructive but wimpy 8/3, 6/3.  I wanted to unstack and do something positive.

Better was 22/15, 7/4*.  This looks clumsy, but puts two men on the bar.  Most important, it places enourmous pressure on Greg to roll well from the bar.  My play, while it does do something positive in making a home board point, places little pressure on Greg.  Most likely he anchors somewhere, when the game will continue for a long time.