FortDonaldson

Below are selected errors from an online match against FortDonaldson.

First game of a 9 point match and I have to play.

is fortdonaldson score: 0 pip: 145

9 point match

pip: 145 score: 0 is doublenicks

XGID=---Bb-D-C---dD--Ab-db--Aa-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:9:10

to play 53

1.	XG Roller+	23/18 16/13	eq: -0.123
	Player: Opponent: 48.76% (G:6.20% B:0.22%) 51.24% (G:13.00% B:0.14%)
2.	XG Roller+	16/8	eq: -0.181 (-0.057)
	Player: Opponent: 47.59% (G:6.71% B:0.21%) 52.41% (G:14.58% B:0.13%)
3.	4-ply	16/11 8/5	eq: -0.207 (-0.084)
	Player: Opponent: 46.52% (G:9.74% B:0.41%) 53.48% (G:17.89% B:0.57%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I played the "obvious" 16/8 cleaning up a blot.

To be honest, I am not sure why this is wrong.  The best I can come up with is that I am up (slightly) up in the race and he has a blot in the home board so I might as well make a break for it now.

************
I trail 9 away 8 away and have 51 to play.

is fortdonaldson score: 1 pip: 159

9 point match

pip: 160 score: 0 is doublenicks

XGID=---b--EBB---dD--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:51:0:1:0:9:10

to play 51

1.	XG Roller++	13/8 6/5	eq: -0.035
	Player: Opponent: 49.83% (G:11.83% B:0.47%) 50.17% (G:14.05% B:0.70%)
2.	XG Roller++	24/23 13/8	eq: -0.063 (-0.028)
	Player: Opponent: 49.45% (G:10.23% B:0.35%) 50.55% (G:13.59% B:0.44%)
3.	4-ply	24/18	eq: -0.040 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 50.21% (G:9.98% B:0.32%) 49.79% (G:13.35% B:0.45%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 24/23, 13/8 splitting the back men while bringing down a builder from the mid.

Best was slotting with 13/8, 6/5.

Now that I nearly down re-examing the reply rolls, my eye is being drawn more and more to the 3rd roll positions.  A huge task, and not sure how I will approach it.  For now, I am making a mental note whenever I make a 3rd roll misplay.

My current thinking.  Here are the "usual reasons" for slotting in the early game.

• six point is stacked - you need to get these guys into the game
• opponent is not split in your home board
• you are behind inthe race
• there is some duplication involved (his numbers to hit you could also be used to make a home board point on the other side)

Most of these reasons apply to the position (excepting the race, which is close)

*********

Next I trail 9 away 4 away and am on roll.  Cube action?

is fortdonaldson score: 5 pip: 144

9 point match

pip: 101 score: 0 is doublenicks

XGID=-BcCa-DBB----A----bbbcbA--:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	50.12% (G:16.30% B:0.57%)	50.07% (G:16.15% B:0.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	49.88% (G:11.01% B:0.49%)	49.93% (G:11.15% B:0.53%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.021	+0.045
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.176
Double/Take:	-0.023 (-0.200)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.824)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.3%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I gave a way way way premature cube here.  My thinking, such as it was, was mostly scoreboard logic.  I am way down in the match so I can send a loose one.  Also, I thought my numbers were well diversified.  sixes escape while small numbers may point on his head or pick and pass.

But this is simply too optimistic.

I am actually threatening very little here.  Checking the dice distribution, only double 2's, 3's or 1's are real killers.  Even if I six out and he misses I barely have a cube.  His offense is too strong, I have a gappy board and some dead checkers.  I have too much work to do to even be threatening something.

Also note there are very few gammons.  This would be the usual justification for throwing a lopsided score sube.

********

Later in the same game.  I have 52 to play.

is fortdonaldson score: 5 pip: 137

9 point match

pip: 46 score: 0 is doublenicks

XGID=-BdDCD-------------cbbbaa-:1:-1:1:52:0:5:0:9:10

to play 52

1.	XG Roller+	5/3 5/Off	eq: +1.591
	Player: Opponent: 87.91% (G:66.52% B:4.00%) 12.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller+	5/Off 3/1	eq: +1.480 (-0.111)
	Player: Opponent: 85.01% (G:63.45% B:3.44%) 14.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I moved 5/off, 5/1 keeping even on the back points.

Better was 5/off, 5/3 - preparing to clear. 

After my play (5/off, 5/1) I blot on 65 only. 

The superior play ( 5/off, 5/3) blots on 63, 53, 66, 55 and 44 yet this play wins more games and more gammons.  And further, my play is a whopper.  I am confused.  Do any readers know the answer to this one?
***********

Next position.  I trail 5 away 4 away and FortDonaldson doubles.  Take action?

is fortdonaldson score: 5 pip: 149

9 point match

pip: 163 score: 4 is doublenicks

XGID=-b----E-D---eD---a-c--bbAA:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 4-ply	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	62.19% (G:26.72% B:1.18%)	61.98% (G:27.31% B:1.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	37.81% (G:8.76% B:0.46%)	38.02% (G:8.92% B:0.48%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.514	+1.315
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.686 (-0.081)
Double/Take:	+0.768
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.232)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I correctly took but wasn't sure about this one.  Obviously the take is enormous and I am no where near the drop zone.
I must have overemphasized his gammon value in my head when looking at this position.

The closest reference position would probably be 51S-55P-Fan.  With a blot on the duece point, eight in the zone ... this would be a small no double.  Having the 2 point instead of the ace is better for him.  But being on the ace point instead of the duece is better for me, so this mostly offsets.  The deciding factor, apparently, is the huge gammon value for FortDonaldson - which turns the position from money small no double to large double / take.

************
Next position.  I trail 5 away 3 away and have 63 to play.

is fortdonaldson score: 7 pip: 153

9 point match

pip: 155 score: 4 is doublenicks

XGID=aA--a-D-D---cD---cbe--A-A-:0:0:1:63:4:7:0:9:10

to play 63

1.	XG Roller+	13/4*	eq: -0.121
	Player: Opponent: 43.71% (G:12.00% B:0.33%) 56.29% (G:16.21% B:0.92%)
2.	XG Roller+	22/13	eq: -0.211 (-0.090)
	Player: Opponent: 43.01% (G:8.37% B:0.22%) 56.99% (G:14.25% B:0.55%)
3.	4-ply	24/21 22/16	eq: -0.171 (-0.050)
	Player: Opponent: 44.18% (G:9.05% B:0.28%) 55.82% (G:16.88% B:0.64%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I was confused on this play.  I went with 22/13 simply escaping one back man, a very modest accomplishment,

Better was the aggressive 13/4* but why?

Not sure.  My guesses.

Fisrt, my wimpy play puts no pressure on the opponent.  He hits me with aces when I am behind or he anchors and has no problems or he simply comes in and I am stacky and gappy.

The hitting play puts two men in the air and fights for key points.  I hope to make the 4 point or possibly launch a blitz if he rolls poorly.  If he hits me back, FortDonaldson only has a one point board so I take my chances now before the game is formed.  I rate to make an anchor and the game continues. 

Also, ny not stacking up I give the most flexibilty to play future rolls, whether it is a hitting contest or whatever.