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June 22, 2012

Replies to 32Z

32Z is rarely played but essentially tied with 32S as an opening roll.  It may be worth trying this from time to time, since several of the replies are very difficult to know. 

For example, 32Z-32 kill
and 32Z-51 run.

On the other hand, I'm not sure how much equity you gain from errors.

The most likely benefit is probably 64 where hit is best and anything else a significant mistake.

Anything other than 62 split is a big error as well, but I am not sure how likely someone is to mess that up.

While the ace replies (51, 41, 21) are difficult for someone to get right, almost any play is reasonable so you don't that much.

Same logic for the two down replies (54, 43, 32, 52).  The mistakes are .01 or smaller so while opponent may be confused, he can't really make too large a mistake.
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 167
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a-a--E-C---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?



Replies to 32Z Error Key Tie Small Medium Blunder
Per XG opening Book < .005 < .02 < .06 > .06
General Notes
I find these replies very difficult to understand.  It may be worth opening with 32Z to try and capture some of these errors
Aces are very tricky.  The good news is no matter what you play you can't be too wrong
Exception: 32Z- 51 Run is the only time you run!!  I like hitting with 21 and 41 even though it's wrong.
Split or two down plays are also tricky.  I say always hit and you can't be too wrong.
Kill with 32 is another exception: 32Z-32 is the only time hitting two correct with 32
52 Split and kill are tied.
Hit and Split with 43.
6X rolls are pretty obvious except for 62.  Split with 62
Doubles are all obvious.
Reply Roll BEST 2nd 3rd 4th
Point Making Rolls 31 P 8/5, 6/5                  
                       
42 P 8/4, 6/4          
                       
53 P 8/3*, 6/3          
                       
61 P 13/7, 8/7          
                       
Split or Slot 21 S 24/21, 13/11 H 6/3* 0.0055            
  note duplication of 64                  
41 U 24/23, 24/20 H 8/3* 0.0014 S 24/23, 13/9 0.0036 T 13/8 0.0094
  two up best (weird) but any play is reasonable            
51 R 24/18 S 24/23, 13/8 0.0049 X 24/23, 8/3* 0.0341  
                       
Split or Two Down 54 H 24/15*                  
                       
52 S 24/22, 13/8 K 8/3*/1* 0.0042 X 24/22, 8/3* 0.0061 D 13/11, 13/8 0.0239
                       
43 X 24/20, 6/3* H 13/9, 6/3* 0.0107      
                       
32 K 6/3*/1* X 24/22, 6/3* 0.0062 H 13/11, 6/3* 0.0147 S 24/21, 13/11 0.0659
                       
6-X Rolls 65 R 24/13 S 24/18, 13/8 0.0206            
                       
64 H 13/3* R 24/14 0.0253 S 24/18, 13/9 0.0397 P 8/2, 6/2 0.0594
                       
63 H 24/15*          
                       
62 S 24/18, 13/11 U 24/22, 24/18 0.0501 R 24/16 0.0598  
                       
Doubles 11 e 24/22, 6/5(2)                  
                       
22 N 13/11(2), 6/4(2) U 24/20(2) 0.0303   24/22, 13/11, 6/4(2) 0.0382 E 24/22(2), 6/4(2) 0.0494
                       
33 A 8/2(2), 6/3*(2)          
                       
44 B 24/20(2), 13/9(2)          
                       
55 A 8/3*(2), 6/1*(20          
                       
66 B 24/18(2), 13/7(20          
                       
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