LAX

Below are selected errors from an online match against LAX.

First game of 7 point match and I have 52 to play.

is lax score: 0 pip: 145

7 point match

pip: 162 score: 0 is Chutzpah

XGID=-a----EABAa-dD-a-a-e--b-B-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:7:10

to play 52

1.	XG Roller++	9/4 6/4	eq: -0.135
	Player: Opponent: 46.78% (G:14.53% B:0.60%) 53.22% (G:16.70% B:1.16%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/8 9/7	eq: -0.264 (-0.129)
	Player: Opponent: 44.09% (G:11.56% B:0.43%) 55.91% (G:17.10% B:0.97%)
3.	2-ply	9/7 6/1*	eq: -0.312 (-0.177)
	Player: Opponent: 42.54% (G:11.40% B:0.52%) 57.46% (G:17.93% B:1.30%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the correct play for a change, closing the 4 point with 9/4, 6/4.

I wasn't so sure at the time and considered the terrible 13/8, 9/7.

Those blots make a difference, but I note that even with no blots making the 4 point is correct by a sizable margin so that is not the only factor. 
It looks like, down in the race I simply need to make a home board point and need to get those guys on the 6 point into the game.

***********
I trail 6 away 5 away and have 55 to play.

is lax score: 2 pip: 118

7 point match

pip: 114 score: 1 is Chutzpah

XGID=-aB---E-CbC--B--b-abbbab--:0:0:1:55:1:2:0:7:10

to play 55

1.	XG Roller+	13/3(2)	eq: +0.981
	Player: Opponent: 74.48% (G:5.70% B:0.05%) 25.52% (G:1.42% B:0.02%)
2.	XG Roller+	10/5(2) 6/1*(2)	eq: +0.793 (-0.188)
	Player: Opponent: 70.44% (G:19.40% B:0.57%) 29.56% (G:5.23% B:0.13%)
3.	4-ply	13/8(2) 6/1*(2)	eq: +0.923 (-0.058)
	Player: Opponent: 74.81% (G:8.68% B:0.05%) 25.19% (G:2.22% B:0.05%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

What is the best way to let the cube do the work for you?

The quiet 13/3(2) is the answer.  Pocket those 20 pips, leaving no blots and prepare to send a tough cube next roll.
Unfortunately for me, I made the blunder 6/1*(2), 10/5(2) - going for the gusto.

I give him some unnecessary jokers when the upside just isn't there.  I figured I had a play-on when he danced.  And I do, but it is neglible.  Next time don't take any chances - play safe and toss the cube.

*******
Score is 5 away 5 away and I am on roll.  Cube action?

is lax score: 2 pip: 161

7 point match

pip: 144 score: 2 is Chutzpah

XGID=-c--aBD-D---bC--Ab-c--bAb-:0:0:1:00:2:2:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.24% (G:25.46% B:2.29%)	70.37% (G:26.74% B:2.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.76% (G:8.33% B:0.17%)	29.63% (G:9.17% B:0.25%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.587	+1.266
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.859 (-0.141)
Double/Take:	+1.048 (+0.048)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I am up in the race but outboarded.  I am not really threatening much but at the same time his position basically sucks.

I wasn't really sure what was going on here so I just doubled.

It turns out the position is Double / Pass.  I don't know if I would have guessed that.  I suppose the made ace point, combined with 3 men on the ace point and a generally stripped and streched position is just too damn ugly.  Also at play are some decent gammon vig at an elevated gammon value ATS.

************
Later in the same game.  5 away 5 away.  LAX holds the cube and I have 4 to play.

is lax score: 2 pip: 147

7 point match

pip: 131 score: 2 is Chutzpah

XGID=-aa-BBCbC---bC--Ba-c-ab-b-:1:-1:1:41:2:2:0:7:10

to play 41

1.	XG Roller+	6/2* 2/1*	eq: +0.669
	Player: Opponent: 71.07% (G:34.78% B:1.69%) 28.93% (G:8.08% B:0.16%)
2.	XG Roller+	13/8	eq: +0.418 (-0.251)
	Player: Opponent: 68.10% (G:20.36% B:0.64%) 31.90% (G:6.58% B:0.09%)
3.	2-ply	13/9 6/5	eq: +0.407 (-0.261)
	Player: Opponent: 67.70% (G:20.89% B:0.93%) 32.30% (G:7.24% B:0.13%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Here come the boneheads. Putting two up in the air (6/2*/1*) is the winner by far.

I was reluctant to do that considering I have no direct covers.  I moved the wussy 13/8. 

The key is the big play trades 3% extra losses for 14% extra gammons- a great deal. 
Note the extra blots from LAX is extra incentive to go for the gammon.  I need a new rule, opponent blots are like waving the red flag at the bull, charge!!

** Variant ** Note even with the 4 point covered (but the 8 point blot exposed) hitting two is still correct!! It's not a large error to play quiet (.03) but still an error. Gammons play double.
***********
Very next roll.  Time for another double whopper?  How do you play 33?

is lax score: 2 pip: 143

7 point match

pip: 126 score: 2 is Chutzpah

XGID=-aa-BBCbD---bB--B--c-bb-b-:1:-1:1:33:2:2:0:7:10

to play 33

1.	XG Roller+	8/2*(2)	eq: +0.759
	Player: Opponent: 73.91% (G:35.13% B:1.19%) 26.09% (G:5.90% B:0.12%)
2.	XG Roller+	16/10(2)	eq: +0.572 (-0.187)
	Player: Opponent: 75.33% (G:16.11% B:0.42%) 24.67% (G:3.19% B:0.03%)
3.	3-ply	13/10(2) 8/5(2)	eq: +0.610 (-0.149)
	Player: Opponent: 73.64% (G:23.16% B:0.80%) 26.36% (G:4.30% B:0.04%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Error come in pairs. At least I was consistent.  Consistently wrong that is.

I made the wimp-inspired play 16/10(2), simply trying to roll home to a clean win.

Much better was 8/2*(2).  Once again, the extra gammons for the big play dwarf the extra losses.
***********
One last mistake from this game.  How to play 21?

is lax score: 2 pip: 137

7 point match

pip: 49 score: 2 is Chutzpah

XGID=aCDaDBB--ac--------b-babb-:1:-1:1:21:2:2:0:7:10

to play 21

1.	XG Roller+	2/Off 1/Off	eq: +1.898
	Player: Opponent: 93.33% (G:81.34% B:0.73%) 6.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.	XG Roller+	4/3* 3/1	eq: +1.869 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 91.92% (G:82.36% B:0.30%) 8.08% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
3.	XG Roller+	6/5 6/4	eq: +1.847 (-0.051)
	Player: Opponent: 93.78% (G:76.74% B:0.38%) 6.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

OK so mistakes come in threes, not pairs.

Once again I opted for the super safe play, 6/5,6/4.  My mindset - a gammon is likely anyway, let's simply clear a point and try to win a clean game.

and once again this is the wrong idea.  My play wins a tiny amount more often, less than 1/2 of a percent.

On the other hand, the aggressive 2/off,1/off captures 4+ % more gammons.  Lesson: as always, look at those return blots as license to go for the kill!